Cases are on the rise in many states. How worried am I? I am concerned, but not as much as I would have been 6 months ago with these trends. Short thread. 1/
Many states are doing quite well. I would like to see cases fall below 20 cases per 100,000 per day as a first goal and 10 as a second goal (and then the lower the better). By that measure, we are doing ok: 35 states are at or below 20 and 12 are below 10. 2/
Yet some states are resurging. MI and NJ are at ~50 cases per 100,000 per day and hosp rising too. Risk in those states is high, and leaders should intervene by closing high risk settings and accelerating vaccination. Fed govt could help by sending extra vax coming online. 3/
But at national level, unlike previous upticks, we now have vax coverage at ~16% and each day we distribute ~3M doses which will further reduce risk, day over day. This is on top of estimated 25-30% pop immunity from prior infection. 4/
And now that many people at highest risk of severe illness are vaccinated, we can expect hospitalizations and deaths to be lower relative to case burden. That’s another bit of good news, though I would still like to see cases come down too. 5/
Working against us is the variants, esp B117 which is now common and spreads more easily. This set us on a tougher course than we may have otherwise faced at this point, but the vaccines work well against B117 so distributing them as fast as possible still top priority. 6/
The bottom line for individuals is that if you are not fully vax or recently recovered you should still be taking all the usual precautions to reduce risk. That is what I am doing. But big picture, we are in a better position than if we were seeing these trends last fall. 7/7
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So, how are we doing with covid? Nationally, reported incidence has fallen from around 76 cases per 100,000 population per day to about 43. Better! But not yet good. Thresholds are contentious, but I think 20 as a first goal and 10 as a second goal are reasonable to start. 1/
Nationally, those thresholds correspond to approx. 66,000 and 33,000 daily cases, respectively. Right now, we’re at ~140,000 cases reported each day on average, so we need to more than halve incidence to get to Goal 1. 2/
What do 20 and 10 cases per 100,000 per day get you, practically? We will still be masking and distancing, for sure. In VT, where reported incidence is currently about 21, in a group of 10 people there is about a 10% chance someone has covid (caveat ahead) 3/
Fantastic development. This test is already authorized for home use without a prescription, including in children and people without symptoms. Increasing supply critical to allow people to easily access tests.
The test was authorized in Dec but supplies are limited. The Biden Admin is investing in expanding manufacturing capacity. It will take a while (months, probably) for that to result in more supply available to consumers, but we'll need tests for a long time so still useful.
The ~$30 price point is a little high to keep a few in the bathroom cabinet, but it will be a nice option. Looks like the Federal government will keep some of the supply, will be interesting to see how they are deployed. npr.org/sections/coron…
I could not be more thrilled that the Biden-Harris Administration has announced an intention to create a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics @dylanbgeorge 1/ whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
@dylanbgeorge This idea has a long history, with dozens of brilliant scientists, policymakers and innovators behind the wheel, including many who roll up their sleeves every day to make sure our leaders have what they need to fight outbreaks effectively @dylanbgeorge 2/ foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
But they shouldn’t have to self-organize or do this on a volunteer basis. We need a standing capability that can advance the science by creating and improve epidemic models and outbreak analytics… @dylanbgeorge 3/ centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publi…
There are around 30 big counties, with a combined population of over 12 million, where upwards of 40% of the population has been infected. It's stunning how hard the pandemic has hit part of the US.
Many of these counties have large institutions like prisons and jails, universities, and manufacturing or food production facilities. The NYT keeps a useful list of outbreaks in group settings. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
I’m volunteering w/ the Covid-19 Symptom Data Challenge. Colleagues at CMU and UMD have been surveying people (e.g. on Facebook) whether they or people they know have covid-like symptoms. The goal is to explore how this data can be useful for tracking the virus. 1/
The CMU team has some analyses exploring uses for the data. They found, for example, an association between covid-like illness and covid incidence at the state level in July. 2/
This seems promising at the county level as well, but there is a lot more exploration of the data to be done. What else can we do with this data, and how can it be useful to inform public health? That’s what the challenge is about – data discovery for public health. 3/
Today I had the honor of testifying on reopening K12 schools for the House Select Committee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Here is what I said. 1/
It was exactly 3 mos ago that I last testified - we had 25-30k cases and >2k deaths daily. I said then that I feared complacency, that we would become numb to the crisis and would again create the conditions that led to us being the worst affected country in the world. 2/
Since then, we have new therapies, we’ve made progress on finding a vaccine, and many more tests are available. But in other ways, the complacency I feared has come to pass. We have 55k+ new cases daily, and deaths are again rising. 3/