Thread by @amlivemon

Stimulus Game of Chicken
/
w Update

Stimulus was on track to pass 2 weeks ago until Trump had contracted COVID. Nancy Pelosi, smelling political advantage, began stalling the bill and citing COVID related concerns to use the issue as an aggregator for the election.

The problem

https://twitter.com/GaryHaubold/status/1317137261088079872

that Pelosi had run into is gross miscalculation of her political leverage and the risk associated with stalling stimulus checks and UI on the down tickets of House races. Originally, the Dems were going to lose 8-10 seats but this error in judgment will now likely cause 10-15

seats if not more.

Now, Trump and Mnuchin have the advantage in political perception of delayed stimulus and will turn the screws on Nancy so long as it makes election sense. Next week we will see a Senate bill passing PPP and UI benefits which only increases pressure on

Pelosi to come to an agreement.

Update:

Nancy Pelosi’s miscalculations stem from her insistence on being the responsible party of Trump’s November loss. This is the basis of her political miscalculation and her stringent stance on minor details of the stimulus bill when

she saw Trump’s COVID results. Yesterday at 2pm, she held a call with Democratic members of the House where they had expressed their deep dissatisfaction of her leadership. It has become clear that Pelosi’s time as Leader of the House Democrats is coming to an end.

McConnell now has smelled blood in the water and has weaponized Pelosi’s miscalculations to attempt to win back Senate races in Michigan and Minnesota. With a projected +2 seat result for Democrats, a turn where the GOP negate those Senate seat gains would be a devastating

result and would call into question their long term 2022 strategy to win back majority in the Senate.