1/n The four deadly sins plaguing our vaccination effort – a short thread
2/n Why is India’s vaccination drive so sluggish? We have so far administered 63illion or 6.3 crore doses. With our population of 130 plus crore, we would need to vaccinate at least 70% with two doses, six to eight weeks apart.
3/nWe started with some advantages. We are vaccine factory of the world. We had tie ups with multiple global pharma companies and were also developing our own vaccines. We manage on of the most complex and voluminous vaccination programme for children annually
4/nIn January 2 itself, the DCGI announced it had given emergency use authorisation to two vaccines – one called Covishield, made by Serum Institute with license from Oxford-Astra Zeneca. The other a home grown Covaxin, made by Bharat Biotech & ICMR, which hadn’t completed ph 3
5/n The government started negotiating the prices with both. And then committed four deadly sins.
6/n First deadly sin: It placed piecemeal orders. Most countries were trying to secure as many doses as possible but the government placed orders for just a 1.1 lakh crore doses with SII and 55 lakh doses with Bharat Biotech. It placed more orders in February and again March
7/n This is a problem because if vaccine manufacturers have been guaranteed volumes and have a schedule, they can plan their vaccines better and also priorities domestic supplies over exports. Everything moves a bit more smoothly
8/n Second deadly sin: There is over centralisation. Union govt decides who is to be vaccinated, in which centres, how many vaccines each state will get, which vaccine they will get -- everything down to the last bit, completely losing on flexibility or knowledge of ground level
9/n Mumbai saw that people were not going to vaccination centres so they asked permission to do door to door vaccination. It was not given – though it may be. But if states are responsible for the vaccination process, they need more flexibility to ensure doses aren't wasted
10/n Third deadly sin: Poor communication. On the ground the number of confused people and misinformation is immense. People are getting their ideas and notions from Whatsapp, not official channels that the government could use
n/n Fourth deadly sin: Even though multiple vaccines have been cleared by different global regulators since January, the government has not asked the Indian regulator to speed up the process of approval to those who have tie ups with other Indian makers...
1.1 crore doses, not 1.1 lakh crore * sorry
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1/n The jobs problem is going to remain with us for a very long time. 1) GDP is not growing as fast as it should 2) New jobs per unit GDP growth has come down over time 3) The number of people joining the job market is growing moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/l…
2/n The issue is that after a rebound in 2021-22, a number of fairly respected economists think that India will be stuck to a 4-6% growth range for quite some years ... this is bad news
3/n This is bad news because as many people have pointed out, we are entering a situation where even a 10% growth will not add enough jobs to satisfy the number of people joining the job market every year
I see many Bhakts jump in and trash talk journalists while claiming they run businesses. Well here is the problem. In business journalism at least, people who have spent a decade and a half reporting on specific sectors build up domain knowledge 1/3
So a reporter covering banking, or telecom or automobiles or agriculture will generally have both decent facts as well as informed opinion assuming s/he is intelligent and has been working hard 2/3
3/3 This makes their opinion better than a businesssman who claims to be an entrepreneur running “actual business” but not in that specific sector unless s/he has also been tracking that particular sector for a long time. So a builder, say, will be no expert on telecom
Rant alert. Apart from not bothering whether migrant labour had shelter and food or how to transport them back home, no authority tried to screen or test anyone showing symptoms during the prolonged lockdown 1/n
There was a good chance that most were not infected when the lockdown started. After all, the virus was coming back from around the globe with the rich and middle class and a lot of migrant labour were still safe because they had not come into prolonged contact with infected 2/n
However, by completely mishandling the lockdown removal protocols and their transport back to their villages, both at central and state levels, what we ensured was that they came in prolonged contact with others who were also not tested or screened 3/n
I don't know why anyone is shocked by the Goldman Sach's estimates of a recession in India...just look at some of the important sectors which have come to a complete halt -- Malls, Domestic airlines, Hospitality, Movie making and theatres... 1/n
Apart from these, the industries which are starting up, including textiles, garments, electronics manufacturing etc have endured a 40 plus day shut down and even now are allowed to operate at 40-50% efficiency...
Even essential products like food, pharma and hygiene manufacturers are operating at no more than 50-70% capacities... consumption has come crashing down in things like milk, eggs, mutton, fish and others 3/n
Some people, including one senior columnist, has asked what could the government has possibly done differently in dealing with the #Coronaviruspandemic. So let me list a few things that are not outlandish suggestions and could easily have been done 1/n
The first is, treating India as a priority over his SAARC friends. He had a video conference with SAARC leaders to discuss on the strategy for the pandemic four days before he got around to meeting the state CMs...2/n
Two, instead of giving four hours notice for a 21-day lockdown, he could have made his announcement in the morning itself. This would be imminently possible given that the announcement that he would address the nation was made much earlier 3/n
Ok, some thoughts on the #GDP back series calculated by the #CSO. First, the MCA 21 database on which much of the new methodology is based simply did not exist before 2006-07....More importantly, it was not comparable before 2010-11.
Given the importance of MCA 21 for the GDP calculations, I suspect former chief statistician TCA Anant just did not want to bring out a back series when the MCA21 was not available... and the only alternate was CMIE Prowess data...
The problem that anyone will have in the current back series will not be about methodology. It will be about the assumptions and alternate data sources used for calculations because comparable data did not exist