Egypt refurbished its missile engine test stands in early 2020. Time for a quick thread on the Jabal Hamza test site, Egypt's liquid propellant missile program, and what (little) we know about its current status.
The Jabal Hamza test site goes back to the 1960s, when German engineers tried to develop an ambitious liquid-propellant missile arsenal for Nasser. The program eventually failed with the Germans and Egyptians unable to produce a working missile.
In the process however, they managed to establish a missile production and testing infrastructure in the country. This included a static test stand at Jabal Hamza (30.129° 30.605°). Two extremely rare photos from a German documentary show the test stand as it appeared in the 60s
A second test stand was built in 1967 (30.127422° 30.612736°). Since the Germans had left by then, it remains entirely unclear who built it. Also, 2007 satellite imagery indicates the test stand might have been left unfinished.
Egypt, at least temporarily gave up its plans for domestic missile development and ordered Soviet Scuds instead. When this source dried up after the country's change of alliances in the 70s, Egypt sent several Scud missiles to the DPRK for reverse-engineering in the early 80s.
This was also the period when Egypt's missile program fell completely silent. The parade that witnessed Anwar Sadat's assassination in 1981 was also the very last time an Egyptian missile was shown in public. In fact you can see one in the dramatic footage of the event.
North Korea succeeded in reverse-engineering Scuds and then sold a whole production line to Egypt. The production effort was centered around the Saqr factory, the facility originally established as Factory 333 for the German-led missile effort. (30.084074° 31.393664°)
OSINT fun fact: Located next to Cairo International airport you get an amazing amount of high quality footage of the factory taken from landing planes.
What happened next is entirely unclear. Some sources talk about improvements to the basic Scud design, others about an Egyptian interest in the Nodong. Whether Nodong tech was actually acquired remains a mystery.
Yet there continued to be signs that Egypt's missile program was still alive. In 2010, the Egyptians either modified or finally completed the second test stand at Jabal Hamza equipping it with a superstructure, a covered flame trench and a blast shield.
From 2007 to 2010, the Egyptians also built this mysterious structure at Jabal Hamza which might either be an avant-garde storage bunker design, a liquid-propellant motor test stand or an unfinished space launch pad.
In 2013, a North Korean shipment of Scud parts destined for Egypt was intercepted, indicating at least the Scud effort seems to continue. nytimes.com/2018/03/03/wor…
In early 2020, the aforementioned refurbishment of both test stands took place. This included larger blast walls as well as a repair of flame bucked covers, which could hold cooling elements. So the liquid program still appears to be active.
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So what are the Egyptians working on? It's very difficult to know. One data point is a 2013 statement by retired military intelligence brigadier general Muhsin Saad Metwalli, who claimed Egypt produced a 3000km missile with Russian, Chinese and Korean assistance. However...
it is entirely unclear where he got his information from. It could be official information gained during his duty or just some military gossip.
The US is clearly not interested in showcasing the missile capabilities of its close ally either. Until 2009 the 'Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat' reports still mentioned Egyptian Scuds. Newer reports do not mention Egypt at all.
The Houthis are going underground. In 2019, the movement seems to have reactivated a Saleh-era underground facility at Hafa military base in Sanaa, which had been destroyed by coalition airstrikes back in 2015. (15.325075° 44.239581°)
Piles of tailings showing up near the Southern entrance to the site also indicate tunelling work and a potential expansion of the old site.
What appears to be another reactivated tunnel entrance can be observed at Sanaa's Nahdayn military base. (15.303035° 44.217263°)
Joint investigation by @AuroraIntel and me. Last weekend, a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis at Dhahran seems to have impacted in an open field, less than half a mile away from Aramco worker housing. Thread
Last Sunday saw an attack on the tri-city area of Dammam, Dhahran and Khobar with the the Houthis claiming to have attacked targets in Ras Tanura and the Khobar region using drones as well as a single Zulfiqar missile.
A video circulating on social media showed what appear to be interceptor missiles in the sky, as a loud blast can be heard in the background.