CONSUME FECAL MATTER AND TAKE A DOSE OF GONADAL DISCHARGE!
PH Rt:
Conf'n Date (Apr04)
1.1799, with 95% interval (1.1714, 1.1884)
Sufficient Evidence for Increasing COVID-19 transmission
Est'd Date of Onset (Mar26)
1.2383, 95% Interval (1.2287, 1.2479)
Sufficient Evidence for Increasing COVID-19 transmission
PH Case Fatality Rate: 1.69%, declining since trough last Feb 25, 2021 at 2.15%
PH Recovery Rate: 81.27%, declining since trough last Feb 21, 2021 at 93.15%
Regs w/ Sufficient Evidence for Increasing Transmission based on Confirmation Date Rt:
BARMM
NCR
CAR
Reg I
Reg II
Reg III
Reg IV-A
Reg IV-B
Reg V
Reg VI
Reg VIII
Reg IX
Reg XII
Reg XIII
Regs w/ Inconclusive Evidence on Transmission based on Confirmation Date Rt, but Rt > 1:
Reg XI
Regs w/ Inconclusive Evidence on Transmission based on Confirmation Date Rt, but Rt < 1:
Reg X
Regs w/ Sufficient Evidence for Declining Transmission based on Confirmation Date Rt:
Reg VII (Day 17)
Statistics per province, municipality, and city are available in endcov.ph/statistics
Provs w/ Sufficient Evidence for Increasing COVID-19 Transmission, based on Confirmation Date, Ordered from Least to Most Severe, as of Apr 04, 2021
[1] "BULACAN"
[2] "METRO MANILA"
[3] "RIZAL"
[4] "QUEZON"
[5] "LEYTE"
[6] "CAVITE"
[7] "ISABELA"
[8] "CAGAYAN"
Provs w/ Sufficient Evidence for Increasing COVID-19 Transmission, based on Estimated Onset Date, Ordered from Least to Most Severe, as of Mar 26, 2021
[1] "BENGUET"
[2] "QUIRINO"
[3] "ISABELA"
[4] "NEGROS OCCIDENTAL"
[5] "MISAMIS ORIENTAL"
[6] "ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR"
I am seeing some signs of slowing, but not yet definitive.
Would 8k-10k cases be our new typical number of cases?
The end of the pandemic is far from sight.
The predicted no. of new reported cases for April 6, 2021 is 9,997 (90% CI: 6,926 -- 13,811).
The methods are based on epiforecasts.io/covid/methods.…, using the most recent 180 days of data available as of March 28, 2021, and adjusted to DOH reporting delays.
Onset of Symptoms to Specimen Collection = 4.1765 days
Specimen Collection to Result Release = 2.7296 days
Result Release to Official Confirmation = 6.3509 days
Sum of Three = 13.2570 days
Recovery to DOH Report of Recovery = 11.6584 days
(Note: only 1/3 of recoveries have date of recovery)
Death to DOH Report of Death = 40.2771 days
With much of the delays, recent cohorts of confirmed patients from March to present have longer delays from onset of symptoms to specimen collection. This has been the increasing contributor of delays. These are often patient/lab specific issues.
The gap is large. There gap trend is crawling on incline. Now holding the 86k-97k range.
Biased Estimate of Validation Rate, Apr 4 = 12.7159%
Biased Estimate of % Confirmed, Apr 3 = 90.0401%
Validation rate has increased, but cases still grow. % Confirmed touches the 90% range.
14-day Attack Rate, Apr 4 = 118.905 new cases/100,000 heads for the past 14 days.
Highest ever attack rate. Attack rate has started trending up from trough at 20.976 last Feb 10, 2021. Highest ever. And it does not seem to stop increasing.
PH daily (+) rate is in an uptrend since trough in Feb 11, 2021 at 5.2882%. Expanded national testing is needed. The 7-day average positives hitting 9651.71. Testing should be >= 200k heads/day.
NCR Daily (+) Rate: 26.1797%.
NCR (+) rate is trending up since last trough in Jan 25 at 3.0199%. The spread is accelerating. NCR should be testing >=130k heads to catch up on the spread of COVID.