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Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
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5 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Apr 3 Data As of Apr 4 DOH data drop:

Confirmed = 784,023
Individuals Tested Positive = 870,749

Gap = 86,726

The gap is large. There gap trend is crawling on incline. Now holding the 86k-97k range.
Biased Estimate of Validation Rate, Apr 4 = 12.7159%
Biased Estimate of % Confirmed, Apr 3 = 90.0401%

Validation rate has increased, but cases still grow. % Confirmed touches the 90% range.
14-day Attack Rate, Apr 4 = 118.905 new cases/100,000 heads for the past 14 days.

Highest ever attack rate. Attack rate has started trending up from trough at 20.976 last Feb 10, 2021. Highest ever. And it does not seem to stop increasing.
Google Sheets with Definition: drive.google.com/file/d/11R0xHB…

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More from @PJACaytonPhD

Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
5 Apr
Note:
> 8 cases purged
> 8 recovs purged/changed status

Daily % Change & Crude Days-to-Double
Conf= 1.2689%, 145 days
Recov= 0.0161%, 163 days
Deaths= 0.0379%, 167 days

Net increase in active = 8,200

Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
I am seeing some signs of slowing, but not yet definitive.

Would 8k-10k cases be our new typical number of cases?

The end of the pandemic is far from sight.
The predicted no. of new reported cases for April 6, 2021 is 9,997 (90% CI: 6,926 -- 13,811).

The methods are based on epiforecasts.io/covid/methods.…, using the most recent 180 days of data available as of March 28, 2021, and adjusted to DOH reporting delays.
Read 5 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
5 Apr
(An Email to my Students, April 5, 2021)

Hi, dear student,

I hope you are doing well and staying safe.

This week has not been kind to fragile hearts and I understand what you are feeling as I feel it, too.
We are not in a good place and our thoughts may be clouded with the situation we all are in this country.

I want you to know that you are loved and someone thinks of your safety and health.
I have decided, ahead of administrators and university leaders, that we will not have class this week.

No exercises will be posted until the haze settles.

When you feel safe and ready, you can continue with the readings. No need to haste.
Read 4 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
5 Apr
Average Delays of DOH Data, as of April 4, 2021:

Onset of Symptoms to Specimen Collection = 4.1765 days
Specimen Collection to Result Release = 2.7296 days
Result Release to Official Confirmation = 6.3509 days
Sum of Three = 13.2570 days
Recovery to DOH Report of Recovery = 11.6584 days
(Note: only 1/3 of recoveries have date of recovery)
Death to DOH Report of Death = 40.2771 days

Data Source: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
With much of the delays, recent cohorts of confirmed patients from March to present have longer delays from onset of symptoms to specimen collection. This has been the increasing contributor of delays. These are often patient/lab specific issues.
Read 5 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
5 Apr
Compendium of Philippine COVID-19 Statistics
As of April 4, 2021
Volume I: Island Groups, Regions, and Provinces

drive.google.com/file/d/1HnAXLU…
PROTEST OF PETER CAYTON:

BRING BACK #DATEREPREM, @DOHgovph!

IT IS NOT REDUNDANT!

SEE FOR YOURSELF WHAT SUCH VARIABLE CAN DO TO HELP THE PEOPLE!

BEST IF YOU ARE DOING THIS, NOT US.

YOU ARE THE AGENCY FOR THIS!
BE ACCOUNTABLE TO THE FILIPINO PEOPLE AND SHOW WHEN YOU INDICATED THESE CASES AS RECOVERED ON THE DATA!

WHERE ARE THE CASES WITH DATE OF ONSET LAST FEBRUARY 2020?

EXPLAIN YOURSELF, @DOHgovph!
Read 18 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
5 Apr
Regional Statistics on COVID-19 Testing
Most Recent Data as of April 3, 2020

drive.google.com/file/d/1vXQfr3…
PH Daily Positive (+) Rate: 23.1298%

PH daily (+) rate is in an uptrend since trough in Feb 11, 2021 at 5.2882%. Expanded national testing is needed. The 7-day average positives hitting 9651.71. Testing should be >= 200k heads/day.
NCR Daily (+) Rate: 26.1797%.

NCR (+) rate is trending up since last trough in Jan 25 at 3.0199%. The spread is accelerating. NCR should be testing >=130k heads to catch up on the spread of COVID.
Read 15 tweets
Peter Cayton, the Stats Guy Profile picture
5 Apr
Statistics on COVID-19 Dedicated Hospital Capacity,
Most Recent Data as of April 3, 2021
Volume I: Regions and Provinces

drive.google.com/file/d/1HTrPNS…
Provinces with High ICU Bed Utilization Rate (>=70%)
[1] "BATAAN"
[2] "BENGUET"
[3] "BULACAN"
[4] "ISABELA"
[5] "LAGUNA"
[6] "METRO MANILA"
[7] "MOUNTAIN PROVINCE" (100%)
[8] "NUEVA VIZCAYA"
[9] "PAMPANGA"
[10] "QUEZON"
[11] "RIZAL" (100%)
[12] "TARLAC"
Provinces with High Isolation Bed Utilization Rate (>=70%)
[1] "APAYAO"
[2] "AURORA"
[3] "BENGUET"
[4] "IFUGAO" (100%)
[5] "ISABELA"
[6] "METRO MANILA"
[7] "MOUNTAIN PROVINCE"
[8] "QUIRINO"
[9] "RIZAL"
Read 5 tweets

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