1/ The Closed-End Funds Puzzle: A Survey Review (Charrón)
"So far, none of the possible explanations from either traditional finance or behavioral finance has been able to fully account for the occurrence of the CEF puzzle."
2/ "Discounts are subject to wide variations over time and across funds. The fluctuations appear to be mean-reverting and highly correlated. When merger, liquidation, or conversion to open-end fund terminates a closed-end fund, prices tend to converge to reported NAVs."
3/ "Malkiel finds a positive relationship between discounts and unrealized appreciation and restricted stocks. Funds with higher liquidity, have higher premiums or lower discounts.
"On the other hand, Lee et al. showed that restricted holdings could not explain the discount."
4/ "Malkiel finds that restricted stock, turnover ratio and unrealized appreciation could explain the discounts, but not insider ownership, payout, or expenses.
"The greater the managerial stock ownership in the closed-end fund, the larger the discounts to NAV."
5/ "There is a positive relationship between discounts and unrealized capital appreciation.
"Discounts are pos. correlated with the variance of the assets.
"But British funds behave like U.S. funds, suggesting that the discount cannot be explained by country-specific taxes."
6/ "Lee and Moore hypothesize that a high dividend yield is the primary factor that drives the demand for closed-end bond funds. Their results show a very strong negative relationship between dividend yield and discounts even in the presence of the other explanatory variables."
7/ "The discount/premium can arise for funds with portfolios difficult to replicate, pay smaller dividends, with lower market values, and when the interest rates are high. Premia have an economically strong ability to predict returns, which is related to premium mean reversion."
8/ "Although Russel and Malhotra find prices of CEFs are affected by the expense ratio of the fund, size of fund, and fund family membership, they conclude that none of the theories individually or collectively can explain the CEF discount."
9/ "Lee et al., construct a value-weighted index of discounts. They find a strong correlation between the discounts of individual CEFs. They also find evidence that discounts narrow when small stocks do well, the correlation being stronger the smaller the stock."
10/ "Despite the fact that bond funds hold assets whose values are far less subject to waves of optimism or pessimism than stock funds, discounts on bond funds exhibit systematic risk which is essentially as large as that of stock funds."
1/ Dividend policy, signaling, and discounts on closed-end funds (Johnson, Lin, Song)
"CEFs that adopt minimum-dividend policies experience reductions in discounts, trade at smaller discounts than other funds, and earn greater subsequent excess returns."
2/ "Minimum-dividend policies are uncommon in bond CEFs, so we analyze equity CEFs.
"135 equity CEFs have data available some time during 1993-2001; 20% have minimum-dividend policies.
"We omit funds in their IPO year and ones that liquidate or open-end in the relevant years."
3/ "Funds with minimum-dividend policies realize greater unrealized capital appreciation and greater NAV returns.
"Discounts range from –29.05% (negative value = premium) to 37.51% with a mean of 10.75%. 82% of the fund-years represent funds trading at a discount to NAV."
1/ Excess Volatility and Closed-End Funds (Pontiff)
"The avg CEF's monthly return is 64% more volatile than its assets'. Although largely idiosyncratic, 15% of excess risk is explained by market risk, small-firm risk, and risk that affects other CEFs."
2/ Sample of 52 publicly-traded CEFs with more than six months of discount data (1965-85)
"If NAV (stock) returns have a larger effect on changes in premiums than stock (NAV) returns, then NAV returns are more (less) volatile than stock returns."
3/ "The average monthly CEF return variance is greater than the average NAV return variance.
"CEF prices also underreact to NAV returns. If the NAV is the fundamental value, this implies that CEF prices are excessively volatile, despite underreacting to fundamentals."
1/ Beware of Chasing Yield: Bond Fund Yield, Flows and Performance (Jiang, Li, Zheng)
"Investors chase bond funds with higher yields, even controlling for past returns. The return spread is less than half of the yield spread and comes from higher risk."
2/ "We select all actively managed fixed-income funds except money market and municipal bond funds.
"The higher distribution yield comes mainly from the SEC yield being net of expenses.
"The distribution yield is fat-tailed; managers have more discretion over distributions."
3/ "Fund yield is a component of total fund returns. The incremental effect of yield on flows shows that mutual fund investors pay extra attention to the yield component of the return.
"Bond funds with higher yields compared with peers in the same groups enjoy higher inflows."
Wealth tax
Higher top marginal tax rate
More SS taxes for higher earners
Higher corp tax rate
No more 1031 exchanges
Increase in LT cap gains to 39.6% for those earning $1 million+
MTM treatment for unrealized cap gains
... accountingtoday.com/opinion/bidens…
From an investor's point of view, high long-term capital gains rates and mark-to-market would seem to encourage higher-turnover trading.
You'd have to be a heck of a trader to make up the difference between the old and new tax rates, but a lot of people would probably try.
This might also encourage traders to adopt high-Sharpe strategies (yes, Sharpe as opposed to Sortino) in order to smooth out their incomes and avoid getting into higher tax brackets.
(So maybe more diversification, carry trading, and *left* tail hedging)
3/ "New York was celebrating a financial boom. New institutions opened on every corner, filling the canyons of Wall Street with retail banks, commercial banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms. Investors in mining, real estate, and transportation were flush with funds.