A recent poll has made a big splash about the potential of this #Supermajority. But if we take a moment to just look at the polling trend lines, it's far too early to be making any sort of prognostication about any such thing.

Plus SNP majority? What SNP majority?

[1/11]
➡️Trend line since January 2021 - early April

Even to a layman's eyes, the downward trajectory of SNP support in regional polling is obvious.

If anyone is interested, the trendlines are local regressions (LOESS)
[2/11]
Here the same downward trajectory can also still be seen with SNP constituency polling; albeit their support on the constituency has a higher upper level it's declining from.
[3/11]
➡️Eroding SNP support since last year

If we look wider than Jan 2021, we see on the regional polling a consistent picture of eroding SNP support.

August 10th - March 19th. Since this time snap, SNP list polling has fallen sub 40%; the picture has worsened since March.
[4/11]
And it surely goes without saying that an SNP barely scrapping one or two list MSPs isn't going to secure a majority (they need 65 MSPs for an outright majority).

The regional polling suggests another minority SNP gov't is most likely.
[5/11]
Even on the constituency, if we take a wider look it's clear SNP polling has been eroding since last year.

Oct 7 - March 19 indicates the scale of the lost SNP support. The trend lines Jan to April 2021 do not, based on the trend lines, suggest any change to slow slide.
[6/11]
➡️Nicola Sturgeon's approvals

Based on Survation polling Nicola Sturgeon's personal numbers have gotten worse since the 2016 election.

These survation polls are Scotland specific.
[7/11]
While the Scotland-specific numbers show Ms Sturgeon's personal ratings in decline among Scots; her UK wide ratings are even worse. Here is renfield and wilton strategies recently recording their lowest ever net rating for the FM.
[8/11]
So what can we conclude from all of this?

1⃣ Don't bother with individual polls, they are meaningless in isolation. Merely a snapshot in time. What matters are the wider trends of data.

2⃣ There is no reason to assume (so far) the SNP's downward trend lines are halting
[9/11]
3⃣ The First Minister wanted the Hamilton Report to be a strategic 'reset' moment, I don't see much evidence of that having happened (so far)

4⃣ The election has a long way to go, so stop your fussing over individual polls everyone. Spare yourself the heart palpitations.
[10/11]
5⃣ Based on the data trends *so far* the most likely outcome is another SNP minority government...BUT...

6⃣ I repeat one last time for emphasis IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE SOLID PREDICTIONS.
[11/11]

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More from @DeanMThomson

2 Apr
A fourth thread in my series calling out #Holyrood2021 election half truths, misleading nonsense & lies.

I'm focusing on a misleading claim by @theSNP about 'ending period poverty' for women. Also questioning just how 'committed' they are to improving the lives of women.
[1/12]
I want to focus specifically on the highlighted claim, where the SNP are claiming credit for 'ending period poverty' for women.

This features as part of a wider claim about 'improving the life chances of women' more generally.
Date of their tweet was April 2nd 2021.
[2/12]
➡️On ending period poverty for women

The heart of this boast by the SNP is the 'Period Products (Free Provision) (Scotland) Bill'; which was unanimously passed into law in November 2020.

Unanimous! Great, so the SNP deserve the credit you might think...but wait...
[3/12]
Read 15 tweets
2 Apr
So, what on earth is going on in Angus?

So far we've seen the SNP being told to repay £20,000 in #Covid19 support grants. Money originally intended to support small businesses, instead used to support nationalist politicking.
[1/6] Image
It's clear that Tim Rideout was teaching SNP supporters ways to 'game' the Covid business support grants.

But not just that, proceeding to also encourage a diversion of funds to his own group.
[2/6] Image
And his facebook boast "I have made over £50k for the indy cause today" stands ingloriously out there for all to see.
[3/6] Image
Read 8 tweets
1 Apr
Interesting in lots of ways.

Most obvious is Alba has further eroded SNP support on the list, but at only 3% unlikely to get anyone elected.

They might take enough support from the SNP to stop them getting list MSPs, while not getting enough switchers to get any Alba elected.
Also: constituency vote indicates that the SNP have not managed to turn the Hamilton Report moment into a strategic reset. Instead this poll, much like the general trend since October last year, suggests a continued slow unravelling of SNP support in the constituency numbers.
Only question is, will SNP support unravel fast enough to have an impact in the election in five weeks time? That I don't know.
Read 4 tweets
30 Mar
FM spoke of the importance of equality of opportunity in her 2016 priorities for Gov speech: “It will help to create not just a fairer nation, but one that is wealthier, healthier and happier”

Let’s look at food insecurity & childhood health to see if she delivered.
(1/11)
📈 Food Insecurity Rising 📈

The 2019 Scottish Health Survey showed that 9% of adults experienced food insecurity in the preceding 12 months.

While this is bad, it’s actually worse than you think.
(2/11)
The percentage food insecurity was 8% in 2017. It actually increased to 9% in 2018 and has stayed there through 2019. So food insecurity got worse under the SNP 2017-2019.
(3/11)
Read 12 tweets
29 Mar
Here is one for the polling lovers.

Let's try explain why the SNP are being so personal in their attacks on defectors to Alba; and what is worrying them.
[1/7]
1. Even before Alba launched their party, it was touch and go if the SNP would even secure the necessary extra list MSPs they craved to land a majority.

You can see, even before Alba launched, the SNP list support had been dropping significantly since August last year.
[2/7]
2. Constituency polling numbers over roughly the same time period have also been dropping.

SNP's fear that Alba dog-&-pony show could further erode SNP support on constituency. Divided parties lose elections, Alba stripping SNP of strategic control of media narrative.
[3/7]
Read 8 tweets
28 Mar
Nicola Sturgeon, correctly, praises her constituency. Glasgow southside is populated by good, honest people.

But what has the First Minister actually achieved for her constituency? Well, reviewing the evidence, I say #VoteAnas in Glasgow Southside
[1/12]
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) reveals Govanhill is ranked in the 10% ‘most deprived areas’ in income, education, housing and crime. Second most deprived in employment & health. (as of 2020)
[2/12]
If we flip to the 2016 SIMD map, we also see huge amounts of 'most deprived 10%' deprivation, around Govanhill. Some progress has been made, but not much. Not enough for those suffering severe deprivation.
[3/12]
Read 18 tweets

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