Thread by @Redistrict

ILLINOIS: has the potential to be Dems' biggest redistricting weapon of the cycle. Once again, it's losing a seat. But Dems could replace the current 13D-5R map (left) with a 14D-3R map (right) - and they might need to to have any chance of holding the House majority.

Illinois Dems are likely to have three main map objectives:

1) Eliminate one of the five downstate GOP seats to account for the state's loss
2) Protect all 13 Dem incumbents, including vulnerable Reps. Lauren Underwood (D) & Cheri Bustos (D)
3) Finally beat Rep. Rodney Davis (R)

The Republican most likely to get eliminated? You guessed it: #IL16 Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R), one of just 10 House Rs to vote for impeachment.

Not only is his district geographically easy to chop up, but many Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway.

In the map above (right), 13/17 districts would have voted for Clinton *and* Biden by 10%+, up from 10/18 under the current lines.

Underwood's #IL14 could lose Lake/McHenry counties and pick up DeKalb, Aurora, Elgin or Bolingbrook, moving it from Trump +4 in '16 to Clinton +10.

To marginally shore up Bustos, Dems might get replace rural Trump counties in #IL17's southern end (Fulton, Warren, Henderson and Tazewell) with a lot more of Rockford and its suburbs.

That would move #IL17 from Trump +1 in '16/'20 to Clinton/Biden +1 - not huge, but helpful.

Finally, Dems could draw one heavily D seat in southern IL instead of two weak ones, fixing a strategic error they made in 2011.

They could stuff East St. Louis, Alton and Belleville into Davis (R)'s #IL13, converting it from Trump +4 to Biden +10 - perhaps dooming his career.

For a full rundown of what's at play, be sure to subscribe to @CookPolitical and read our state-by-state preview series. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…