Stimulus Game of Chicken
w Update

Stimulus was on track to pass 2 weeks ago until Trump had contracted COVID. Nancy Pelosi, smelling political advantage, began stalling the bill and citing COVID related concerns to use the issue as an aggregator for the election.

The problem
that Pelosi had run into is gross miscalculation of her political leverage and the risk associated with stalling stimulus checks and UI on the down tickets of House races. Originally, the Dems were going to lose 8-10 seats but this error in judgment will now likely cause 10-15
seats if not more.

Now, Trump and Mnuchin have the advantage in political perception of delayed stimulus and will turn the screws on Nancy so long as it makes election sense. Next week we will see a Senate bill passing PPP and UI benefits which only increases pressure on
Pelosi to come to an agreement.


Nancy Pelosi’s miscalculations stem from her insistence on being the responsible party of Trump’s November loss. This is the basis of her political miscalculation and her stringent stance on minor details of the stimulus bill when
she saw Trump’s COVID results. Yesterday at 2pm, she held a call with Democratic members of the House where they had expressed their deep dissatisfaction of her leadership. It has become clear that Pelosi’s time as Leader of the House Democrats is coming to an end.
McConnell now has smelled blood in the water and has weaponized Pelosi’s miscalculations to attempt to win back Senate races in Michigan and Minnesota. With a projected +2 seat result for Democrats, a turn where the GOP negate those Senate seat gains would be a devastating
result and would call into question their long term 2022 strategy to win back majority in the Senate.

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More from @amlivemon

12 Oct
Firstly, bear in mind, Presidential EOs are the back stop, especially for  UI and PPP.
However, as our very own @Halsrethink states, Pelosi’s rejection of the $1.8 trillion offer is more about the details of its content, and the
treatment of possible add-ons, such as aid for airlines. Talks have been ongoing over the weekend, despite the tactical public rhetoric, as evidenced by the following headlines yesterday:
I would also recommend reading
Pelosi’s actual statement, which can be found on her website here, as opposed to the more sensationalist headlines of the press.
Then, according to Fox News, between 10 and 12 GOP Senators would support the above offer, including Ted Cruz. Add that number to the 47 Democrat
Read 20 tweets
30 Sep
Beginning of last week, the prospects of a stimulus deal were all but zero, however, as the political winds in the Beltway began to shift, our speculation of a new effort to pass legislation addressing PPP, unemployment benefits and
targeted recovery efforts started to gain traction and became a reality mid-week.
Pelosi and Mnuchin had started discussions on a bipartisan bill as early as last weekend, which prompted Pelosi’s staff to dust off a messaging bill labeled Heroes Act 2.0. This bill was meant
purely to address political talking points for her constituents during the election cycle. It was in no way intended, nor expected, to pass the Senate with GOP opposition to multiple points.
Mnuchin today will likely introduce a counter offer of $1.5 trillion which is a direct
Read 6 tweets
20 Sep
Pennsylvania is trending Trump

Pennsylvania county-by-county numbers on voter registration:

Blair:: R+708
Centre: R+291
Clearfield: R+592
Columbia: R+312
Huntingdon: R+189
Juniata: R+147
Mifflin: R+341
Montour: R+71
North Central
Bradford: R+325
Cameron: R+37
Clinton: R+305
Elk: R+286
Lycoming: R+688
McKean: R+180
Potter: R+73
Sullivan: R+33
Tioga: R+287
Carbon: R+324
Lackawanna: R+470
Luzerne: R+1,423
Monroe: R+64
Pike: R+210
Schuylkill: R+621
Susquehanna: R+227
Wayne: R+200
Wyoming: R+149
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep
When dealing with a politically driven economy/market...relationships to leadership, a company’s locations and # of employees are key to determining the likelihood of government backstop support & your place in line for stimulus packages.

Tenneco $TEN is as good of an example
as you get today. Icahn has been playing his activist investor shtick around Wall Street for more than 50 years and made himself a fortune. His relationship with Trump is very public, his activist play on Tenneco is well documented & Tenneco occupies key locations in the Midwest.
A formidable voting block tied to the auto industry that the Trump administration is currently working on a stimulus package to boost the entire sector. Trump needs to seal up Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Tenneco, just like YRC Worldwide, has extensive workers with
Read 4 tweets
26 Aug
Stabilization, Inflation, and Rotation

What in the world is driving this market? Answers across Twitter have become complex monetary and fiscal theories with fancy charts and academic writings flying around. But what if the answer is much more simple than people assume?
What if, theoretically, the Fed/Treasury had called upon the biggest market makers & directed them to buy equities to manipulate the market into a artificial recovery? This strategy is not new. This was done in 1907 & 1987(Buffett & Goldman Sachs were involved previously)
Crisis situations will need crisis solutions, whether political or economic, the system circles the wagons to protect itself. Most of the equities in this “theory” would be distributed across market makers however you could “theoretically” see such action by a fund with an
Read 12 tweets
13 Aug
November 2020 Election Update

Key Issues to note:

Corn/Ethanol Politics
Swap line cutbacks, market contraction mid September?
Mail-in and Early voting begin in September(PA & MI)
Stimulus 2.0 fight going into mid September
Haley to the Trump poll rescue?
Census fight?
The looming August-September stimulus package will be negotiated between Pelosi and McConnell to place both political parties in their election narrative positions as September voting begins. House Dems want to extend the $600 a week unemployment benefit as the GOP is looking to
cut it to $200-$400 as it pushes for businesses reopening and a surge in rehiring laid off workers. Primary issues however, will be small business lending program extension and agriculture political issues yet unresolved.

To pass a sweeping stimulus package of $2-2.5 trillion,
Read 9 tweets

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