Thread by @SlavaMalamud

Let's talk about the new law in Georgia. It's pretty obvious that voting rights is where the new battle line for the future of this country will be drawn. Nobody is hiding this anymore. Republicans are very open and honest with this. This is their plan to stay in power...

https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1375872749692928006

Naturally, this makes #HR1 the most important piece of legislation in recent memory. And it's not a mystery what's going to happen next. Democrats will change filibuster rules, then wait a couple of weeks to let Republicans read Dr Seuss and some Dearborn Independent articles...

... on the Senate floor, then pass the law with Kamala Harris breaking the tie. And then, within about 12 or 13 seconds of Biden's signing it, every single state with the Republican AG will sue, and the case will be decided by the Supreme Court...

SCOTUS will carefully consider the Constitution, of course. In case you are curious, which part of it, look up Article I, Sec. 4. You may parse this six ways to Sunday, including the random capitalization and the spelling of "chusing", but ultimately, none of it matters...

The Justices know quite well that this is not about what the actual archaic text says. It's about whether or not the GOP will be allowed to cheat its way to power anymore. And 6 of the 9 Justices would very much like for the GOP to stay in power. So, the verdict is obvious...

They will almost certainly strike down or gut the law. Or, they will stay a lower-court decision to make sure the Georgia and similar laws are in effect in 2022, allowing the GOP to capture both houses of Congress and render all voting rights laws moot.
This WILL happen...

This will happen, it's not a question of if, it's not a question of how, it's solely a question of "what then?"
This is why the only meaningful question anyone should be asking Joe Manchin et al is not "will you reform the filibuster?", it's "will you pack the Court?"

Packing the Court and adding DC and Puerto Rico as states are now existential issues to the preservation of democracy. Knowing where each Senator stands on them is as important as it was to know who stands where on the Kansas-Nebraska Act in 1854.

The GOP accuse Democrats of dirty tricks. Yet this is the only thing that can be done to ensure majoritarian rule in America. The GOP is an anti-democratic party with no discernible ideology beyond staying in power. They are America’s version of United Russia…

They want to keep ruling through making voting as irrelevant as possible and staying plausible as an actual political party by pushing hot-button culture-war issues on low-information voters. This is what United Russia does: convinces Russians that voting is about gays and stuff

So, that’s where we are, in a nutshell. Voting is either a right or a form of patronage to be distributed to favored demographics. Our government either represents the will of the people or is taken over by an elite who only needs to cater to the extremist wing of its own faction

Nothing else matters. Infrastructure, COVID relief, police reform - all important, but nowhere near as important, long term. There's a reason nobody remembers what internal improvement acts the Congress passed in 1854. Dems either protect democracy or let it (and their party) die

As an added bonus, 2020 was yet another successful year for the GOP in keeping control of state legislatures in key states. This means, unless HR1 is passed and upheld, at least 10 more years of House districts severely gerrymandered in GOP's favor.
This is the ONLY issue today.