Also: constituency vote indicates that the SNP have not managed to turn the Hamilton Report moment into a strategic reset. Instead this poll, much like the general trend since October last year, suggests a continued slow unravelling of SNP support in the constituency numbers.
Only question is, will SNP support unravel fast enough to have an impact in the election in five weeks time? That I don't know.
Last observation: I'm not surprised the Green vote has held up. I never expected Alba to steal their voters. Type of voter who votes Green backs the Gender Reform, the Hate Crime legislation - the sorts of nationalist voters Alba appeals to oppose those things.
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A recent poll has made a big splash about the potential of this #Supermajority. But if we take a moment to just look at the polling trend lines, it's far too early to be making any sort of prognostication about any such thing.
Plus SNP majority? What SNP majority?
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➡️Trend line since January 2021 - early April
Even to a layman's eyes, the downward trajectory of SNP support in regional polling is obvious.
If anyone is interested, the trendlines are local regressions (LOESS)
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Here the same downward trajectory can also still be seen with SNP constituency polling; albeit their support on the constituency has a higher upper level it's declining from.
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A fourth thread in my series calling out #Holyrood2021 election half truths, misleading nonsense & lies.
I'm focusing on a misleading claim by @theSNP about 'ending period poverty' for women. Also questioning just how 'committed' they are to improving the lives of women.
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I want to focus specifically on the highlighted claim, where the SNP are claiming credit for 'ending period poverty' for women.
This features as part of a wider claim about 'improving the life chances of women' more generally.
Date of their tweet was April 2nd 2021.
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➡️On ending period poverty for women
The heart of this boast by the SNP is the 'Period Products (Free Provision) (Scotland) Bill'; which was unanimously passed into law in November 2020.
Unanimous! Great, so the SNP deserve the credit you might think...but wait...
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So far we've seen the SNP being told to repay £20,000 in #Covid19 support grants. Money originally intended to support small businesses, instead used to support nationalist politicking.
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It's clear that Tim Rideout was teaching SNP supporters ways to 'game' the Covid business support grants.
But not just that, proceeding to also encourage a diversion of funds to his own group.
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And his facebook boast "I have made over £50k for the indy cause today" stands ingloriously out there for all to see.
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FM spoke of the importance of equality of opportunity in her 2016 priorities for Gov speech: “It will help to create not just a fairer nation, but one that is wealthier, healthier and happier”
Let’s look at food insecurity & childhood health to see if she delivered.
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📈 Food Insecurity Rising 📈
The 2019 Scottish Health Survey showed that 9% of adults experienced food insecurity in the preceding 12 months.
While this is bad, it’s actually worse than you think.
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The percentage food insecurity was 8% in 2017. It actually increased to 9% in 2018 and has stayed there through 2019. So food insecurity got worse under the SNP 2017-2019.
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Let's try explain why the SNP are being so personal in their attacks on defectors to Alba; and what is worrying them.
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1. Even before Alba launched their party, it was touch and go if the SNP would even secure the necessary extra list MSPs they craved to land a majority.
You can see, even before Alba launched, the SNP list support had been dropping significantly since August last year.
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2. Constituency polling numbers over roughly the same time period have also been dropping.
SNP's fear that Alba dog-&-pony show could further erode SNP support on constituency. Divided parties lose elections, Alba stripping SNP of strategic control of media narrative.
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The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) reveals Govanhill is ranked in the 10% ‘most deprived areas’ in income, education, housing and crime. Second most deprived in employment & health. (as of 2020)
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If we flip to the 2016 SIMD map, we also see huge amounts of 'most deprived 10%' deprivation, around Govanhill. Some progress has been made, but not much. Not enough for those suffering severe deprivation.
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