We Could Have Been Largely Free of the Pandemic by Now
We've blown it again.
via @TheTyee
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
We've blown it again.
via @TheTyee
thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/…
"Seven weeks ago, channelling a number of renowned experts, I warned many parts of Canada would experience a third wave if leaders didn’t get off their collective asses and change their failing strategy of yo-yo closures and openings with no regard for exponential growth.
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"Instead I recommended a no-nonsense elimination strategy — the Canadian Shield — with clear targets for reducing transmission devised by a collection of Canadian experts with the goal of banishing this multi-organ disease from our borders.
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"I warned that the variants from U.K., Brazil and South Africa represented another pandemic altogether.
"I explained these deadlier and highly contagious variants are harder and costlier to fight, and could undermine the vaccination program and plunge us into a third wave.
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"I explained these deadlier and highly contagious variants are harder and costlier to fight, and could undermine the vaccination program and plunge us into a third wave.
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"The uncertainty they represented added to the urgency of “going for zero” — a slogan that encompasses sharper restrictions on travel, imposing strict lockdowns, marking green zones rendered free of the virus and protecting them, relentlessly testing and tracing..
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"— and in the process systematically driving transmission to zero.
"I also argued that bare-minimum muddling through by “living with” COVID-19 was a disastrous idea because this pandemic is not just about the dead but about the living.
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"I also argued that bare-minimum muddling through by “living with” COVID-19 was a disastrous idea because this pandemic is not just about the dead but about the living.
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"I wrote that the experience of countries like New Zealand and Australia proved that eliminating the virus in our communities could be achieved in six weeks using going-for-zero tactics, but it would require committed leadership.
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"I wrote that on Jan. 28.
"If our leaders had acted, Canada could now be COVID-free. Just like the Australians or Taiwanese, we could now be going to concerts and visiting relatives without fear. Our schools and our elders would be safe. Small businesses would be thriving.
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"If our leaders had acted, Canada could now be COVID-free. Just like the Australians or Taiwanese, we could now be going to concerts and visiting relatives without fear. Our schools and our elders would be safe. Small businesses would be thriving.
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"Instead we find ourselves in a third wave fretting about the slowness of the vaccine rollout (expect more delays) while the variants are filling hospitals in Ontario, Saskatchewan, B.C. and Alberta.
"The wages of dithering
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"The wages of dithering
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"The people now occupying intensive care units are not old. They are largely under 65 years of age with severe COVID-19 disease. And that could have been prevented with some tough decisions. Ontario internist Irfan Dhalla, who called for an elimination strategy last summer..
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"notes that seven of Canada’s provinces and territories (the North and Atlantic Canada) have ended community spread because they went for zero. “But six have not aimed to stop all community transmission and all are suffering.”
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"Here’s what cultivated complacency in much of Canada has achieved in the under two months since I wrote my warning:
"Two weeks ago, Regina had 36 cases due to variants of concern. Now it has more than a thousand. The variants now represent 90% of all infections..
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"Two weeks ago, Regina had 36 cases due to variants of concern. Now it has more than a thousand. The variants now represent 90% of all infections..
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"and that city will be under a lockdown starting Sunday. And savour this fact: Saskatchewan, which boasted the least stringent measures for COVID-19 control, now has the highest rate of infection per 100,000 residents in the country. Congratulations, Mr. Moe.
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"British Columbia, one of the last provinces to adopt a mask mandate, is not far behind Saskatchewan. In the absence of bold action, its caseload will likely lead the nation next week on a per capita basis. Imagine, it is even reporting more cases than Washington State.
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"“The variants are like a thoroughbred and our vaccines are like a workhorse,” noted evolutionary biologist Sally Otto. But spotty data, insufficient testing and an incoherent strategy underestimated risks as cases explode in the Lower Mainland. Congratulations, Mr. Horgan.
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"Alberta, which reluctantly imposed restrictions only after lackadaisically letting COVID-19 overrun its hospitals last November — a political act that killed hundreds of Albertans — now boasts the highest number of cumulative variant cases in the nation.
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"Alberta thought it could avoid a third wave with half measures, and failed again. Congratulations, Mr. Kenney
"Ontario opened up indoor dining to 50% capacity “to support the province’s economic recovery” as variants now fill hospitals and increase caseloads
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"Ontario opened up indoor dining to 50% capacity “to support the province’s economic recovery” as variants now fill hospitals and increase caseloads
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"Meanwhile provincial officials set up a vaccine centre that was so crowded it looked “like a mosh pit” reported public health expert Amir Attaran. “The incompetence of public health leaders is on full display.” Congratulations, Mr. Ford.
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"Quebec, which questioned the validity of airborne transmission and other key variables for far too long, continues on its largely reactive course. One group of disgusted physicians pointedly noted this shameful truth: “New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea,..
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"..Iceland, Thailand, Norway, Finland, with a combined population of 283 million, have had 4,116 COVID deaths. If Quebec had had a similar mortality rate, there would have been only 125 deaths in a year.”
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"Instead Quebec has recorded more than 10,000 deaths. The doctors identified the problem: “So far, the authorities have aimed to slow down the epidemic rather than to prevent it, to reduce the surges instead of suppressing all outbreaks.” Congratulations, Mr. Legault.
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"The variants and the vaccine
"Here’s the message that Canadian leaders have ignored at our collective peril: “Vaccinations shouldn’t be expected to be a get-out-of-jail-free card in ending the pandemic.” So explained pandemic and complexity expert Yaneer Bar-Yam.
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"Here’s the message that Canadian leaders have ignored at our collective peril: “Vaccinations shouldn’t be expected to be a get-out-of-jail-free card in ending the pandemic.” So explained pandemic and complexity expert Yaneer Bar-Yam.
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"“New variants not only accelerate transmission, they can undermine immunity of prior infection and vaccination. The best strategy is to aim for elimination using vaccination to help.”
"Elimination matters for several important reasons.
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"Elimination matters for several important reasons.
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"Every day the health and economic costs are increasing due to more infections, ongoing disease, death and disability and social restrictions. The variants keep adding to those costs by increasing transmission, severity and lethality of COVID-19.
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"More variants equals more mutations, which equals more risk for all of us, and they are outracing vaccines.
"“This means that the disease in its increasingly worse state will continue to be around for years to come,” said Bar-Yam.
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"“This means that the disease in its increasingly worse state will continue to be around for years to come,” said Bar-Yam.
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"“Those who are at zero can ignore all that and keep going with a different pre-pandemic lifestyle.”
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