Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD ON VARIANTS:
Some key bits from latest PHE report on Covid variants currently under surveillance in England.

TLDR: v low levels of everything apart from our Kent strain (B117) but S. African & Brazilian strains spreading.

Full report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 1/10

Variants with the "Eek" mutation (E484K) are of particular concern since this mutation is thought to help covid evade antibodies so that it can more easily infect people who have had covid already or (potentially) the vaccine.

bmj.com/content/372/bm… 2/10

Two variants with this mutation (the Bristol strain which is our Kent variant+E484K, and the Brazilian P2) are *not* spreading, but four variants with this mutation *are*. 3/10

Although the estimates for B1525 & B11318 look like they are decreasing, geographically both look to be stable or increasing in London and Yorkshire but contained elsewhere. (Most recent dates might well be underestimates)

Both SA (B1351) & Brazil (P1) are mainly in London. 4/10

Looking by *mutation* rather than strain, we can see there are three mutations gaining ground - most prominent is the E484K (Eek) mutation.

L452R is present in the new Indian strain which seems to be spreading fast there: bbc.co.uk/news/world-asi… 5/10

So, overall, some key & concerning mutations are gaining ground in England. They are still a *very* small proportion of overall cases, but, especially as we open up, they could still become dominant.

eg our Kent strain went from 0.3% to 93% of cases in Denmark in 4 months. 6/10

Pfizer seems to work very well against Brazil & SA strains itv.com/news/2021-04-0…

Moderna is very similar to Pfizer and so should have similar efficacy (it's approved and arrives here later this month). 7/10

AZ vax works less well against S. African strain for preventing mild illness - but the hope & expectation is that it would still protect against severe illness & death.

(AZ is brilliant against our dominant Kent strain - so if offered take it!) 8/10

metro.co.uk/2021/03/27/vac…

Novovax vaccine - hopefully approved in UK soonish - is very effective against our Kent strain but less effective against S African. BUT it does seem good at preventing severe disease against S. African strain (also raising hopes that AZ will be too). ir.novavax.com/news-releases/… 9/10

Worry is if these strains keep spreading they might mutate further to become better at evading vaccines (bad).

So we need v. rapid vax, excellent sequencing & contact tracing, & careful opening! We DON'T want lots of spread!

Variant numbers still low -> we can do this! /END