KANSAS: Republicans hold a 3-1 lead in the delegation, but there's serious talk they could draw a 4-0 gerrymander by converting Rep. Sharice Davids (D)'s #KS03 from a double-digit Biden district (left) to a double-district Trump district (right).
However, Kansas Rs face some obstacles to doing so:

1) They'd have to override Gov. Laura Kelly (D)'s veto. That might not be easy given they can't afford many defections and in 2011, when Rs controlled it all, they couldn't even agree on a map and it went to federal court
2) To make #KS03 bright red, Rs would have to split up Wyandotte & Johnson counties. That could mean putting urban Wyandotte (Kansas City) in the rural "Big First" #KS01, an idea that's met huge resistance from KS civic leaders in the past
3) A 4-0 scheme like the one below might also be opposed by #KS02 Rep. Jake LaTurner (R), who grew up in the state's southeast corner and would want to keep those counties in his district, not #KS03
Bottom line: Gov. Laura Kelly (D)'s reelection prospects are highly uncertain, but her being there now may help save Rep. Sharice Davids (D), whose #KS03 could end up getting a few points *more* Dem (below).

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More from @Redistrict

26 Mar
IOWA: is often held up as the "gold standard" for apolitical redistricting. Every 10 years, it tasks nonpartisan state bureaucrats w/ drafting maps, and counties are kept whole. But, maps are still subject to legislature/governor approval, and this round Rs control both.
Rep. Cindy Axne (D)'s #IA03 is the only D seat left in the state, and it's also IA's fastest-growing. It'll need to shed ~60k people.

In 2020, she won by 1.4% while losing every county except Polk (Des Moines). So, a more Des Moines-centric district would be good news for her.
One possibility: the state panel could propose one compact central Iowa district (Des Moines/Ames) that would have voted for Biden, surrounded by three Trump districts.

But until we have exact census numbers, IA's remap prospects are difficult to game out.
Read 4 tweets
12 Mar
ILLINOIS: has the potential to be Dems' biggest redistricting weapon of the cycle. Once again, it's losing a seat. But Dems could replace the current 13D-5R map (left) with a 14D-3R map (right) - and they might need to to have any chance of holding the House majority.
Illinois Dems are likely to have three main map objectives:

1) Eliminate one of the five downstate GOP seats to account for the state's loss
2) Protect all 13 Dem incumbents, including vulnerable Reps. Lauren Underwood (D) & Cheri Bustos (D)
3) Finally beat Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
The Republican most likely to get eliminated? You guessed it: #IL16 Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R), one of just 10 House Rs to vote for impeachment.

Not only is his district geographically easy to chop up, but many Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway.
Read 7 tweets
11 Mar
THREAD: Dave's Redistricting App (pioneered by Seattle programmer Dave Bradlee) has always been my favorite redistricting app, hands down. And just when I thought it couldn't get better, it has.
For decades, advanced redistricting technology was the domain of political insiders who could afford to pay for prohibitively expensive software. The public couldn't draft maps that met legal standards. But that's rapidly changing.
There are now several commendable free web-based apps available, including DRA, DistrictBuilder and Districtr. All required an absolute ton of work to build, and redistricting nerds are lucky each has helped democratize mapping technology.
Read 7 tweets
5 Mar
GEORGIA: Despite Dems' 2020 triumphs, GA Rs still control state gov't & redistricting may be their last chance to reverse the slide.

The likeliest scenario: merging #GA06 Rep. Lucy McBath (D) & #GA07 Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in northern ATL and drawing a 9R-5D map (right).
In the scenario above, McBath/Bourdeaux would have to face off in a primary for political survival. #GA07 and every other R district in the northern part of the state would have voted for Trump by 20%+ in 2020.

Rs would easily gain one seat towards the House majority. BUT...
There's also an outside chance Rs could attempt an even more aggressive gerrymander, targeting *both* #GA06 and #GA07 for a 10R-4D map.

In the scenario below, 10/14 districts would've voted for Trump by 15%+ points in 2020 - even though GA as a whole went for Biden.
Read 4 tweets
2 Mar
FLORIDA: if you thought things couldn't get worse for Dems...it can. FL could be the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2021.

FL is poised to gain two seats. At a minimum, Rs could easily add two new safe R seats (right) to the current 16R-11D map (left). But...
Because the FL Sup Ct has turned sharply right since 2015, Rs could be even more aggressive - in defiance of FL's Fair Districts amendments.

At the extreme end, Rs could attempt a 21R-8D gerrymander (below), which could cost Dems almost their entire House majority.
In the example above, Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D) #FL07, Charlie Crist (D) #FL13 and Al Lawson (D) #FL05 would all end up in double-digit Trump districts - which might help explain why Murphy & Crist are threatening statewide bids.
Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
CALIFORNIA: may lose a seat for the first time since statehood. At serious risk in that scenario (right): LA County and #CA25 Rep. Mike Garcia (R).

Not at much risk: Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R) #CA23 and Devin Nunes (R) #CA22. Full report @CookPolitical: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
If CA does lose a seat, the commission is likely to axe a seat in slow-growing LA County. But even if it eliminates a Dem-held seat in central LA, that could pull surrounding seats inward, making #CA25 (right) a Biden +20 district - unwinnable for Garcia (R).
One LA district at risk of getting axed: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D)'s #CA44, which was originally drawn as a Black opportunity district and isn't performing. But she's bordered by three Dem incumbents age 79+, and could easily run for one of their seats if one retires.
Read 6 tweets

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