I have no idea if Ds will blow up the filibuster. But the anti-filibuster crowd has the momentum now (breathe @AJentleson)
We've spent a lot of time over the last few days talking to sources -- & each other -- ab the filibuster. Here are 5 reasons to blow it up & 5 reason not to
Why @SenSchumer should do it: 1) Passing priorities. If Biden & Schumer want to move anything beyond most basic legislation, or to do so without using reconciliation, they need to get rid of the filibuster. Doesnt mean he'll always be successful, but if he leaves it, he'll fail
2) Different pages: There’s very little common ground between the two parties on any issue right now. In the aftermath of the Donald Trump era, hyper-partisanship is the order of the day. The political center is a lonely place. So why bother looking for Rs to work with at all?
3) Democrats are very likely to lose the House in 2022. The president’s party loses an average of 26 seats in the first midterm election. Plus, @SpeakerPelosi is retiring. Push stuff now. This is your chance.
4) Democrats don’t believe there’s any long-term risk for them. In reality, what’s the downside for Democrats here? The American public just wants results, they don’t care about arcane arguments over the sanctity of the filibuster and minority rights. Do it. Now.
5) Schumer’s own politics, both inside caucus and back home. Progressives inside the Senate Democratic Caucus want the filibuster gone and would be overjoyed if Schumer pulled the trigger. And it would take away a talking point from @AOC or any other primary challenger in 22
1) This would permanently alter the nature of the Senate. Senate would become more and more like the House, where the majority rules. Filibuster critics would argue that’s a good thing but something very special ab the Senate would be lost
2) @McConnell ain’t playing. McConnell has threatened “to turn the Senate into a sort of nuclear winter” if Democrats go nuclear. In a body that runs by unanimous consent requests and agreements, Rs would object to even trivial actions. Trust McConnell here. he'll make life hard
3) Senate Ds will be back in the minority at some point. Rs will just ram bills down their throats for two straight years, and there’ll be nothing they can do it about. Didn’t Democrats learn the lesson of 13. They got rid of filibuster for noms in 13 and Trump got 3 SC justices
4) Dramatic swings in policy depending on who’s in control. This doesn’t get talked about all that much. Changing presidents, of course, results in big swings in public policies. But changing Senate majorities does too.
5) Tremendous pressure to pass a slew of House bills. Moderate Ds would face intense pressure to sign off on a slew of House-passed legislation. the House is much more progressive than the Senate. The difference isn’t as dramatic as in the past, but it still exists.
On infra: Biden is set to lay out his infrastructure plan in Pittsburgh next wk
2 main topics: Traditional and human infra
@PunchbowlNews The traditional infrastructure piece is expected to be worth $2T
→ H.R. 2: A beefed up version of the House’s infrastructure bill
→ The pay-for here is hiking the corporate tax rate. WH convinced that corporate tax hikes are popular with the base and Rs.
@PunchbowlNews The “human infrastructure” piece is roughly $1 trillion. It includes:
→ Free community college, universal preschool, child care, paid leave, long-term care and prescription drug overhaul.
→ The pay-for here is hiking individual rate and closing the carried interest loophole
@PunchbowlNews One of the ironies of the Covid lockdowns of the last year was the number of mass shootings went down, although shootings and gun violence overall rose. But as the country reopens, there have been two mass shootings in six days.
@PunchbowlNews Let’s be abundantly clear: A majority of the House supports some sort of overhaul of gun laws. It’s not clear that a majority of the Senate does -- and, frankly, right now, it doesn’t matter. Filibuster will force 60 votes either way
In @PunchbowlNews this AM — We lay out a probable/plausible scenario for infrastructure based on where the Biden admin has been.
Subscribe — at bit.ly/3hAJJiy … email me with thoughts, comments, etc.
Also going to do a *thread* here ….
@PunchbowlNews Q1: The Biden administration felt strongly that they needed to come out of the gate quickly with the American Rescue Plan. They knew it was big, and they knew it was expensive.
@PunchbowlNews And, frankly, they knew it probably wouldn’t get GOP support. But the White House was absolutely committed to nearly every policy proposal included in the bill -- many of which were in the House-passed Heroes Act last year.
☀️ @PunchbowlNews this AM: What do Republicans stand for?
We are 600 days from the midterm elections -- it was a good hook, relax, we don’t have a countdown clock.
But try to answer this: What do Republicans stand for as a party?
@PunchbowlNews We ask because as the 117th Congress unfolds, and lawmakers continue to process what happened on Election Day and Jan. 6, we’re trying to get a sense of what the political landscape is like in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s presidency.
@PunchbowlNews Democrats, of course, will follow President Joe Biden’s lead -- a surprisingly progressive approach to governing that’s designed to be a blend between compassion and competence. We’ll see if he and they can pull it off.
Some of these are pricey: Houston, Philly and Chicago. Gotta spend a LOT to make a dent
Sometimes outside group ad buys are designed to make members feel happy and get the publicity that they bought the ad, not make a difference in the electorate.
We got an ad-buying source to lay out where these ads are running, for how long and for how much — CRITICAL info