Hanlon’s Razor is wrong.

“Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”

The right aspect: When you disagree with other ppl, it’s very common to assume it’s because of their malice, and it’s usually wrong.

But stupidity isn’t the answer either
Ppl might have:
Different goals
Different incentives
Different data
Different experiences
Different assumptions
Different aspects of the same conclusion highlighted
Different processing of the same info.
A different processing of the same info might be better or worse.

If better, you might assume they disagree with you because of malice or stupidity, when in fact you’re just wrong.

If they have worse processing, it might be lack of training, youth, tiredness...
Assuming others disagree with you because of stupidity not only avoids all these other options. It also prevents you from solving the pbm because it’s condescending. It assumes you’re right and the other must be corrected. Not great for solving problems.
Here’s a better razor:

Never attribute disagreements to malice, stupidity, or any other specific reason. There are many possible reasons. Sit down, talk, and figure out the root cause.

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More from @tomaspueyo

22 Mar
Bravo @NicoMartinFC pour ce prix qui célèbre votre démarche scientifique!

Cette semaine, c'est l'anniversaire de l'article où vous m'attaquiez. C'est une bonne occasion pour l'analyser en détail, sans revanchisme, pour mieux comprendre les nuances de la démarche scientifique.
🧵
Intro
L'article commence par la conclusion, qu'il communique avec un jugement personnel, soutenu par une rhétorique agressive.

Démarche scientifique: 0
Rhétorique: 3
Fourchette
Mon article original avait été publié le 10 Mars. Vu que les infectés tardent environ 2-4 semaines à mourrir, on peut estimer les infections en France le 10 Mars en fonction des morts 2-4 semaines plus tard (500 - 10.000).

Avec un taux de létalité de ~1%...
Read 24 tweets
16 Mar
Science: Beware, the B117 variant is now predominant in Europe! Let’s vaccinate! Quickly!
EU: Yes, but blood clots.
Sc: Same in the test groups as in controls, right?
EU: Hmm... Just in case
Sc: Hasn’t the UK vaccinated *millions* with that vaccine?
EU: We can’t risk it
👇
Sc: What about the 1000s who will die of COVID?
EU: No worries, we’re going to lock down again
Sc: But that’s going to destroy the economy *again*
EU: Sometimes we need to make sacrifices
Sc: But not clot sacrifices
EU: Duh
Sc: OK so let me get this straight.
You hear some blood clots, which are to be expected just by chance when you’re vaccinating millions, and you decide to stop vaccines, just in case, to prevent them.

Meanwhile you stop vaccinating, which will kill many more, create a new wave of deadlier B117,...
Read 5 tweets
11 Mar
Who should you trust?

The government? An influencer? A think tank? The CDC? Experts? What does “expert” even mean?

First, you should trust yourself. Everybody else might be wrong or have an agenda

But sometimes you might be wrong / be biased/ lack expertise. What then?
We then say “trust experts”. But which one? You can find an “expert” for any opinion.

What is an expert?
Traditionally, it’s a credentialed person or one named to a position of authority. Both of these things are the same.

A credential is just other ppl vouching for you
If you have a PhD, it’s because you passed some tests made by other ppl who also have PhDs, who got theirs through other PhDs. A PhD is trustworthy insofar as the chain of previous PhDs is.

An authority figure is legitimate only insofar as those naming her are legitimate.
Read 9 tweets
24 Feb
The 5th estate (social media and its influencers) is destroying the 4th estate (the press and its reporters).

Exhibit A:
This was impossible even a decade ago. But as leaders build their own channels, they circumvent the traditional gatekeepers and turn them redundant
This echoes how the 4th estate took power away from the 1st estate (church) and gave it to the 2nd (aristocracy)

stratechery.com/2019/the-inter…
@benthompson
Read 4 tweets
20 Feb
We’re entering a world where sanctions to countries might start disappearing.

They never were very successful anyways. Look at Cuba, North Korea, Iran. Did they really change behaviors?

Not much.

Did their elites suffer and feel pressured? Much less than the ppl
Sanctions were always a pretty bad deal.

Now on top of that, they will be unenforceable.

The US based its ability to sanction based on its grip over the global financial system. That is disappearing.

It won’t be able to size the assets of elites, safeguarded in Bitcoin.
It won’t be able to freeze the pipelines of global trade, because DeFi will replace the legacy use of systems like SWIFT. The requirement to buy oil in dollars will likely suffer workarounds, if it doesn’t simply disappear as the % of US’s global GDP shrinks.
Read 5 tweets
19 Feb
The efficacy of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines is probably ~92% , very close to 2 doses (~95%).

Huge ramifications: we should ramp up single dose for these vaccines as quickly as possible. Postpone the 2nd dose.

This doubles the # of ppl protected & ~halves the time to herd immun.
This is what @Bob_Wachter defends in @NEJM
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

Here are the calculations
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
This reversal is truly ground-breaking. We could be getting out of the woods much faster.

It doesn't mean we stop the 2nd dose, but by postponing it we build up production capacity for when it's needed, and protect many more ppl in the meantime
Read 4 tweets

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