1/ What military options are available if you’ve got a nasty insurgency attacking parts of your country & citizens? If you're, say, #Mozambique🇲🇿, it turns out the menu of potential options is quite large. Of course, they might not work but here’s the menu as I see it...
2/ In no particular order. Option 1: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could handle its insurgency alone with its own national security forces.
3/ Option 2: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could supplement its national security forces with bilateral security force assistance #SFA programs from other states e.g. 🇺🇸🇫🇷🇵🇹 etc. Training, equipping, advising, maybe field mentoring etc.
4/ Option 3: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could supplement its national security forces with private military contractors e.g. Dyck Advisory Group or some 🇺🇦 muscle. Maybe get some financial help from big transnational firms with an interest in ending the insurgency?🤷
5/ Option 4: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could ask its neighbors & friends to assemble an ad hoc coalition of the willing to help with collective self-defense operations. No need for a 🇺🇳Security Council resolution; think G5 Sahel Joint Force or #MNJTF as the model.
6/ Option 5: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could turn to the 16 members of #SADC, which could authorize a military response to the insurgency through its Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Affairs. Again no 🇺🇳 Security Council resolution needed but 💰 is a problem. sadc.int/sadc-secretari…
7/ Option 6: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could turn to the @_AfricanUnion Peace & Security Council, which could authorize a military peace support operation, comprised of a regional or continental element of the African Standby Force #ASF or a coalition of willing states. No 🇺🇳 SCR required.
8/ Although Option 6 is more likely than Option 5 and likely to be a more robust force, 💰 is still a problem because the @_AfricanUnion cannot finance its own large PSOs, despite having a new Peace Fund
https://twitter.com/PDWilliamsGWU/status/1370344839548710916?s=20
9/ Option 7: #Mozambique🇲🇿 could go global: if the🇺🇳 Security Council identified a threat to international peace & security it could authorize a multinational force to respond. Command & control arrangements would be delegated depending on the composition of the🇺🇳-authorized MNF.
10/ Note that Option 7 is not a Blue Helmet @UNPeacekeeping🇺🇳 mission. It's a 🇺🇳-authorized MNF so 💰 would come from the contributing countries not the 🇺🇳's assessed #peacekeeping contributions. But the MNF could draw TCCs from all UN member states.
11/ Option 8: If #Mozambique🇲🇿 negotiates a peace deal with its insurgents then either a coalition of willing states or an international organization (e.g. AU🟩, UN🟦) could deploy a #PeaceOperation to help implement that agreement.
12/ I should've added for Option 2: bilateral #SFA could potentially include partner states fighting themselves, either via airstrikes or ground operations. Think e.g. like 🇫🇷in🇲🇱 or 🇺🇸in🇸🇴.
Right, what have I missed? 😅
Right, what have I missed? 😅
13/ A reminder that @issafrica were calling for 🇲🇿Options 5 or 6 #SADC @_AfricanUnion since Aug. 2020
https://twitter.com/PDWilliamsGWU/status/1293884811476598789?s=20
14/ Interesting to see Option 2 being expanded as #Portugal🇵🇹 offers #Mozambique🇲🇿 security force assistance
https://twitter.com/bkesling/status/1377055932803256322
15/ On 8 April #SADC authorized a "technical deployment" to report back on the situation later in the month. Is SADC mulling Option 5? Here’s their communique sadc.int/news-events/ne…
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