Starting my own thread of OSINT indicators about how the Ukrainian-Russian Donbass military buildup is progressing.
First casualties of the day appear to be an errant truck.

Dark humor aside, it was crossing a river bridge carrying equipment for making bridges to cross rivers.
General consensus from the tank enthusiasts/OSINTs was that these were T-72s.
Naturally, people wanted to know if any of the flight apps see anything interesting from the air.

There is a single IL-76 of the Russian 224th State Flight Unit returning from (I believe) Syria, which is a fairly common affair.

RA-78842 #1533FA. Seen via @ua4wiy_

4/
While it may not pertain to the tension between Ukraine & Russia, it is of note because of Russian command structure.

RuAF 🇷🇺 IL-96-400VPU airborne command post RA-96104 #157768 departing Moscow Vnukovo (VKO/UUWW), heading NW, FL320, Speed 370.

5/
Flying to meet the IL-96-400VPU at St. Petersburg Pulkovo (LED/ULLI) is this Russian Navy 🇷🇺 Tu-154M RF-85856 #1B4F60 from the Murmansk region where Northern Fleet HQ is. The Tu-154M had been over Moscow earlier today.

Both the Tu-154M & IL-96-400VPU are landing currently.

6/
Worth noting the overwhelming majority of those separatist fighters were Ukrainian citizens prior to the Donbass fighting.

7/
A souring of relations between Italy and Russia in the past day or so. If you recall, during the COVID response, Italy was frequently very gracious at Russian help, a fact NATO was constantly irked about.

8/
@SecBlinken makes a statement in regards to the US position on the matter: "unwavering support" for Ukraine sovereignty.

9/
Image of a truck on a train reported in the last few days to be a part of the Russian buildup. I included the still image because of unit identifiers on the front. No date or location confirmed at all.

11/
Follow up to earlier.

Russian Navy 🇷🇺 Tu-154M RF-85856 #1B4F60 headed south around Ukraine 🇺🇦.

12/
While a lot of the focus has been on Russia, it is worth noting that there is another side in this, and that a lot of their equipment looks identical to the Russian stuff.

15/
Company-sized column including BMDs, reportedly in Crimea today.

H/t @MartinSebesta for the earlier correction.

16/
What amounts to 2 artillery batteries, one MLRS, one towed, missing from Ukraine inventory report provided by OSCE, per source.

19/
Above video's claimed location would put fuel trucks here.
20(A)/
Revised estimate: company-sized (at least) Ukrainian 🇺🇦 military fuel convoy.

Kamaz 4322s?

20(B)/
Two of NATO's naval element leaving the Black Sea.

NATO/Romanian naval exercise Sea Shield 21 wrapped up late last month.

21/
From earlier today, apparently.

Man claims this is heading for Crimea, "BTR-82s or something." 40 vehicles in the video. Would essentially be enough for a BTR Motor Rifle Battalion.

22/
2nd update on Russian Navy 🇷🇺 Tu-154M RF-85856.

Landed in Yeysk, then Sevastopol, Yeysk again, and now back to St. Petersburg.

This plane's engines haven't been cold in several days now.

12(A)/
For those who are unaware, these kind of incidents have happened sporadically for years.

24/

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More from @vcdgf555

30 Mar
One of the cheekiest things I've seen in a while from CCP censors.

Gonna post this, go pour myself a cup of coffee, then will be back in 10 minutes. See if you can spot what I see.
Ok, back.

Lately the Chinese military has been switching some aircraft nose numbers to a two digit format, like this example I noted yesterday. The Y-8Q above has no 2nd digit, which instantly raised suspicion. Could it be a new format of just one digit?
No, or at least, not this time!

The photographer chose a set up to catch the lens flare. Light should not bend, correct?

Well, it just so happens to bend conveniently where a 2nd digit would be!
Read 6 tweets
29 Mar
Good morning.

Last night, I spotted two aircraft using military callsigns and ranges of hex codes leaving the Dalian, Shanghai region where known Y-8Q/KQ-200 (GX6) & Y-8JZ (GX8) are based. They overflew the western Pacific east of Taiwan near Okinawa, then returned.
The easiest airframe to be identified is the Y-8Q/KQ-200 (GX6), tail no. 82014.

Given there was a Y-8Q last night on FR24 within the hex code ranges of other known Y-8Q codes, I feel confident #7A431C belongs to 82014. The margin of error exists because #7A431D was also out. ImageImageImage
The other aircraft is a Y-8JZ (GX8), nose no. 24. There are 8 known Y-8JZs, of which the serial range for 4 of them are tied to 9xx1 coding from PLANAF 2nd Div/6th Air Regt.

9211, 9221, 9231 & 9241 S/Ns exist. I'm confident this one is 9241.

Note the new paint area on the tail. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
25 Dec 20
Rumblings of trouble in Iraq tonight. May turn into a thread as situation progresses.
Pair of KC-135s over UAE, heading west currently.

60-0337 (AE0482)
59-1502 (AE0597)
This is what started the trouble. AAH militias threatening a response.
Read 25 tweets
25 Dec 20
Thread. Any further developments or OSINT spots regarding the vehicle explosion in downtown Nashville will go here.
Image of the smoke plume. Note the tall red building.
Geolocation image from Google Earth showing same view in Nashville as that of above tweet.
Read 13 tweets
24 Dec 20
Libya becoming a potential hotspot again in the coming days.
A current look at some of the Libyan-registered aircraft up right now.

Libyan Airlines A320 5A-LAP
Buraq Airlines B737-800 5A-DMG
Spotted at Mitiga/Tripoli as well right now.

Libyan Airlines A330 5A-LAR
Read 4 tweets
24 Dec 20
Currently over the Persian Gulf, spotted on FR24.

Three separate KC-135 tankers.

59-1515 (AE07A9)
62-3578 (AE07BE)
63-8003 (AE0139)
4th KC-135 tanker, approaching coast of Kuwait.

60-0343 (AE04E7)
A good example of what an RAF Sentinel R.1 battlefield surveillance aircraft flight path would look like for maximum coverage as it cruised thru Jordanian airspace just south of the Syrian border at Angels 43.

RRR9985 is reg. ZJ692 (43C09D).
Read 6 tweets

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