So what are the Egyptians working on? It's very difficult to know. One data point is a 2013 statement by retired military intelligence brigadier general Muhsin Saad Metwalli, who claimed Egypt produced a 3000km missile with Russian, Chinese and Korean assistance. However...
it is entirely unclear where he got his information from. It could be official information gained during his duty or just some military gossip.
The US is clearly not interested in showcasing the missile capabilities of its close ally either. Until 2009 the 'Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat' reports still mentioned Egyptian Scuds. Newer reports do not mention Egypt at all.
Could there be potential Egyptian space ambitions? Well, the country already operates a number of satellites launched abroad (you might be familiar with Nilesats). However, there are some indications, Egypt's might want to go beyond that.
In 2018, Egypt passed a law that established the Egyptian Space Agency (30.050° 31.607°) and states that among the agency's tasks will be the construction of Egyptian satellites as well as their launch from Egyptian territory.
egyptindependent.com/sisi-passes-la…
Again, we don't know whether that's a vague future ambition or whether Egyptian engineers are already working on a space launcher.
Will we see more in openness in the future? Difficult to say. Iran is currently demonstrating that an open missile program has lots of benefits when it comes to deterrence. But then again, old OPSEC habits die hard.
Egypt's new capital includes a dedicated square for military parades indicating it will resume the practice of large scale military parades four decades after Sadat's assassination. Will they also include missiles? Only time will tell...
End.

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More from @fab_hinz

26 Mar
Folks, we👏have👏to👏talk👏about👏decolonizing👏nonproliferation👏 THREAD
Inspired by the trailblazing research of @TitaniaMcGrath, I hereby present my totally serious suggestions for making nonproliferation a diverse and safe space for everyone. Get into listening mode everyone! 💅
The term 'heavy isotopes' is a clear instance of fat-shaming which in itself is a vile expression of white msyoginistic patriarchy. We need to acknowledge the harm this language has caused and from now on use the body-positive term 'thicc isotopes' instead. 💃♀️🍟🍟🍟🍔🍔🍔
Read 14 tweets
25 Mar
Egypt refurbished its missile engine test stands in early 2020. Time for a quick thread on the Jabal Hamza test site, Egypt's liquid propellant missile program, and what (little) we know about its current status.
The Jabal Hamza test site goes back to the 1960s, when German engineers tried to develop an ambitious liquid-propellant missile arsenal for Nasser. The program eventually failed with the Germans and Egyptians unable to produce a working missile.
In the process however, they managed to establish a missile production and testing infrastructure in the country. This included a static test stand at Jabal Hamza (30.129° 30.605°). Two extremely rare photos from a German documentary show the test stand as it appeared in the 60s
Read 13 tweets
14 Mar
The Houthis are going underground. In 2019, the movement seems to have reactivated a Saleh-era underground facility at Hafa military base in Sanaa, which had been destroyed by coalition airstrikes back in 2015. (15.325075° 44.239581°)
Piles of tailings showing up near the Southern entrance to the site also indicate tunelling work and a potential expansion of the old site.
What appears to be another reactivated tunnel entrance can be observed at Sanaa's Nahdayn military base. (15.303035° 44.217263°)
Read 6 tweets
11 Mar
Great high-res video of the Houthi missile exhibition
More footage (including testing of the Qasim 1
And the Nakal
Read 5 tweets
11 Mar
Joint investigation by @AuroraIntel and me. Last weekend, a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis at Dhahran seems to have impacted in an open field, less than half a mile away from Aramco worker housing. Thread
Last Sunday saw an attack on the tri-city area of Dammam, Dhahran and Khobar with the the Houthis claiming to have attacked targets in Ras Tanura and the Khobar region using drones as well as a single Zulfiqar missile.
A video circulating on social media showed what appear to be interceptor missiles in the sky, as a loud blast can be heard in the background.
Read 18 tweets
11 Mar
New Houthi missiles just dropped! Let's take a look at what's new here. via @AuroraIntel
First, there is the entirely new Qasim solid-propellant missile.
Then there is the Saeer, also entirely new and solid-propellant.
Read 13 tweets

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