Recent US pledge of 2.5 M vaccine doses to Mexico is notable:

-It's the largest single bilateral pledge of doses so far in this crisis

- It's going to a nation in great need

- It came from a democracy

Here's me in @TheAtlantic on why that matters 1/
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
So far, 14 countries have donated a total of 22.5 million doses to 97 nations

Most donations outside of Asia-Pacific have been too small (150k doses or less) to meet local or global demands

2/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/politi…
Vaccine donations are distributing fewer doses than COVAX (22.5 million v. 32 million) but they are going to more countries (97 v. 60).

Yet, many of those donations are not going to the poorer nations most in need of doses 3/

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/politi…
US & other wealthy democracies have generally opted to give cash, not doses to other nations in this crisis

They've also promised to donate doses once done vaccinating @ home

Yet future doses from COVAX & western donors are cold comfort to nations desperate for vaccines now 4/
US provision of vaccine doses to Mexico is a cautious step toward greater global equity

Making it a loan, that may not need repaying, is politically viable way for a democracy to help at a time when voters may not otherwise support doses going abroad 5/
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Now the US and its allies need to build on that example and go further

COVAX needs help now -- more than cash

Here's @ChadBown & me on how an initiative - a global operation Warp Speed of sorts - can scale up vaccine manufacturing & supplies quickly 6/
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
The US & allies can still provide a compelling counternarrative to the token vaccine donations promoting national interests w/out doing nearly enough to bring this pandemic under control

But it can't wait for US to finish vaccinating its citizens first
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
To read more about the data and analysis in this @TheAtlantic piece, please see this fascinating Politics of Vaccine Tracker via @samckiernan @serena_tohme,
@kailey_shanks, Basia Rosenbaum

via @ThinkGlobalHlth and so very worth your time 8/8

thinkglobalhealth.org/article/politi…

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More from @TomBollyky

20 Jan
President-elect Biden has set a goal of vaccinating 100 million Americans (30% of the population) in 100 days.

It is an ambitious, achievable goal.

Here is what that will require, via @JenniferNuzzo, Sid Baccam @IEMNews, and me in the @nytimes 1/
nytimes.com/2021/01/20/opi…
Primary constraint on vaccinating more Americans so far has not been supply

Despite production shortfalls, US still distributed close to enough doses to vaccinate average of 1M people daily

Bigger hurdles have been administration & demand 2/
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Reaching 1 million people per day requires expanding beyond vaccinating small number of individuals on scheduled-basis to doing more mass vaccination

After 9/11, federal gov't thought through how to vaccinate many Americans in a short time 3/
liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.108…
Read 10 tweets
30 Dec 20
Good news! Vaccine is relatively cheap, easy to produce & store, well tolerated. 3B doses projected in 2021

Haven't seen submission or decision, but MHRA reportedly approved 2 dose regimen (62% effective) & is encouraging a 1-dose regimen to speed access
Results published in Lancet indicate say this a/b 1 dose regimen

It will be interesting to see public response and distribution strategy for regimen w/lower efficacy than Pfizer/Moderna options & uncertainty about duration of protection
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Apparently, Oxford/AstraZeneca has not even filed a submission package with EMA yet. FDA decision isn't coming soon either.

This is such an important vaccine for global access and so much is strange about how its sponsors have pursued it
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Read 4 tweets
29 Dec 20
Revolutions often go full circle, recreating circumstances that led to initial upheaval

For 2d time in 20 yrs world faces a treatment access crisis

1st crisis transformed #globalhealth but laid seeds for latest crisis over vaccines

My latest w/@ChadBown
foreignaffairs.com/articles/world…
20 yrs ago, crisis over AIDS drugs brought deep & lasting changes, pumping $$ into R&D of new meds & creating new institutions to deliver them

But it also shifted focus of #globalhealth 2/

foreignaffairs.com/articles/world…
Global health became less a/b cooperation among nations on common threats and more a/b aid-driven initiatives and public-private partnerships to solve the problems of *other* people—mostly in low-income countries 3/
Read 7 tweets
14 Nov 20
Interim results on Pfizer vaccine are promising

But getting safe doses to those who would benefit most depends on reversing a trend that has defined this pandemic:

to quote Isaac Asimov, “science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom” 1/
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
US #COVID19 hospitalizations & deaths are surging, and projections are ~200,000 more Americans will lose their lives to the virus before March

A safe vaccine could help shift that trajectory but only if we learn from past US failures distributing vaccines to adults 2/
According to recent analysis, 75% Americans would need to receive a vaccine that prevents at least 80% of infections for that vaccine to end #COVID19 pandemic on its own

(h/t @PeterHotez) 3/
ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-…
Read 16 tweets
23 Oct 20
Countries without government trust have performed badly in #COVID19, even when you account for differences in population age and size, and the timing of the pandemic

New analysis in @ForeignAffairs via @samckiernan, Sawyer Crosby @IHME_UW, and me 1/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
“Government exists to protect us from each other,” Reagan once said, but goes “beyond its limits . . . in deciding to protect us from ourselves”

When applied to pandemics, Reagan was wrong & so are policymakers, in esp. in US, who have adopted this view
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Confronted w/novel contagious virus, for which there's no effective treatment & no preexisting immunity, the only way to protect citizens from one another is by convincing them to protect themselves

Esp. in free societies that depends on trust between government and its people
Read 15 tweets
23 Oct 20
The most important lessons from #COVID19 are less about virus itself but what it has revealed about the political systems that have responded to it

@IlonaKickbusch & I were thrilled to guest edit a @bmj_latest series on preparing democracies for pandemics
bmj.com/democracy-and-…
The @bmj_latest series examines the mechanisms that might explain underperformance of democracies in #COVID19 crisis and proposes ideas to better “pandemic proof” this political system

The articles in series includes: 2/8
bmj.com/democracy-and-…
A commentary from @IlonaKickbusch & me on preparing democracies for pandemics 3/8:

bmj.com/content/371/bm…
Read 6 tweets

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