THREAD // The Pareto Principle: 80/20 Rule

“The Pareto principle (also known as the 80-20 rule, the law of the vital few and the principle of factor sparsity) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

Works with trading as well...
2 // The original observation was in connection with income and wealth. Pareto noticed that 80% of Italy’s wealth was owned by 20% of the population. He then carried out surveys on a variety of other countries and found to his surprise that a similar distribution applied.
3 // Note that 80/20 is simply shorthand for a very lopsided relationship between causes & results. The numbers don’t have to add up to 100. In some cases, 30 percent of causes may lead to 70 percent of results. Or the split may be 80/10, or 90/10, or even 99/1.
4 // Researchers find that the top 20 percent of people, natural forces, economic inputs, or any other causes we can measure typically lead to about 80 percent of results, outputs, or effects.

Focus on the 20% that matters most!
5 // As a trend trader, it's likely that 20% of your trades result in 80% of your profits so focus on riding winners & cutting losers.

You may have an expectancy of 40% winning trades but it's likely that 80%+ of your year-end profits come from > 20% of your successful trades.
6 // In poker, 20 percent of the players will walk away with at least 80 percent of the stakes.

In retail, 20 percent of the sales staff will make more than 80 percent of the dollar value of sales.
7 // Studies consistently show that 20 percent of customers lead to more than 80 percent of profits for any particular firm.

More than 80 percent of scientific breakthroughs come from fewer than 20 percent of scientists.
8 // Crime statistics repeatedly show that about 20 percent of thieves make off with 80 percent of the loot.

In horse racing, 80% of races are won by just 20% of jockeys.
9 // The 80/20 rule argues that 20% of the input creates 80% of the output. Inputs & outputs aren’t the same thing, & therefore can’t be made into the same pie chart. The 80/20 Rule could just as easily been called The 55/3 Rule, if 55% of the results were created by 3% of inputs
10 // The 80/20 Principle: The Secret to Achieving More with Less Paperback - by Richard Koch

amazon.com/gp/product/038…

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More from @cperruna

1 Apr
THREAD | 15 Stocks I'm Watching

Sorted by Average Sales % Change Past 4 Qtrs

$FLGT
$PTON
$APPS
$MRVI
$FVRR
$TWST
$DMTK
$CHWY
$MGNI
$U
$NVTA
$TXG
$UPST
$ABNB
$CRSP

Data & charts via @marketsmith
1 / $FLGT - $99.98, 47% off the all-time high set back in February. Sales have increased 1,196%, 883% & 105% the past three qtrs and EPS are positive.

Building a range between $80 and $120.

Institutional sponsorship is up 35% past qtr.

Interested.

Chart: @MarketSmith
2 / $PTON - 112.42, down 34% from highs but building a base at the 200d ma.

Sales up 128%, 232% and 172% the last 3 qtrs. How well can sales hold up post COVID?

Institutional sponsorship went from 254 to 855 past 4 qtrs.

One to grab if this base holds.

Chart: @MarketSmith
Read 16 tweets
29 Mar
Three 2021 buys not going so well:

$CMLF -$13.67, down 16% on a 4.6% position.
Bought 3/25 at $19.10 on 2/26 & $13.45 (cost basis $16.28)

$SKLZ - $18.00, down 42.7% on a 1.7% position.
Bought 3/3 at $31.45

$IPOE - $16.44, down 13.5% on a 2.2% position
Bought 3/15 at $19.01
$CMLF buy tweet:

Holding and feel positive on potential.

$SKLZ buy tweet:

Holding, has been a mistake so far (based on price action alone). I do see a comeback but you never know.

Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
12 Must Read Success & Motivational Books

"Vision without action is merely a dream.
Action without vision just passes the time.
Vision with action can change the world."
- Barker

"Do not "tell" the world what you can do, "show it."
- Hill

The key to these books is “ACTION”!
1 // Think & Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill

amazon.com/gp/product/193…
2 // The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
@paulocoelho

amazon.com/gp/product/006…
Read 13 tweets
25 Mar
THREAD // My 2021 stock sales & cash raise:

Cash was 5.2% end of Jan, 9.1% end of Feb & rest raised in March per below real time tweets.

Now 40.4% cash.

Jan: $GRWG

Feb: $MDB $TTD

Mar: $CRM $CGC $OKTA $HVBTF $TCEHY $CRWD $ARKG

Half sold March 9th: $PINS $SQ $ROKU
$GRWG sold Jan 28th for 574% gain (call options)

Read 12 tweets
20 Mar
The last time we saw Cathie Wood buy a stock w/ such conviction, it was $TSLA, when in the dumps.

Today, that stock is $TDOC

I own it as one of my largest positions so I have confirmation bias.

With that said, I love to see the conviction. She's a lot better at this than me.
Cathie Wood 1 of 2:
Cathie Wood 2 of 2:
Read 5 tweets
16 Mar
THREAD // Why I am Growing Bullish on Ethereum

#Ethereum is a general-purpose blockchain.

A blockchain is a decentralized network of computers that collectively maintain a ledger and prevents tampering outside the rules.

Via @VitalikButerin @naval @tferriss & @podcastnotes
2 //

Ethereum’s defining feature is unstoppable applications that run & doesn’t trust or rely on any single entity to operate.

No one, including the creator, can stop an application running on Ethereum.

Smart contracts are at the core of the ETH blockchain.
3 //

Ethereum applications allow composability. That is, they can be built on top of each other like Lego blocks.

Applications include decentralized domain name system, autonomous organizations, prediction, and financial markets, and non-fungible tokens.
Read 12 tweets

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