Thread by @jonworth

2 days ago I wrote about Janssen / Johnson & Johnson 💉, with the tentative conclusion that an 🇪🇺-based supply chain was solid enough to mean there would be no EU-US-J&J spat to mirror the EU-UK-AZ spat

Does that still hold?

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1376485610836406272

What changed?

15m J&J doses at the Baltimore 🇺🇸 plant had to be ditched

nytimes.com/2021/03/31/wor…

So will J&J divert doses intended for the EU to the USA to make up for that shortfall?

The answer to that is:
* We don't know *

We have nothing yet to indicate doses are diverted

How many 💉 doses have been sent from 🇪🇺 to 🇺🇸 so far?

* We don't know *
(or not with any precision anyway)

The European Commission was last week happy to announce 77 million 💉 doses exported from 🇪🇺 to 🌎 and even told us 21 million went to 🇬🇧, but what was the number to 🇺🇸?

* We don't know *

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1375090365254934531

It was 950k between 31 Jan and 9 Mar, but what % was J&J? And what happened before or since?

* We don't know *

theguardian.com/world/2021/mar…

Volkskrant mentions 4 million, but the report dates from end of February (thanks @TWPieterse for the link) - so it that right?

* We don't know *

volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achterg…

New York Times thinks it might be up to 24 million, but what of that has been sent from Netherlands already? Thanks for the link @FaktaShake, but you guessed it...

* We don't know *

nytimes.com/2021/03/26/us/…

So, what *do we know*?

Some J&J 💉 have been exported from 🇳🇱 to 🇺🇸, probably closer to 4m than 24m

J&J does not have to export vaccine for finishing in 🇺🇸 because that can be done at Reig Jofre 🇪🇸 and IDT Biologika 🇩🇪

J&J is not *reliant* on plants in 🇺🇸 to supply 🇪🇺 (either for production or finishing), nor vice versa, when times are normal

The conclusion:

What impact on J&J deliveries will the 15m lost doses in Baltimore have on 🇪🇺 supply?

* We don't know *

So please don't assume there is an impact until we all know more!

/ends