Jon Worth Profile picture
26 Mar, 10 tweets, 4 min read
So EMA has today approved the Halix plant 🇳🇱 where AZ 💉 is manufactured

What are the implications of this?

EMA announcement:
ema.europa.eu/en/news/increa…

A 🧵 explaining it

1/10
Background

The Halix plant has been shrouded in mystery - why has EMA not approved it?

FT tried to explain
ft.com/content/8e2e99…

NRC dug deeper still - Google Translate here
translate.google.com/translate?hl=&…

2/10
There is also no confirmation UK's MHRA has approved Halix either, but we know UK received 1 million doses from the plant, sometime before 31 Jan (matches the numbers given by Commission yesterday) - presumably these are stocked unused somewhere

reuters.com/article/us-hea…

3/10 Image
But what about any further Halix production?

Turn the clock back to Monday, and the UK Govt was claiming in a @BrunoBrussels piece for The Times that UK is entitled to at least part of that production

thetimes.co.uk/article/ben-wa…

4/10
Halix has been part of the Oxford consortium from the start, and so UK Government assumes it is entitled to something from there based on its exclusivity deal that Hancock talked about with FT on Wednesday

ft.com/content/69eb41…

5/10
Later on Wednesday AstraZeneca put out a statement about the 29m doses discovered at Anagni 🇮🇹

13m are COVAX, 16m destined for EU, and *nothing* destined for UK

(statement says Europe, but confirmed it is EU by @JamesCrisp6)

astrazeneca.com/media-centre/p…

6/10
We also know that 10m of the 16m Anagni doses are about to be shipped to the EU, taking the Q1 AZ total to the EU to 29m, just shy of the 30m promised

*And* since then we have nothing new from UK Government laying claim to anything that's at Anagni

7/10
All that leads to the *assumption* but not the proof that any doses from Halix are not at Anagni, and that either production from that plant has been lower than expected *or* the doses from it were finished elsewhere, possibly Dessau 🇩🇪

8/10
The essential issue: how many Halix doses there are ready to ship, and where they are, is still unknown

And *were* any of these doses to be sent to 🇬🇧 we'd hear about it through the Commission export transparency system

9/10
One key piece of the jigsaw has fallen into place understanding this today, but the big issue - how many doses are there, where are they, and how many will go to 🇬🇧 (and will those get stopped) remain unanswered

10/10

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More from @jonworth

26 Mar
A little counterfactual

What if AstraZeneca had no exclusive 💉 agreement with UK, and had in Q1 supplied both UK and EU equally as a proportion of population from its UK and EU plants?
(Please don't shout at me "they didn't" (I know), "there was different funding arrangements" (I know), "UK started earlier" (I know) - those points are not central as you will see)
Getting stats on AZ deliveries to both UK and EU is complex. EU we can estimate pretty closely based on yesterday's COMM statement, and the Anagni doses - 29 million in Q1
Read 10 tweets
24 Mar
All right then

Where we are *now* with the AZ 💉 supply saga

Thanks to good work by @jamescrisp6 and an initial discussion about "Europe" as opposed to "EU" in a statement, now clarified, this is what I *think* the situation is
There are 29 million AZ 💉 doses at Anagni 🇮🇹

AZ states 13 million of these are destined for COVAX countries, and 16 million for the EU (10 million this month and 6 million next month)
We don't know what % of the doses contain vaccine from Halix 🇳🇱 and Seneffe 🇧🇪
Read 12 tweets
24 Mar
So now there are 3 different reports that there are 29-30 million AZ 💉 doses at the Catalent plant in Anagni 🇮🇹

Europe1
europe1.fr/international/…

L'Express
lexpansion.lexpress.fr/actualite-econ…

And La Stampa
Note: that this stock is in Italy is *incidental* to the whole story. AZ vaccine manufactured at Seneffe 🇧🇪 and Halix 🇳🇱 is bottled at Anagni
So what's up?

Let's assume the 29-30 million number is right

But that doesn't help much
Read 6 tweets
23 Mar
Trying to piece together what's happening with AstraZeneca, 💉 supply to UK and EU, and... why an export ban might be the only thing the EU has got

A long and complex 🧵 - but necessary as this story is damned complex!

1/16
So @SebTallents gave me the first link, that helped start all of this...

Halix was part of the initial University of Oxford consortium, that has the first (so far unpublished) contract with UK Govt

News here:
b3cnewswire.com/202004152058/h…

List here:
covid19vaccinetrial.web.ox.ac.uk/sponsors-and-p…

2/16
UK's Cobra Biologics is also listed as in the consortium, and like Halix, has been in from early on:
news.yahoo.com/uks-cobra-biol…

As has Oxford Biologica:
business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/…

3/16
Read 16 tweets
23 Mar
OK, this is about the best I have found re. the AZ vaccines supply issue - but it's in Dutch and needs a free registration to read!

Exportverbod vaccins kan België in lastig parket brengen

standaard.be/cnt/dmf2021032…
Quotes are Google Translate from Dutch

Most importantly it claims there are 4 million AZ doses at Halix in Leiden

Is it even worth having a fight this major over that number of doses? Perhaps. But either way this won't solve either UK or EU's supply headaches
"The first target of the possible export ban is AZ's Halix site in Leiden. The EU suspects AZ has hesitated to apply for authorization of the site to the EMA to deliver to the UK first"

Not important. Authorized or not, export stats would still have to be submitted to Commission
Read 8 tweets
17 Mar
OK, now I have found time to look at von der Leyen's actual words earlier... the whole statement is here:
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

Highlighted bit is what got everyone excited
"countries, who have higher vaccination rates" can only really refer to the UK and USA at this stage (Israel does not have its own production just now AFAIK)

"whatever tool we need to deliver on that" has been interpreted as the Commission wanting to use Article 122 TFEU
This is the text of Art 122
Read 7 tweets

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