Good news:

The Navajo Nation reported 0 new cases on Monday, for the first time in 6 months!

Congratulations!

1/

azcentral.com/story/news/loc…
Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez thanked the Navajo people, health care workers, frontline workers and others “Once again, the Navajo Nation is exemplifying what can be accomplished when we listen to the public health experts and work together."

2/ Image
In Germany, as a new increase in cases accelerates one month after a minimum that was not very low, Chancellor Merkel points to presence of the UK variant as a new pandemic, more lethal, with more and longer transmission.



3/ Image
Germany extended current restrictions through April 18, and adds 5 days of shutdown for Easter. Easter restrictions will be stricter than before. Almost all shops, including grocery stores, have to close.

Strong actions have significant effects.

4/

dw.com/en/germany-imp…
Brazil is also in a new pandemic with the even more deadly, and more rapidly spreading P.1 variant, which continues to set records for daily new deaths. Nearly every Brazilian state has ICU occupancy at or above 80%.

5/ Image
Vaccination is not playing a major role with less than 4.5% of the population having one or two shots, and there is evidence of immune evasion for reinfection so there is concern about the vaccine as well.

6/
Local leaders want to impose restrictions, but federal authorities insist on keeping businesses open.

cnn.com/2021/03/20/ame…

7/
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro continues spreading disinformation, claiming the real threat is from economic harm that restrictions would impose.

This has repeatedly been demonstrated not to be the case.

8/
One more from the article on the Navajo Nation:

"Navajo Nation will continue to administer vaccines in drive-thru events or by appointment."

I can't find a drive thru in Massachusetts.

9/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

25 Mar
Belgium Pro-Acts!

“We have decided on a short term pain...if we didn’t the consequences would be more serious”

A sharp new lockdown to fight the third wave: Belgium will close schools and non-food stores.

It would be best to limit travel as well!

usnews.com/news/world/art…

1/ ImageImageImage
US Mobility map from Feb. 28-Mar. 6

Note the high connectivity to Florida from the midwest, Michigan in particular.

2/ ImageImage
When we map community clusters: Florida is the same mega cluster as the Midwest.

Areas of the mega cluster are shown in grey shades.

The second figure shows the mobility of each county.

3/ ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
21 Mar
In the past month, US effective reproduction number (Rt) has risen from 0.78 (historical low), back up above R=1.

Why is Rt rising? We keep relaxing restrictions, and new variants are accelerating transmission even as vaccinations are happening

1/
This shows up in case counts, where the recent decline in cases has reversed and cases are now growing. With reopening across the country, as well as new variants, growth will accelerate into a “4th wave”

2/
Vaccinations shouldn't be expected to be a get-out-of-jail-free card in ending the pandemic. New variants not only accelerate transmission, they can undermine immunity of prior infection and vaccination. The best strategy is to aim for elimination using vaccination to help.

3/
Read 8 tweets
20 Mar
CDC continues to claim they need proof that the ice is thin.

i.e. proof of unsafe, instead of proof of safe.

..and there is enough proof.

More kids in class increases transmission.

Source: CDC

So: Reducing 6ft to 3ft increases transmission

1/

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
"Incidence increased with the proportion of students receiving in-person instruction."
What did CDC say today?

Instead of 6ft they say:

"CDC now recommends that, with universal masking, students should maintain a distance of at least 3 feet in classroom settings."

The push to open schools with community transmission is unsafe for students, teachers and families
Read 4 tweets
18 Mar
Another round of lessons on part-way measures not working is happening around the world.

There is no compromise solution.

#zerocovd #nocovid is the exit strategy that works.

1/
Japan's CDP (Constitutional democratic party) is proposing a #ZeroCovid strategy in contrast to the "with covid" government strategy.

cdp-japan.jp/covid-19/zero-…
Aiming for "Zero Corona" is the strongest economic measure -- Ask Toshio Nakagawa, Chairman of the Japan Medical Association

3/

m3.com/open/iryoIshin… Image
Read 8 tweets
17 Mar
Three main identified “variants of concern” with more rapid transmission, higher severity, and vaccine evasion have spread globally in recent months because travel restrictions were not sufficiently strong. Each can be considered like a new pandemic.

public.tableau.com/profile/brooks…

1/
A new P.3 variant first found in Philippines has E484K spike protein mutation found in Brazilian P1 variant, associated to stronger receptor binding and lower vaccine efficacy, and the N501Y mutation found in the UK B117 variant also considered to increase transmissibility.

2/
And....🥁...😬

Two cases of the Philippines P.3 variant have been detected in the UK.

Without travel restrictions the worst variants are everywhere. [When will they learn?]

[note: There are no Australian variants, none]

3/

twitter.com/i/events/13719…
Read 6 tweets
16 Mar
India reported the year’s biggest daily increase in cases on Sunday, with 25,320 new cases. Maharashtra, the epicenter of the renewed surge is imposing new restrictions but not a new lockdown. Halfway measures are not sufficient for this pandemic.

1/

reuters.com/article/idUSKB…
In the US progress has been made and the best opportunity to exit the outbreak is now.

North Dakota, Wyoming, and Hawaii are below 100 new cases per day.

2/
Alaska, District of Columbia, Main, Montana, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Vermont are between 100-200 daily cases.

There is an opportunity to open up normally zones with zero new cases as long as they have restrictions for non essential travel

3/
Read 4 tweets

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