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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
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1 Apr, 5 tweets, 3 min read
The latest @ONS infection survey includes breakdown by age for all home nations.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

We're seeing two different epidemics by age (thx to @dgurdasani1 for phrase).

(expand gif to see corresponding dates and whole thing) 1/4
The increase in younger children after schools go back is very obvious in Scotland (after 22 Feb) and in England (after 8 March) while decrease in older ages continues.

So vaccination & restrictions offsetting opening of schools - this is good! BUT 2/4
With the release of latest long covid estimates from ONS infection survey today as well, I still don't think we should be complacent about lots of younger people reporting long covid (10%-13%).

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… 3/4
Plus 25% of 35-49 year olds reporting long covid - this is the age group with the highest level of covid in England after school age kids (parents??).

And even if hospitalisation for them is rare, covid problems can continue long after discharge :-(
bmj.com/content/372/bm… 4/4
PS it is good news that pfizer results show that vaccine is very effective and well tolerated in teenagers.

npr.org/sections/coron…

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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
31 Mar
Was briefly on @BBCOne News @ 6 last night discussing the (excellent) findings from the ONS Covid antibody survey that came out yesterday.

Clip is here but a couple of things to add:
Having so many people with antibodies is great news and will help keep cases (and severe illness) down, but we still have millions without antibodies.

Israel is showing that opening up with high vax, masks, social distancing, test & trace keeps cases going down sharply.
Antibodies declining in older people as they approach many weeks from first dose. Does *not* mean they are no longer protected but it does mean we need to concentrate on giving people their 2nd doses. Strong case for shorter interval for very vulnerable.
blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/03/30…
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
26 Mar
THREAD on concerning variants in England:

Some signs that they are spreading - slowly and from very low numbers - but spreading nonetheless.

Why I think this and what it means - let's dive in: 1/13
The Kent strain (B117) has been over 90% of cases in England since mid-Jan. It is 30-50% more transmissible than the old Covid strain and so came to dominate over about 2 months.

All existing vaccines work brilliantly against B117. 2/13
Vaccines work less well against some other Covid strains.

Particularly concerning are the South Africa (B1351) and Brazil (P1) strains.

Public Health England is tracking these (& similar) variants and doing surge testing to try to contain them.

gov.uk/guidance/surge… 3/13
Read 14 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
24 Mar
I've been looking at latest English data by age.

Cases in school age children are definitely going up while other age groups are flat or falling (slowly).

Some of this increase is undoubtedly because of mass lateral flow device testing rolled out to schools. But NOT all. 1/7
*Primary* school age kids are *not* getting routinely tested - tests are still symptom based. We see little change in cases week of 8th March but we start seeing quite rapid increase 14th March onwards.

This is consistent with increased spread since schools opened. 2/7
*Secondary* school age cases started going up around 8 March - when mass testing started.

But if it was *only* mass testing, then you'd expect cases to flatten the next week (15th March onwards), as similar number of LFDs done both weeks.

But cases keep going up. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
22 Mar
THREAD: Boris Johnson is basically talking bollocks about the 3rd wave in Europe inevitably coming here and he must know it.

It's cynical opportunism to blame any resurgence in England on the European wave. It is frankly absurd. Here's why: 1/6

bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-po…
The Europe wave is not coming here *because we've already have it*.

Instead, it's taken two months for our "Kent" strain (B117) to spread across the EU and start a new wave there. OLD restrictions work on the OLD strain but NOT Kent. So cases go up as soon it is dominant. 2/6
If cases start steadily going up here it will be for one of two reasons (or both!):

1) As we found out in Dec, OLD mitigations don't work on B117. But opening up with OLD mitigations relying on vaccination to help keep cases down & chaotic mass testing (esp schools). 3/6
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
20 Mar
THREAD on EUROPE:
Many headlines today about Europe's third wave, what it means for us and, in particular, international travel.

thetimes.co.uk/article/surge-…

Some thoughts about what it means... 1/11
Firstly, the current increases in Europe are because B117 (the Kent strain) has become dominant there - move than 70% in Denmark, NL, 50-70% in France, Belgium, Itlay, Germany & Austria. 2/11
As with us in Dec, they didn't act decisively to stop its spread - instead they've been in semi-restrictions (similar to our tier 3) - enough to bring *down* cases of old variant but not enough to stop B117.

B117 was only 5-10% in EU early Feb 3/11
Read 12 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
20 Mar
THREAD on SCHOOLS:

It's now 4 weeks since Scotland & Wales started a phased return to primary schools (secondary schools went back last week) & 2 weeks since all schools in England went back.

What is happening? 1/15
First let's look at Wales. They started sending young kids back to nursery and primary schools 22nd Feb. Older primary school kids & secondary school went back last week.

Wales publish new Covid incidents in schools - and (unsurprisingly) incidents are increasing. 2/15
Secondly, Scotland. There we have case data by age.

Primary school kids only get a test if they get symptoms. School staff can get tested without symptoms if they want. All positive cases from lateral flow device tests (LFDs) are PCR confirmed.

Testing has stayed flat. 3/15
Read 18 tweets

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