Seeing some skepticism to this thread based on the long-running relationship between business and the GA GOP. This is a part of the shift of GA turning blue, suburban and college-educated voters turning blue, the GOP’s evolution under Trump, and corporate America’s shift on race.
In Georgia at least, 2018 is gone. There’s no going back to 2018, even if organizations like @atlchamber wish we could go back there.
Coca-Cola CEO on CNBC saying the Georgia legislation is unacceptable and a step backwards. “It’s wrong and needs to be remedied.”
This time is different, folks. Get ready for the marriage of Stacey Abrams and corporate Atlanta as a new metro/statewide “Atlanta Way.”
Is corporate Atlanta going to throw its lot in with Abrams, Ossoff, and Warnock or Marjorie Taylor Greene, David Shafer, Vernon Jones, Jody Hice, and whatever other B-team candidates the GA GOP puts up in 2022? The choice is clear.
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Media hasn’t caught up with how much of a free for all vaccinations are now. Lots of young people are getting it, word’s getting out.
Things I’ve heard of:
-end of day/expiring doses (helps to have a connection who will alert you)
-saying you’re a caretaker for an elderly person
-website loopholes
-places not verifying medical conditions
Been thinking about the @davidshor “low trust voter” dynamics since @Wertwhile brought them up, and covid, and the Electoral College, and my related thought is do high trust conservative voters still exist, or is conservatism today defined by being a low trust person?
To the extent the GOP is now a low trust party, they need to do very well in states like AZ/WI/MI/PA/NC/GA, but the tension is the higher trust suburbs and exurbs continue to move away from them. A low trust path to 270 gets tougher.
And to the extent politics is sorting around education and social trust rather than race, lower turnout is going to benefit Democrats, so it’s Republicans who are going to end up fighting for higher turnout even if they don’t realize it yet.
Denver -25%
Charlotte -25%
San Antonio -29%
Houston -32%
Dallas -34%
Austin -36%
Las Vegas -37%
Atlanta -37%
Boston -51%
Chicago -58%
DC -59%
Portland -62%
LA -71%
Seattle -78%
NYC -82%
SF -83%
In June/July the saying of “there’s no tradeoff between virus suppression and the economy” was true, but I wonder if that’s going to break down in September/October.
If you have an election model based on economic data, something to consider is the nature of what happened in Q2/Q3 economic activity and how that flows into Q3 GDP numbers.
Say you had 7 units of economic activity in April, and then 10 units of economic activity in each of May-September. 27 units in Q2, 30 in Q3.
That means that Q3 activity would be 11% more than Q2 even though activity would have been flat from May-September, merely by not having the abysmal April in Q3.
The results in the Senate special elections are interesting. They’ve got Loeffler ahead of Collins. And it remains puzzling why Raphael Warnock continues to have no traction among Dems despite being endorsed by everyone: