There has been something of a moral panic about gatherings of young people in Nottingham parks. Some thoughts @BBCNottingham@bbcemt@NottinghamPost (1/8)
Always mistrust ground level photos and videos of such gatherings - the lenses used tend to foreshorten the images and give a stronger impression of crowding than is actually the case. Only drone footage can give an accurate picture of the density and social groupings (2/8)
Research by sociologists and social psychologists has for more than 100 years shown that crowds are not random aggregates of individuals but collections of small groups - people who came together, will mostly interact with each other, and will leave together (3/8)
If a large number of small groups spontaneously decide to go to the same place at the same time on a sunny day, this does not constitute over-crowding. This was clear last summer when going to beaches did not produce Covid outbreaks (4/8)
If some of the groups seem large, remember the ingenuity of Nottingham landlords in maximizing the number of people in shared housing. With a 2 household rule, a group can legally be as many as 16-20 people (5/8)
No-one should defend the mess left behind - but we can reasonably ask how well @MyNottingham provided bins, etc on the day. The lack of places to put rubbish in Nottingham parks has been evident for a while (6/8)
This should not be used by civic leaders to stoke student/resident conflict. Students live in the city as well and make a crucial contribution to the local economy. The city claims to want more of them to stick around as graduates. Make them feel part of the city (7/8)
Welcome and integration are not best promoted by sanctimony, aggressive policing and an invasion of parks by killjoy marshals. Low-risk groups have gathered in a low-risk environment. It was well-established last autumn that student infections did not spread into cities (8/8)
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I have now been able to review the Warwick model that projects continuing Covid restrictions until late next year (1/7) gov.uk/government/pub…
As I suspected, a key problem is a failure to re-calibrate the outcomes to reflect the impact of vaccination. This is the key assumption: "We sub-divide into the effects of protection against symptoms (disease efficacy) and reduction in transmission" (2/7)
However, if we believe the trial evidence, and emerging real-world experience, Covid-19 will look very different in a post-vaccine world. The model aggregates all infections to generate a 'disease burden'. (3/7)
.@ClareCraigPath has been getting a hard time for questioning whether an asymptomatic infection can be a disease. She has a better grasp of the philosophical issue than her critics, which tells us something interesting about the difference between medicine and biology. (1/7)
LS King was a wise US physician "Biological science does not try to distinguish between health and disease. Biology is concerned with the interaction between living organisms and their environment. What we call health or disease is quite irrelevant." (2/7) jstor.org/stable/185276
Medicine, and related sciences, are ways to control the world in the interests of - some or all - humans. Biology seeks to understand it. The idea of an asymptomatic infection does not make sense in biology (3/7)
I am very concerned about the implicit ageism in a lot of the debate around Christmas - and more generally around Coivd-19 policy. Some highlights from @age_uk valuable overview of the lives of people over 65 (1/5) ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/a…
There are just under 12 million people in the UK aged over 65 - only 400,000 live in care homes. 93.5% of those aged 60-9 are not considered frail by official definitions. Even among the 90+group, 35% are not defined as frail (2/5)
24% of those over 50 in England report feeling lonely some of the time: 7% feel this often. Loneliness, social isolation, and living alone have all been associated with an increased risk of premature death. They are also thought to bring a 40% increase in risk of dementia (3/5)
There is currently a great deal of fear-mongering about Christmas visits in the UK. In order to assess the risk associated with a family or social visit within the rules, it is useful to consider some facts. The science is not exact but the orders of magnitude are secure (1/8)
Around 20%, possibly up to 30%, of infections are asymptomatic - the person will not know they have been infected. Around 80% of symptomatic infections are mild or moderate. They do not require a hospital admission (2/8)
The risks of serious illness and death increase with age - but most people recover. Estimates from the First Wave, published in Nature, suggest 30 deaths in 1000 infections (970 survivors) among 65-74 year olds and 116 (884 survivors) in 75+ year olds (3/8)
As a public health scientist, I think it is irresponsible to continue promoting fear and anxiety about the Covid-19 risks of Christmas when we cannot know the circumstances of every individual's life. (1/4)
I am 70 with no known co-morbidities. Several of my likely family visitors have already had Covid and recovered. They will still be largely immune from reinfection - risk is 1 in several million. I shall hug them freely. (2/4)
I have four grandchildren under 6. Children of this age represent a minimal risk. I shall hug them as freely as I have done all along because I think the value to each party exceeds the risk. (3/4)