Thread by @amlivemon

Range Bound Dollar

Bullish US$ capped at 93-95 DXY
·         US vaccine distribution has surpassed every modernized nation (except the UK)
·         US Fed/Treasury actions would want to limit the perception of failing dollar

US Fed/Treasury actions to improve its purchasing power in order to combat commodity inflation 
·         EU banking sector insolvency issues
·         EU manufactures lockdown/political upheaval to lower euro

·         Fed distraction with bonds/rates to worry about rising dollar
·         Weaponization of the dollar to politically stress adversaries (Turkey, Russia, China, etc)
·         Dollar shortage within the EU and China, forcing sales of USTs to raise reserves

·         US military engagement in conflict zones
·         Geopolitical issues disrupt supply chains
Bearish US$ limited to 87-90 DXY
·         Fed buys euros to lower dollar, boost asset markets
·         Dollar weakened due to US political upheaval, progressive policies

·         Lower dollar wanted to boost exports
·         Congress raises taxes, capital flees
·         Lockdowns re-emerge as Democrats wish to hide an underperforming economy
·         Multiple stimulus programs next 18 months

·         Implementation of MMT style programmes by progressive initiatives 

We expect the dollar to be sideways choppy, but remain within the above upper and lower bounds until a catalyst, such as a geopolitical supply chain conflict (US$ positive), EU banking sector crisis

(US$ positive) or Biden resignation (US$ negative) would tip the Dollar aggressively one way or the other.