Minnesota’s vaccination rate remains flat at around 40,000 doses per day, but there’s good news under the hood, as the number of people with 1+ dose is trending upward — it’s just counterbalanced by a decline in people getting 2nd doses (largely deteremined 3-4 weeks ago).
As a result, with MN now giving around 24K first doses per day, the target date for vaccinating most adults is moving up to mid-June.
And we have reason to expect a huge supply increase in the next week that will move this up even faster.
The vaccination rate continues to plummet for seniors (who may be close to maxed out in most parts of MN) while it’s rising for younger Minnesotans.
For example, in large swathes of the state (including Hennepin and Ramsey) between 80 and 90% of seniors already have at least one dose. Given that we we don’t know about the vaccination status of snowbirds, this could be just about everyone.
Meanwhile new #COVID19 cases continue to rise in Minnesota. Cases, positivity rate and hospitalizations have all risen about 50% over the past weeks, though since they started from low bases (especially positivity) we’re not yet into full-on wave territory yet.
#COVID19 deaths, meanwhile, have bounced up a bit the last few days after Monday’s 0-death day. But the magnitude of the change is small.
Minnesota’s recent rise in #COVID19 cases isn’t being driven by any one particular region or age group:
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1/ So yesterday #mnleg Rep. @jeremymunson rolled out a proposal that western Minnesota should secede and join South Dakota. It’s not going to happen, but I’m a nerd, and instead of doing the dishes last night spent hours doin' math & makin’ graphics. mprnews.org/story/2021/03/…
@jeremymunson 2/ First, the basics: the 64 MN counties @jeremymunson proposes to secede have around 1.6M people. That means that South Dakota would actually be the junior partner in this merger, with fewer than 900K residents.
The denser non-seceding MN counties have just under 4M people.
3/ The seceding counties (“ex-Minnesota”) have a per-capita GDP of around $51K/person. That's poorer than either Old SD ($63K/person) or the counties that wouldn’t secede in this scenario (a whopping $76K/person).
Minnesota is expanding #COVID19 vaccine eligibility next week to all adults, in anticipation of a big increase in vaccine supply. So far, MN’s been trucking along giving 40K total doses/24K first doses per day. This will likely rise, a lot, in the next week or two.
The Minnesota groups that are becoming vaccine-eligible next week number number about 1.15M people. While everyone’s eligible, some providers may still prioritize people with more risk or more essential jobs for their limited vaccine supply.
About 80% of Minnesota seniors, 1/3 of Minnesotans 50-64, 20% of adults 18-49, and a small share of 16- and 17-year-olds have at least one dose.
16 newly reported #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota today, the highest in two weeks. This includes what looks like a cluster of 4 elderly Lac Qui Parle County residents.
Never overreact to any one day of data, of course. The weekly average is up to 7.5 deaths/day.
New #COVID19 cases are still rising up to an average of nearly 1,300 per day, compared to 850/day two weeks ago.
But the past two weeks have seen a rise in testing, too — perhaps back-to-school, perhaps more people with symptoms or known exposure seeking out tests. This is probably contributing a little bit to the rise in cases (but only at the margins).
Newly reported #COVID19 vaccine doses in MN dropped only slightly week-over-week today. BUT beneath these totals, amid supply disruptions cancelling vaccine appointments, *first doses* are plummeting, offset by second doses still rising.
MN has been administering far more doses than it’s received over the past week. Still no sign of overall doses meaningfully declining.
Deaths, positivity rate and cases are all pretty much flat in Minnesota, week-over-week:
Newly administered #COVID19 vaccine doses in Minnesota are flat again today. No drop YET from recent disrupted supply. BUT more and more of doses administered have been *second shots*, with first doses declining steadily the past few days.
When I say “disrupted supply,” this is what I mean. (The polar vortex has wreaked havoc on supply.)
Around 13% of Minnesotans have received at least one #COVID19 vaccine dose, including nearly 40% of seniors.
Another decent day of newly reported #COVID19 vaccinations, but basically flat week-over-week. More significant that we’re still not seeing the expected drop due to polar vortex supply issues. Could still be coming, though!
One wringle, though: new FIRST DOSES have been pretty flat for weeks now, averaging about 15K new 1st doses per day. The past week’s increases in doses administered have been driven by a rise in people getting their second doses. So this is just an echo of the late-Jan. spike.
Newly reported #COVID19 deaths ticked slightly upward today — 11 reported today, against 7 last Saturday — but the trend is still lower than any time in the last 5 months except for yesterday.