1/4

The Ontario Science Table on March 23, published this report essentially recommending AGAINST asymptomatic testing of LTC staff, citing:

-Consistent low %pos of staff in screening
-Vaccination protection of LTC residents

Key observations follow...
covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/r…
2/4

Observation 1

54% of Ontario C19 deaths were among ~80k LTC residents. OST is essentially confirming this population is protected.

Ex-LTC, Ontario C19 deaths =~23 per 100,000 (in line with flu/pneumonia deaths in 🇨🇦).
C19 Survival rate excluding outbreak deaths 70+ =99.2%
3/4

Observation 2

OST indicates/quantifies the extremely low test % positivity of LTC staff in screen testing.

This seems contradictory to the OST conclusion that community incidence of C19 is the key predictor of LTC outbreaks.

Perhaps there is an explanation? cc:@drbobbell
4/4

Lastly, Observation 3

OST essentially recommending against asymptomatic testing for higher risk LTC locations, yet we still continue to asymptomatically test in schools where C19 mortality risk is extremely low.

File under "confusing".

End.
ottawacitizen.com/news/local-new…

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More from @rubiconcapital_

15 Mar
Ontario Science Table lockdown policy, backed by @fordnation, @JohnTory & @epdevilla, appears to have dramatically shifted C-19 disease burden onto the low income, high visible minority, high household density, high service worker areas of Toronto.

Shocking #’s & visuals follow. Image
First, a message to vulnerable communities:

In my opinion, health/govt officials put you in harms way. They⬆️your mobility *relative to the population*, shifting community disease burden onto you. They did not care about you. They cared about themselves and their failed policy.
We know there were relative disease burden differences. But to what degree?
Read 18 tweets
5 Mar
1/ Mass Vaccination – Why Do We Need it in Ontario (or anywhere?)

- LTC residents nearly vaccinated (55% of C-19 mortality)
- Progress in the most vulnerable (70+, 87% of mortality, 12% of pop)

A short thread with clips & charts, based on my recent video
2/ The public health messaging is clear—everybody needs a vaccine.

Dr. DeVilla of Toronto: “the sooner we have needles in arms and the more needles in arms we have, the better off we all are.”

(all clips from March 1, 2021 pressers)
3/ Dr. Williams, the Chief Doctor in Ontario:

“Wait for your vaccine, it's coming, we want everybody vaccinated, not just some, we want everybody done in a timely pattern.”
Read 18 tweets
31 Jan
Sensational article appealing to emotions, claiming Toronto ICUs "struggling with younger C19 patients". The headline may have you think ICU is in onslaught with young kids. ICUs are challenged, but the following charts don't match this narrative. 1/
twitter.com/i/events/13559…
Here are percentage of total COVID19 ICU admissions by age group in the 1st vs 2nd wave. Extremely low 6% of all ICU admissions in Under 39 ages, with only minimal changes in overall ICU admission mix in older ages. So the age mix of patients is roughly similar.
Here is the actual number of daily ICU admissions by age group... Under 39, 40-69, 70+....
Yes, we see the older ages are increasing... just like they were in the first wave...
Under 39 ages? ABOUT 1 ICU ADMISSION EVERY 5 DAYS.
Read 8 tweets
25 Jan
1/ It's hopeless, a thread.
2/ In the city of Toronto’s COVID19 update today, @epdevilla confirmed all first-round vaccines have been delivered at *ALL 87* of the city’s long-term care facilities and high-risk retirement homes.
3/ That’s great news !!

54.6% of Toronto’s fatalities occurred in these at risk groups…
…and excluding the high-risk LTC population…
…Toronto’s case fatality rate is 0.68%
…and just * 0.21% * in the under 69 population !

(see graph next tweet)
Read 9 tweets
24 Jan
That may currently be true, @BeateSander, but:

1. @DFisman (Science Table member) has helped Scarsin (a for-profit disease modelling software company) lobby the Ford gov't; and

2. York Region (1.2m people) currently uses the Scarsin platform. Image
From the Scarsin website: Image
Read 4 tweets
12 Jan
Please look at these 2 images very carefully & share widely.

Left Image: from today in a doom tweet from @SharkawyMD showing 410 & rising COVID19 ICU patients in Ontario.

Right Image: from Dec 11, when there were 247 COVID19 ICU patients.

BUT THE OVERALL ICU CENSUS IS SIMILAR!
Here is ER Doc @JeanmarcBenoit' tweet. He has been trying to convey overall ICU census is stable *despite* COVID19 census increasing steadily.
And here is @SharkawyMD's tweet from today; again showing similar overall ICU census, despite COVID19 patient census increasing.
Read 4 tweets

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