* Very tentative conclusions on Janssen / Johnson & Johnson vaccine supply *
It looks like EU legitimately feared a UK/AstraZeneca situation with USA for J&J - that vaccine produce in NL and finished in USA would be prevented from leaving back to EU
Yes, the EU is going to get a bit of a delay with its J&J shipments, but given the situation in the supply chain this is probably to be expected politico.eu/article/despit…
So - very tentatively - it looks like EU-USA-J&J is not going to go the way of EU-UK-AZ
There probably a bit of luck, a bit of learning, and a bit of J&J being better in their comms than AZ in this
But having researched this, I am more reassured than I was
OK, so next in the series of Jon looking at supply of each different COVID vaccine it's:
Novavax
This one is different to AZ, BioNTech, J&J etc., in that the EU has no APA with Novavax *yet*
Even that is somewhat confusing - Reuters reports that this is because Novavax is dragging its heels, citing production problems reuters.com/article/health…
It has been *repeatedly alleged* that J&J/Janssen vaccine being manufactured in Europe (Janssen plant in 🇳🇱) and finished in USA *could* be a problem for EU supply of that vaccine
I’ve tried to work out if there was any other rationale for choosing that number. And I can’t find one. I’m happy to hear if there is one, and I’ll delete this thread if so.
There is also no confirmation UK's MHRA has approved Halix either, but we know UK received 1 million doses from the plant, sometime before 31 Jan (matches the numbers given by Commission yesterday) - presumably these are stocked unused somewhere
What if AstraZeneca had no exclusive 💉 agreement with UK, and had in Q1 supplied both UK and EU equally as a proportion of population from its UK and EU plants?
(Please don't shout at me "they didn't" (I know), "there was different funding arrangements" (I know), "UK started earlier" (I know) - those points are not central as you will see)
Getting stats on AZ deliveries to both UK and EU is complex. EU we can estimate pretty closely based on yesterday's COMM statement, and the Anagni doses - 29 million in Q1