Jon Worth Profile picture
29 Mar, 7 tweets, 4 min read
* Very tentative conclusions on Janssen / Johnson & Johnson vaccine supply *

It looks like EU legitimately feared a UK/AstraZeneca situation with USA for J&J - that vaccine produce in NL and finished in USA would be prevented from leaving back to EU
But two things have happened

First, J&J supply issues in the USA have not been fully solved, especially finishing
npr.org/sections/healt…
(thanks @el_snoop)
Second, EU countries together with Janssen and J&J, have found ways to do finishing (and even step up production) in the EU

At Reig Jofre 🇪🇸
reuters.com/article/idUSKB…

And IDT Biologika 🇩🇪 (temporarily)
idt-biologika.com/idt-biologika-…
Breton even went to visit Reig Jofre last week:


Thanks @TWPieterse @arekmakarenko @cymro69 @s_cortenraad @inwiii for help understanding these parts of the story
Yes, the EU is going to get a bit of a delay with its J&J shipments, but given the situation in the supply chain this is probably to be expected
politico.eu/article/despit…
So - very tentatively - it looks like EU-USA-J&J is not going to go the way of EU-UK-AZ

There probably a bit of luck, a bit of learning, and a bit of J&J being better in their comms than AZ in this

But having researched this, I am more reassured than I was

/ends
P.S: Via @AuerSusan, it seems J&J itself realised the problem and sought alternative locations for finishing merkur.de/welt/corona-im…

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More from @jonworth

30 Mar
This New York Times political GeoGuessr is *fascinating*

I am just missing those micro-signals that I would *know* in UK or DE, but don't know for the USA...

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Take this for example

Is there some micro-signal in that building I am missing that screams Biden? ImageImage
Or a suburb like this?

It has sidewalks, so I'd lean Biden, but it was Trump

What about two-storey houses in suburbs like this? Does that make any difference? Image
Read 6 tweets
29 Mar
OK, so next in the series of Jon looking at supply of each different COVID vaccine it's:

Novavax
This one is different to AZ, BioNTech, J&J etc., in that the EU has no APA with Novavax *yet*

Even that is somewhat confusing - Reuters reports that this is because Novavax is dragging its heels, citing production problems
reuters.com/article/health…
The UK meanwhile has a contract for 60 million doses
thesun.co.uk/news/14314756/…

As does the USA
cnbc.com/2020/07/07/us-…
Read 9 tweets
29 Mar
Deep breath

It has been *repeatedly alleged* that J&J/Janssen vaccine being manufactured in Europe (Janssen plant in 🇳🇱) and finished in USA *could* be a problem for EU supply of that vaccine

But do we have *evidence* this is the case?

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Please do not reply to me about the rights or wrongs of this. Before we can answer the rights and wrongs, we need to know what is happening
We know USA has started using J&J/Janssen already - 2.8m doses as stated here:
fiercepharma.com/pharma/covid-1…

11m due this week:
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Read 7 tweets
28 Mar
Number 10 to @ShippersUnbound & @cazjwheeler: will you write us a story for Sunday Times on how we’ll donate extra 💉 to 🇮🇪?

Times: sure! But how many will you donate...?

(Noise of keys tapping on the line)

Number 10: 3.7 million! ImageImage
Ok, do I know this happened? No. But that looks like a pretty big coincidence to me.

Not least because @nealerichmond @oconnellhugh also confirmed no offer had been made.
I’ve tried to work out if there was any other rationale for choosing that number. And I can’t find one. I’m happy to hear if there is one, and I’ll delete this thread if so.
Read 5 tweets
26 Mar
So EMA has today approved the Halix plant 🇳🇱 where AZ 💉 is manufactured

What are the implications of this?

EMA announcement:
ema.europa.eu/en/news/increa…

A 🧵 explaining it

1/10
Background

The Halix plant has been shrouded in mystery - why has EMA not approved it?

FT tried to explain
ft.com/content/8e2e99…

NRC dug deeper still - Google Translate here
translate.google.com/translate?hl=&…

2/10
There is also no confirmation UK's MHRA has approved Halix either, but we know UK received 1 million doses from the plant, sometime before 31 Jan (matches the numbers given by Commission yesterday) - presumably these are stocked unused somewhere

reuters.com/article/us-hea…

3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
26 Mar
A little counterfactual

What if AstraZeneca had no exclusive 💉 agreement with UK, and had in Q1 supplied both UK and EU equally as a proportion of population from its UK and EU plants?
(Please don't shout at me "they didn't" (I know), "there was different funding arrangements" (I know), "UK started earlier" (I know) - those points are not central as you will see)
Getting stats on AZ deliveries to both UK and EU is complex. EU we can estimate pretty closely based on yesterday's COMM statement, and the Anagni doses - 29 million in Q1
Read 10 tweets

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