Two under-discussed questions re: COVID

1/ First question: how much of the COVID epidemic in a country depends on its policies and the behavior of its citizens, and how much depends just on how concentrated was the virus in the country?
2/ For example, take two identical countries: same population, same climate, same culture, same policies. At the beginning of the pandemic, 100 COVID patients are parachuted in country A and 100k in country B. Clearly, country B will have many more cases.
3/ How much virus is in a country is a clear factor influencing the course of the pandemic inside it.

And yet, policies and outcomes are compared as if it didn't matter (example: Sweden got it easy, so Lombardy didn't have to go full lockdown – that's a fallacious argument)
4/ Second question: how much of the Herd Immunity Threshold depends not just on the virus and our immune system, but on how the virus is distributed across cities of a country?
5/ For example, imagine a country made of two identical cities, A and B. City A has 80% of habitants infected. City B has 20%. The country would see the total number of infections slow down. It might therefore conclude that the HIT is 50% (the average of 20% and 80%).

However,
6/ …however, the real threshold is 80%. The slowdown shows earlier just because of how cases are distributed.
7/ It seems to me that those two hypotheses are plausible and yet not discussed much.

If you know of reasons why they should be impossible, please let me know! Thank you.

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

24 Mar
ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS AND ANTIFRAGILE ORGANIZATIONS

It's extremely important to think of populations and organizations as adaptive systems.

When you make a new policy, what matters is not what the policy intends to achieve, but how the population adapts to it.

(thread, 1/N)
2/ In management, it's critical to understand that your team is an adaptive system: they adapt to their workplace and to your actions.

Skills & motivations are largely an adaptation to the work environments in which they work (or worked).
3/ This is why, for example, as a manager you want to take decisions not just for their immediate effect but for the behaviors that they make more likely in the future.

(example in the next tweet)
Read 9 tweets
23 Mar
According to the EU chief negotiator, early on some EU countries didn't want to commit on ordering enough doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine. If Germany and Denmark didn't buy extra doses, the contracts would not have signed.

1/3
2/ Apparently, what happened is something along these lines:
– EU negotiates to buy, say, 200M doses from Pfizer
– Each country has the right to a share of it (pro-capita basis)
– If some countries commits to less than its share, others must commit for more, or the contract fails
3/ This happened at a time in which there wasn't full certainty on the vaccine efficacy and/or their approval.

The list of countries which didn't commit enough is not public.
Read 4 tweets
20 Mar
THEORETICAL VS PRACTICAL SKIN IN THE GAME

In theory, everyone living in the EU has skin in the game in the COVID reaction, because if we screw it they and their families are at higher risk of being infected.

In practice, it is not enough.

1/2
2/ One problem of the interconnected world is that skin in the game must be faster in its action. That's because it's faster and easier than ever to make a mistake that affects millions.
3/ In practice, to avoid major disasters, skin in the game must either have some element of quasi certainty (you will get sick, you will get caught).
Read 7 tweets
19 Mar
ON IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR

Four years ago exactly, I published my first book on irrational behavior and resistance to change.

To commemorate the occasion, for the next week, I'll post an excerpt a day and some reviews.

(thread, 1/N)

gum.co/heuristic
2/ First excerpt: we don't have a decision-making problem but an action-taking one. Image
3/ Most times, we do not procrastinate because we have something else to do. Instead, we find ourselves something else to do because we procrastinate.
Read 5 tweets
19 Mar
FOR A SAFER REOPENING

I took the freedom to translate the quoted thread, as it is very important. HT @XFaure for having shared it earlier.

It has great ideas, see tweets #9 and #18 below.

Translation adapted for brevity 👇👇👇 in the thread, 1/N

2/ Can we estimate a measure of the infections risks, so that we can free from the lockdowns all activities that are low-risk, while keeping away from the few high-risk ones?

The answer is yes.
3/ Let's begin with the basics. The probability of infection depends on the viral load we receive (i.e., the cumulative number of virus particles breathed in).

The denser the virus in the air, the higher the load.

Similarly, the longer we inhale, the higher the load.
Read 18 tweets
19 Mar
I don’t know re: fundraising, but my advice re: job interviews is similar.

Assume the first 3 will be NOs, just because you need specific practice. Do them with companies that are not first choices. Learning opportunities.

Then, you’re ready for shooting at your mark.
And if by any chance you get an offer at a company you don’t like, just refuse. You’ll still gain confidence & information about salary negotiations, interviews, etc.

They’ll make you better at interviewing at companies you want to work for, and at eventual salary negotiations
I personally began interviewing during my second year of university. I only accepted a job during my last one. All that experience doing interviews meant I could filter bad employers and get a good shot at my preferred one, for which I ended up working for 3 fulfilling years.
Read 4 tweets

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