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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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26 Mar, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Bad news:

Signs of a "third wave" in some Middle East and Asian countries.

graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavi…
How far is safe?

Preferred personal distances and COVID-19 social distancing is different in countries.

MIT researchers found airborne particles can travel as much as 8 meters.

China researchers found 4 meters.

graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAV…
Germany adds new travel restrictions on France as “the pandemic in Germany is exploding faster than they thought";

Travel restrictions are also being applied to some areas within France. The greater Paris region is one of the worst affected areas
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Today Kenya declared a new lockdown in five counties and travel restrictions.

The total number of cases does not exceed 700 or so in any county. A strong llockdown for a few weeks can be enough for elimination and a green zone exit plan.

msn.com/en-us/news/wor…

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Mar
Taiwan, with quarantines for all arrivals, is launching a first quarantine-free "travel bubble" April 1, with the nation of Palau. Travelers will be able to visit both countries for up to eight days.

1/
 taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4153190
Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. will fly to Taiwan tomorrow, March 28, to kick off the program.

Taiwan has been in conversations on similar "bubbles" with other countries, including Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam, since late last year.

2/
travelandleisure.com/travel-news/ta…
On March 18, Taiwan announced that Singapore could be the next country it pursues such a bubble with.

3/
taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4147742

mothership.sg/2021/03/singap…
Read 15 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Mar
We Could Have Been Largely Free of the Pandemic by Now

We've blown it again.

via @TheTyee

thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"Seven weeks ago, channelling a number of renowned experts, I warned many parts of Canada would experience a third wave if leaders didn’t get off their collective asses and change their failing strategy of yo-yo closures and openings with no regard for exponential growth.

2/
"Instead I recommended a no-nonsense elimination strategy — the Canadian Shield — with clear targets for reducing transmission devised by a collection of Canadian experts with the goal of banishing this multi-organ disease from our borders.

3/
Read 27 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
25 Mar
Belgium Pro-Acts!

“We have decided on a short term pain...if we didn’t the consequences would be more serious”

A sharp new lockdown to fight the third wave: Belgium will close schools and non-food stores.

It would be best to limit travel as well!

usnews.com/news/world/art…

1/
US Mobility map from Feb. 28-Mar. 6

Note the high connectivity to Florida from the midwest, Michigan in particular.

2/
When we map community clusters: Florida is the same mega cluster as the Midwest.

Areas of the mega cluster are shown in grey shades.

The second figure shows the mobility of each county.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
24 Mar
Good news:

The Navajo Nation reported 0 new cases on Monday, for the first time in 6 months!

Congratulations!

1/
azcentral.com/story/news/loc…
Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez thanked the Navajo people, health care workers, frontline workers and others “Once again, the Navajo Nation is exemplifying what can be accomplished when we listen to the public health experts and work together."

2/ Image
In Germany, as a new increase in cases accelerates one month after a minimum that was not very low, Chancellor Merkel points to presence of the UK variant as a new pandemic, more lethal, with more and longer transmission.



3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
21 Mar
In the past month, US effective reproduction number (Rt) has risen from 0.78 (historical low), back up above R=1.

Why is Rt rising? We keep relaxing restrictions, and new variants are accelerating transmission even as vaccinations are happening

1/
This shows up in case counts, where the recent decline in cases has reversed and cases are now growing. With reopening across the country, as well as new variants, growth will accelerate into a “4th wave”

2/
Vaccinations shouldn't be expected to be a get-out-of-jail-free card in ending the pandemic. New variants not only accelerate transmission, they can undermine immunity of prior infection and vaccination. The best strategy is to aim for elimination using vaccination to help.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
20 Mar
CDC continues to claim they need proof that the ice is thin.

i.e. proof of unsafe, instead of proof of safe.

..and there is enough proof.

More kids in class increases transmission.

Source: CDC

So: Reducing 6ft to 3ft increases transmission

1/
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
"Incidence increased with the proportion of students receiving in-person instruction."
What did CDC say today?

Instead of 6ft they say:

"CDC now recommends that, with universal masking, students should maintain a distance of at least 3 feet in classroom settings."

The push to open schools with community transmission is unsafe for students, teachers and families
Read 4 tweets

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