PH daily (+) rate is in an uptrend since trough in Feb 11, 2021 at 5.2882%. Expanded national testing is needed. The 7-day average positives hitting 9651.71. Testing should be >= 200k heads/day.
NCR Daily (+) Rate: 26.1797%.
NCR (+) rate is trending up since last trough in Jan 25 at 3.0199%. The spread is accelerating. NCR should be testing >=130k heads to catch up on the spread of COVID.
No reports from BARMM labs since April 1, 2021. Data submission problematic in the region. From Mar 25-31, the weekly (+) rate was 4.90%. Barely below 5%. March 31 had a shocking 16.4557% daily (+) rate out of 70 individuals.
CAR daily (+) rate is at 34.1939%. Doubled from last week. Further expanded testing and tracing needed. Testing at least >=8.5k heads/day.
Caraga drifted above 5% and should be testing at least 500 heads/day.
Ilocos daily (+) rate breaks >5% over the past 7 days. Needs to be testing at least 2,380 heads/day
Cagayan Valley daily positive rate at 26.8116% and continuing to increase. This means that testing and detection should expand further. Testing >=5.5k heads/day recommended.
Region III daily positive at 25.5066% and is trending up since trough last Feb 14, 2021 at 3.2298%. The region needs to be more aggressive and expansive in its testing with >= 18k heads/day.
Region IV-A daily positive at 25.1724% and has skyrocketed. More consistent detection in the region is needed. Testing should be >=14.5k heads/day.
MIMAROPA still not consistent in testing; the problem of an archipelagic region with limited testing resources. Its weekly (+) rate from Mar 28 - Apr 3 is at 13.1387%. Testing >=50 heads/day based on contact tracing recommended.
Zamboanga Peninsula hovering close but up and down 5% daily positive. Its weekly (+) rate from Mar 28 - Apr 3 is at 5.9553%. Testing >=480 heads/day based on contact tracing recommended.
Bicol with daily (+) rate skyrockets to 31.7881%. Aggressive and expanded testing still needed. Testing >750 heads/day by contact tracing recommended.
Western Visayas daily (+) rate broke >5% recently. Testing at least 2,500 heads/day recommended.
Central Visayas daily positive rate starting to drop but still at 7.0127%. Testing >=5.2k heads/day recommended.
Eastern Visayas daily positive is staying above 5% and now at 14.7887%. More testing needed. Testing campaign needs to be consistent and break peak >=800 heads/day.
Northern Mindanao positivity broke >5%. Need to strengthen detection capabilities. Testing/day should be >= 1k heads/day.
Davao Region daily positive at 7.7103%. Need to go >= 1.3k heads/day consistently.
Region XII needs to consistently increase their testing. Daily positive rate still >5%. It should continue to break beyond the peak of 658 heads/day achieved last Jan 21.
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I am seeing some signs of slowing, but not yet definitive.
Would 8k-10k cases be our new typical number of cases?
The end of the pandemic is far from sight.
The predicted no. of new reported cases for April 6, 2021 is 9,997 (90% CI: 6,926 -- 13,811).
The methods are based on epiforecasts.io/covid/methods.…, using the most recent 180 days of data available as of March 28, 2021, and adjusted to DOH reporting delays.
Onset of Symptoms to Specimen Collection = 4.1765 days
Specimen Collection to Result Release = 2.7296 days
Result Release to Official Confirmation = 6.3509 days
Sum of Three = 13.2570 days
Recovery to DOH Report of Recovery = 11.6584 days
(Note: only 1/3 of recoveries have date of recovery)
Death to DOH Report of Death = 40.2771 days
With much of the delays, recent cohorts of confirmed patients from March to present have longer delays from onset of symptoms to specimen collection. This has been the increasing contributor of delays. These are often patient/lab specific issues.
The gap is large. There gap trend is crawling on incline. Now holding the 86k-97k range.
Biased Estimate of Validation Rate, Apr 4 = 12.7159%
Biased Estimate of % Confirmed, Apr 3 = 90.0401%
Validation rate has increased, but cases still grow. % Confirmed touches the 90% range.
14-day Attack Rate, Apr 4 = 118.905 new cases/100,000 heads for the past 14 days.
Highest ever attack rate. Attack rate has started trending up from trough at 20.976 last Feb 10, 2021. Highest ever. And it does not seem to stop increasing.