Thread by @Robert_E_Kelly

Consider the extremely low probability of Graham’s scenario:

- a natural disaster so massive that

- the police/National Guard/military are so overwhelmed that

- gangs have take over the streets like Death Wish 3

Versus the far greater likelihood of an armed lunatic in a store

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1376173348842000385

I’m not saying it’s impossible. But it’s fairly outlandish: Would not a disaster so massive that it wiped out the cops, Guard, and military also send gangsters fleeing? When Katrina hit and the police disintegrated, didn’t the bad guys run also?

The American state is far

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more capable than these apocalypse scenarios - to justify long gun ownership - admit. The US is NOT on the brink of anarchy, about to be invaded, about to collapse under the national debt, and so on. The American state has multiple levels and multiple agencies which use force.

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For them ALL to collapse so badly that you’re on your doorstep fighting off Mad Max with your AR-15 would require something like a nuclear strike to bring about. This is the scenario of the movie ‘Amerigeddon,’ not, um, anything remote plausible.

The smart play for personal

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gun ownership has always been to emphasize pistols for temporary home/personal defense until the cops show up. I’d bet a lot of Americans would support that to the frustration of the restrictionist left

But the Hollywood scenarios dreamed up to justify long gun ownership show

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just how dissociated those weapons are f/ the reality of personal defense in an otherwise ordered society. As @steven_metz suggests,they prolly function more as red state cultural markers. But there’s a cost: regular gun massacres. & long guns are not remotely worth that price

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