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Peter Walker Profile picture
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29 Mar, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Why @CDCDirector is leery of reopening across the country - brief 🧵 on current state of COVID metrics.

Nationally, cases are rising off of recent lows and that is matched by an uptick in hospital admissions (more of whom are younger, unvaccinated persons than before) 1/5
Clearly the case rise is happening in the Northeast and Midwest. 2/5
Regions with cases rising are also seeing hospital admissions follow suit, though more tightly correlated in the Midwest than NE. 3/5
Deaths are still falling everywhere (the uptick in the West is a result of backlogged deaths in CA).

Big remaining question: at what rate will hospitalizations lead to deaths in this new, semi-vaccinated world?
Michigan and New Jersey are the canaries in this particular case - Michigan hospital admissions now back around 45% of peak levels after dropping below 20% of peak back in February.

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More from @PeterJ_Walker

Peter Walker Profile picture
27 Dec 20
Little reminder🧵on the holiday effect in COVID data.

Major holidays have had significant effects on reported COVID data this year. Below you can see how COVID cases have responded to holidays with sharp declines in almost every instance. 1/
So why is that? A myriad of reasons. Some state don't report anything on a holiday, as their staff is given a well-deserved day off. People may be less likely to get a test on a holiday. Some states report a fraction of their known cases...it's messy. 2/
This reporting effect has dramatic impacts on known deaths as well. Given the extended lag between a COVID death and the public recognition of said death (anywhere from 7 days to 3 weeks), this will be a strange few weeks with both Xmas and NYE lag coming into play. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Peter Walker Profile picture
4 Oct 20
Final update 🧵 for the evening. Reminder that the initial tweet from the President was at 9:54pm PT on Thursday.

Since then, we've added 216 contacts to our tracker. 18 positive, 60 negative, 128 unknown.

Here's a breakdown of the positive cases thus far 1/n
When viewed on an event basis, the SCOTUS Rose Garden is the most impactful. 47 contacts so far and there are many more unknowns.

We'd like to include all possible contacts - staff, essential workers, etc deserve the same level of concern here 2/n
Here's a short gif of some of the options in the dashboard - lots of ways to dig into the data.

All of it is sourced (just click the arrows on any table to read the news article / tweet).

We'll keep looking - thx for your help, twitter!

@JesseOSheaMD @bhrenton @chrislhayes
Read 4 tweets
Peter Walker Profile picture
13 Sep 20
Rounding out another week of #COVID data - might be a good time to do a deeper dive into the numbers.

Optimistic 🧵 ahead...

First up - it was a good week. Holiday lag may have had some impact, but cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all fell from a week prior. 1/ Image
In our previous major hotspots, cases per million people have seen precipitous falls. Testing, while not at peak levels, has not fallen as much as cases (especially outside of Florida) 2/ Image
Currently hospitalized populations support the case declines. Down nearly 70% in the latest hotspots, and trending down more gently outside those 4 states. 3/

cc: @EricTopol, @DemFromCT Image
Read 8 tweets
Peter Walker Profile picture
7 Aug 20
Short thread on (what feels like continual) HHS
#COVID hospitalization issues.

Changeover to HHS happened 3+ weeks ago. So the data should be stable now, right?

Not even close. 1/
A select few states to illustrate the point. All numbers are currently hospitalized ppl per 100k population:

8/5 8/6
AR: 54 ?? (not even included)
FL: 46 31
TX: 34 15
AL: 41 8
SC: 30 3

They're all like that (see @JasonSalemi for full list) 2/
Ok, so why are they like that? Mostly because not all hospitals reported to HHS. But the % not reporting varies state by state, for a whole host of reasons.

More galling than the clearly faulty reporting system is the lack of communication. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Peter Walker Profile picture
28 Jul 20
For those interested in how the HHS directive has changed our ability to get accurate figures for the currently hospitalized patients in the US: covidtracking.com/blog/whats-goi…

A short summary thread - please read the below for more detail! 1/
As you see in here, HHS is reporting a higher number of currently hospitalized patients than the states. So...why?

A few reasons:
- The switch to HHS was urgent and had to take place on legacy systems. Some hospitals may not be able to report to both state and HHS every day. 2/
- States may be required to report more robust information to HHS. Some states, like Florida, only report confirmed primary diagnosis of COVID, while HHS requires suspected cases.

- Some states may not be including patients in VA hospitals in their totals. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Peter Walker Profile picture
14 Jun 20
Brief thread re: reopening and the impact on new cases.

Here's the full USA. Weekly #COVID tests in bars, % of those tests that were positive in circles.

Testing up, % positive down...this is a good chart. 1/

@NateSilver538 @JamesSurowiecki Image
Check in our original epicenter region, the Northeast. This includes: CT, MA, ME, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, and VT.

Wild that in late March, almost 40% of tests came back positive.

But this week only 1.9% did so.

Gradual reopening makes sense here 2/
@yayitsrob @DemFromCT Image
When we look at Arizona, the reason for a lot of angst these days, the trend is the opposite.

First phase of reopening on 5/8, when % positive was around 6.5%.

There's little doubt viral spread has increased - and it's moving faster this week. 3/

@ASlavitt @dougducey Image
Read 4 tweets

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