A consistent pattern with Brexit disruption is large, established and well capitalised players being able to roll with the punches while smaller operators get knocked out.
1️⃣ Bigger firms have economies of scale on everything from paperwork to shipping.
2⃣ Bigger firms less likely to send mixed groupage consignments of lots of different things (customs nightmare).
3️⃣ Bigger firms have on house expertise, and/or can more easily afford bespoke external experts.
4⃣ Bigger firms are more able to shape policy, enjoying better formal access (consultations), semi-formal access (lobbying), and informal access (kids at same school as Ministers).
5⃣ Bigger firms have more resources to throw at preparations, and more head space to consider long term abstract risks like government policy change.
6⃣ Bigger firms are in a stronger position to negotiate favorable rates & terms with suppliers and vendors, to pass on the pain.
7️⃣ Bigger firms have more capital reserves and can absorb short and even medium term losses, allowing them to continue to serve customers while they adjust their operations.
8️⃣ Bigger firms were more likely to have already been trading beyond Europe and thus have experience.
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1/ If you missed the stream tonight, the full recording of @GeorgeMRiddell explaining Brexit and services trade is now available here: twitch.tv/videos/9774989…
It's pretty long though, so I've clipped answers to some of the bigger questions in this thread.👇
2/ What ARE financial services and how are they traded?
On the one hand, experts warned for years about the impact of Brexit red tape on British businesses.
On the other, I'm not sure ten trade nerds tweeting their hearts out in their spare time is the optimal way to deliver critical business information to a country of 65 million.
Probably the most followed pure customs expert in the discussion is @AnnaJerzewska. She's followed by 28,000 people.
If every single one of those people were a business owner trading with the EU (they're not), that's still less than 20% of the UK businesses that do so.
When Anna (or @SamuelMarcLowe, or @DavidHenigUK or @AllieRenison etc.) get invited to do TV or Radio, they generally get under 10 minutes, most of which is spent reacting to whatever insane thing is the Westminster Talking Point Du Jour.
In an alternate universe where the UK is lagging badly in vaccines and a Welsh factory is insisting on exporting them to the EU to honor some fine point of contract law, the UK papers would be calling for immediate nationalization of all pharma and the invasion of Belgium.
I think vaccine nationalism is terrible, and I hope the EU doesn't do (more of) what is being suggested they might. I think it's self-defeating, parochial and more likely to make things worse than better...
... but I don't pretend not to understand the political incentives.
All politics is local and all politics is at least a little bit shitty.
Every time foreign aid is in the news anywhere there are 10 headlines about how we should be 'spending that money at home'.
And that's with money, which the government can literally print. This is vaccines.
2/ Salami tactics is where, when confronted with a really powerful but binary deterrent (like nuclear weapons or tearing up the Protocol and building a border), you achieve your goals bit by bit, never taking any one specific step so dramatic it justifies that deterrent's use.
3/ This is to an extent the situation the EU finds itself on the receiving end of with regard to Northern Ireland.
As part of the WA Boris Johnson agreed to put a goods border inside his own territory thus preserving the Single Market... while promising his own side he didn't.
2/ Whatever one thinks of the Johnson Cabinet, it's clearly not lacking in people willing to criticize the EU on the front page of the Telegraph.
Why not tag in literally anyone else? I'm sure JRM has some thoughts to share, very possibly in Latin.
3/ The same message delivered by another senior figure at least leaves Frost SOME distance.
"Yes I can appreciate you didn't like reading that but you must understand tensions are high and this is a sensitive matter. Let's find some common ground and lower the temperature."