ILLINOIS: has the potential to be Dems' biggest redistricting weapon of the cycle. Once again, it's losing a seat. But Dems could replace the current 13D-5R map (left) with a 14D-3R map (right) - and they might need to to have any chance of holding the House majority.
Illinois Dems are likely to have three main map objectives:

1) Eliminate one of the five downstate GOP seats to account for the state's loss
2) Protect all 13 Dem incumbents, including vulnerable Reps. Lauren Underwood (D) & Cheri Bustos (D)
3) Finally beat Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
The Republican most likely to get eliminated? You guessed it: #IL16 Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R), one of just 10 House Rs to vote for impeachment.

Not only is his district geographically easy to chop up, but many Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway.
In the map above (right), 13/17 districts would have voted for Clinton *and* Biden by 10%+, up from 10/18 under the current lines.

Underwood's #IL14 could lose Lake/McHenry counties and pick up DeKalb, Aurora, Elgin or Bolingbrook, moving it from Trump +4 in '16 to Clinton +10.
To marginally shore up Bustos, Dems might get replace rural Trump counties in #IL17's southern end (Fulton, Warren, Henderson and Tazewell) with a lot more of Rockford and its suburbs.

That would move #IL17 from Trump +1 in '16/'20 to Clinton/Biden +1 - not huge, but helpful.
Finally, Dems could draw one heavily D seat in southern IL instead of two weak ones, fixing a strategic error they made in 2011.

They could stuff East St. Louis, Alton and Belleville into Davis (R)'s #IL13, converting it from Trump +4 to Biden +10 - perhaps dooming his career.
For a full rundown of what's at play, be sure to subscribe to @CookPolitical and read our state-by-state preview series. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

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More from @Redistrict

11 Mar
THREAD: Dave's Redistricting App (pioneered by Seattle programmer Dave Bradlee) has always been my favorite redistricting app, hands down. And just when I thought it couldn't get better, it has.
For decades, advanced redistricting technology was the domain of political insiders who could afford to pay for prohibitively expensive software. The public couldn't draft maps that met legal standards. But that's rapidly changing.
There are now several commendable free web-based apps available, including DRA, DistrictBuilder and Districtr. All required an absolute ton of work to build, and redistricting nerds are lucky each has helped democratize mapping technology.
Read 7 tweets
5 Mar
GEORGIA: Despite Dems' 2020 triumphs, GA Rs still control state gov't & redistricting may be their last chance to reverse the slide.

The likeliest scenario: merging #GA06 Rep. Lucy McBath (D) & #GA07 Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in northern ATL and drawing a 9R-5D map (right).
In the scenario above, McBath/Bourdeaux would have to face off in a primary for political survival. #GA07 and every other R district in the northern part of the state would have voted for Trump by 20%+ in 2020.

Rs would easily gain one seat towards the House majority. BUT...
There's also an outside chance Rs could attempt an even more aggressive gerrymander, targeting *both* #GA06 and #GA07 for a 10R-4D map.

In the scenario below, 10/14 districts would've voted for Trump by 15%+ points in 2020 - even though GA as a whole went for Biden.
Read 4 tweets
2 Mar
FLORIDA: if you thought things couldn't get worse for Dems...it can. FL could be the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2021.

FL is poised to gain two seats. At a minimum, Rs could easily add two new safe R seats (right) to the current 16R-11D map (left). But...
Because the FL Sup Ct has turned sharply right since 2015, Rs could be even more aggressive - in defiance of FL's Fair Districts amendments.

At the extreme end, Rs could attempt a 21R-8D gerrymander (below), which could cost Dems almost their entire House majority.
In the example above, Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D) #FL07, Charlie Crist (D) #FL13 and Al Lawson (D) #FL05 would all end up in double-digit Trump districts - which might help explain why Murphy & Crist are threatening statewide bids.
Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
CALIFORNIA: may lose a seat for the first time since statehood. At serious risk in that scenario (right): LA County and #CA25 Rep. Mike Garcia (R).

Not at much risk: Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R) #CA23 and Devin Nunes (R) #CA22. Full report @CookPolitical: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
If CA does lose a seat, the commission is likely to axe a seat in slow-growing LA County. But even if it eliminates a Dem-held seat in central LA, that could pull surrounding seats inward, making #CA25 (right) a Biden +20 district - unwinnable for Garcia (R).
One LA district at risk of getting axed: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D)'s #CA44, which was originally drawn as a Black opportunity district and isn't performing. But she's bordered by three Dem incumbents age 79+, and could easily run for one of their seats if one retires.
Read 6 tweets
5 Feb
ARIZONA: is poised to add a seat, its 7th straight decade with a gain. Perhaps fittingly after last decade's chaos, the commission has chosen a psychologist/life coach as its chair. For reference, the current map (5D, 4R) is below...
Even though AZ is gaining a 10th seat, there are a few incumbents at considerable risk of an adverse redraw: #AZ01 Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), as well as Reps. David Schweikert (R) #AZ06 and Debbie Lesko (R) #AZ08. Full analysis at @CookPolitical. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
Republicans will likely push for more *compactness* - including putting Mohave Co. in #AZ01, which could doom O'Halleran (D) as well as creating a new R-heavy #AZ10 anchored by fast-growing Pinal Co., possibly converting 5D-4R to 6R-4D (below).
Read 5 tweets
27 Jan
New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle.

They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below).
Upstate: under the scenario (above) I've heard floated...

1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats
One other feature of this play for Upstate: Dems would put Rep. John Katko (R)'s home in Camillus in a Syracuse-less #NY24 (purple), but keep it winnable for themselves in case Katko retires/loses a primary.
Read 8 tweets

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