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Kelly Brown Profile picture
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24 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
That may currently be true, @BeateSander, but:

1. @DFisman (Science Table member) has helped Scarsin (a for-profit disease modelling software company) lobby the Ford gov't; and

2. York Region (1.2m people) currently uses the Scarsin platform. Image
From the Scarsin website: Image
ca.movies.yahoo.com/looking-covid-…
dlsph.utoronto.ca/2020/12/dlsph-…

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Kelly Brown Profile picture
25 Jan
1/ It's hopeless, a thread.
2/ In the city of Toronto’s COVID19 update today, @epdevilla confirmed all first-round vaccines have been delivered at *ALL 87* of the city’s long-term care facilities and high-risk retirement homes.
3/ That’s great news !!

54.6% of Toronto’s fatalities occurred in these at risk groups…
…and excluding the high-risk LTC population…
…Toronto’s case fatality rate is 0.68%
…and just * 0.21% * in the under 69 population !

(see graph next tweet)
Read 9 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
12 Jan
Please look at these 2 images very carefully & share widely.

Left Image: from today in a doom tweet from @SharkawyMD showing 410 & rising COVID19 ICU patients in Ontario.

Right Image: from Dec 11, when there were 247 COVID19 ICU patients.

BUT THE OVERALL ICU CENSUS IS SIMILAR!
Here is ER Doc @JeanmarcBenoit' tweet. He has been trying to convey overall ICU census is stable *despite* COVID19 census increasing steadily.
And here is @SharkawyMD's tweet from today; again showing similar overall ICU census, despite COVID19 patient census increasing.
Read 4 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
11 Jan
Pointing out some interesting peculiarities in the recent Ontario #COVID19 case and mortality data. This brief thread is a bit technical.

These peculiarities are similar to those identified in the UK data by @ClareCraigPath and @RealJoelSmalley
The % Positivity and daily deaths by Date of Death trends meaningfully diverged for the first time during the first two weeks of November…
In the 1st wave, correlation between (i) deaths by date of death and (ii) fatal cases with an episode date 12 days prior was almost perfect, with R=0.983 and R^2=0.976…

The second chart shows the onset-to-fatality lag correlation signal…
Read 12 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
3 Jan
"Global Canada” (@GlobalCanadaOrg) appears to be the funder of the #CanadianShield strategy (@csc_canada_), essentially a #COVIDZero rebrand, supported by Ont Science Table members. It seeks extended, hard-lockdowns Canadawide.

Global Canada is funded by Bill Gates’ Foundation…
Global Canada (“GC”) is run by Executive Chairman, Robert Greenhill (@RobertGreenhill). Mr. Greenhill is a former high-ranking official at the World Economic Forum, serving as Managing Director and Chief Business Officer for 6 years until 2014, when he founded Global Canada…
Global Canada (“GC”) was founded in 2015 and has since received three grants as disclosed on the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation website. The first two were in November 2015/2016 and total a modest ~$1.3m…

(more on the 3rd, more recent grant in a moment)
Read 22 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
2 Jan
Quick summary of the total *garbage* economic “analysis” by @csc_canada_ and the #CanadianShield folks (aka #COVIDZero). This is their “evidence” for more damaging, widespread lockdowns in Canada, which I now believe are inevitable given this new PR push….
It starts with a completely made up, fancy acronym called “STUDIO” as the name for the “model", to presumably give it an air of legitimacy...
It was “completed quickly” and designed to inform policymakers (so it will have the ear of government)…
Read 12 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
2 Jan
I believe we're now in danger of full Canadawide "hard-lockdown" for at least 3 months. This is the appalling #COVIDZero strategy unofficially supported by the Science Table, rebranded as #CanadianShield. Economy/society won't make it 'til Spring. ⬇️is based on garbage analysis!
This is the thin, bankrupt economic analysis the group puts forth, which contains no analytical rigor, and assumes the economy can bounce immediately to full capacity and the "end" of a lockdown. Utter absurdity. drive.google.com/file/d/1ZDcal5…
There is no evidence of a deadly epidemic in the community....
Read 13 tweets

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