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Dave Wasserman Profile picture
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5 Mar, 4 tweets, 3 min read
GEORGIA: Despite Dems' 2020 triumphs, GA Rs still control state gov't & redistricting may be their last chance to reverse the slide.

The likeliest scenario: merging #GA06 Rep. Lucy McBath (D) & #GA07 Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in northern ATL and drawing a 9R-5D map (right).
In the scenario above, McBath/Bourdeaux would have to face off in a primary for political survival. #GA07 and every other R district in the northern part of the state would have voted for Trump by 20%+ in 2020.

Rs would easily gain one seat towards the House majority. BUT...
There's also an outside chance Rs could attempt an even more aggressive gerrymander, targeting *both* #GA06 and #GA07 for a 10R-4D map.

In the scenario below, 10/14 districts would've voted for Trump by 15%+ points in 2020 - even though GA as a whole went for Biden.
I view this latter option as less likely, though. At the warp speed metro ATL is moving towards Dems, a 10R-4D map could erode quickly & possibly even backfire on Rs.

What's more, it could be vulnerable to a racial gerrymandering lawsuit for overly packing Black voters.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
2 Mar
FLORIDA: if you thought things couldn't get worse for Dems...it can. FL could be the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2021.

FL is poised to gain two seats. At a minimum, Rs could easily add two new safe R seats (right) to the current 16R-11D map (left). But...
Because the FL Sup Ct has turned sharply right since 2015, Rs could be even more aggressive - in defiance of FL's Fair Districts amendments.

At the extreme end, Rs could attempt a 21R-8D gerrymander (below), which could cost Dems almost their entire House majority.
In the example above, Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D) #FL07, Charlie Crist (D) #FL13 and Al Lawson (D) #FL05 would all end up in double-digit Trump districts - which might help explain why Murphy & Crist are threatening statewide bids.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
12 Feb
CALIFORNIA: may lose a seat for the first time since statehood. At serious risk in that scenario (right): LA County and #CA25 Rep. Mike Garcia (R).

Not at much risk: Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R) #CA23 and Devin Nunes (R) #CA22. Full report @CookPolitical: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
If CA does lose a seat, the commission is likely to axe a seat in slow-growing LA County. But even if it eliminates a Dem-held seat in central LA, that could pull surrounding seats inward, making #CA25 (right) a Biden +20 district - unwinnable for Garcia (R).
One LA district at risk of getting axed: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D)'s #CA44, which was originally drawn as a Black opportunity district and isn't performing. But she's bordered by three Dem incumbents age 79+, and could easily run for one of their seats if one retires.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
5 Feb
ARIZONA: is poised to add a seat, its 7th straight decade with a gain. Perhaps fittingly after last decade's chaos, the commission has chosen a psychologist/life coach as its chair. For reference, the current map (5D, 4R) is below...
Even though AZ is gaining a 10th seat, there are a few incumbents at considerable risk of an adverse redraw: #AZ01 Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), as well as Reps. David Schweikert (R) #AZ06 and Debbie Lesko (R) #AZ08. Full analysis at @CookPolitical. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
Republicans will likely push for more *compactness* - including putting Mohave Co. in #AZ01, which could doom O'Halleran (D) as well as creating a new R-heavy #AZ10 anchored by fast-growing Pinal Co., possibly converting 5D-4R to 6R-4D (below).
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
27 Jan
New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle.

They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below).
Upstate: under the scenario (above) I've heard floated...

1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats
One other feature of this play for Upstate: Dems would put Rep. John Katko (R)'s home in Camillus in a Syracuse-less #NY24 (purple), but keep it winnable for themselves in case Katko retires/loses a primary.
Read 8 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
8 Jan
It's worth considering why Dems have succeeded in Georgia but failed in another state with a fairly similar demographic profile that's extremely important for their long-term prospects of winning power: North Carolina.
First of all, Georgia is simply a more "major metro" state. The Atlanta metro area now casts 59% of the state's votes, whereas the Charlotte/Research Triangle areas *combined* cast only 42% of North Carolina's votes.

NC is simply a more small town/rural state.
Second, whereas Dems "bottomed out" w/ rural GA whites a few years ago, they've continued to backslide w/ rural voters in NC - esp. in the Sandhills region - canceling out their suburban gains.

GA doesn't have an equivalent Robeson Co., which voted 58% Obama '12 & 59% Trump '20.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
6 Jan
The bottom line in Ossoff/Perdue: Perdue is outperforming Trump in suburbs w/ lots of country club type Rs (no surprise).

But he's underperforming Trump in heavily Black areas, where there's a slight but significant drop-off in White turnout relative to Black turnout. #GASEN
Overall, it "augurs" (as @Nate_Cohn would say) for an Ossoff advantage at the end of the day. But it's not in territory where it's assured yet, in my view. #GASEN
Here are the big pro-Ossoff margin swings vs. Biden '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only):

1. Clayton +6.1
2. Liberty +5.0
3. Rockdale +4.2
4. Douglas +3.9
5. Baldwin +2.7
6. Paulding +2.1
Read 5 tweets

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