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Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
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6 Apr, 12 tweets, 4 min read
1/ If you missed the stream tonight, the full recording of @GeorgeMRiddell explaining Brexit and services trade is now available here: twitch.tv/videos/9774989…

It's pretty long though, so I've clipped answers to some of the bigger questions in this thread.👇
2/ What ARE financial services and how are they traded?

twitch.tv/videos/9777439…
3/ Why is the City of London good at them, and why do foreign clients want to buy them from the UK?

twitch.tv/videos/9777438…
4/ What do services regulators actually do, and what are they trying to prevent?

twitch.tv/videos/9777439…
5/ What is the EU Single Market when it comes to services, and what did it mean for UK firms?

twitch.tv/videos/9777438…
6/ What's been the impact of Brexit on UK services firms?

twitch.tv/videos/9777439…
7/ What are the decisions the EU has had to, and continues to have to make with regard to UK services firms?

twitch.tv/videos/9777439…
8/ What do the terms "Passporting" and "Equivalence" mean, and will getting equivalence (not likely) mean UK firms have the same access as they did in the Single Market?

twitch.tv/videos/9777438…
9/ Are there any benefits or potential benefits from Brexit for the City?

twitch.tv/videos/9777438…
10/ Does gravity apply to services the way it does to goods?

twitch.tv/videos/9777438…
11/ Was Brexit actually motivated by an attempt to forestall or get out of EU anti money-laundering or anti-tax evasion rules?

Spoiler: No.

twitch.tv/videos/9777438…
12/ Going forward, what can the UK government usefully do to help the sector bounce back and grow into the future?

twitch.tv/videos/9777439…

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More from @DmitryOpines

Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
5 Apr
A consistent pattern with Brexit disruption is large, established and well capitalised players being able to roll with the punches while smaller operators get knocked out.

Here, it's antiques. 👇
Quick explanation of why:

1️⃣ Bigger firms have economies of scale on everything from paperwork to shipping.

2⃣ Bigger firms less likely to send mixed groupage consignments of lots of different things (customs nightmare).
3️⃣ Bigger firms have on house expertise, and/or can more easily afford bespoke external experts.

4⃣ Bigger firms are more able to shape policy, enjoying better formal access (consultations), semi-formal access (lobbying), and informal access (kids at same school as Ministers).
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
27 Mar
By very little popular demand, I'll be doing my very first public interactive mini-lecture here 👇 at 19:30 CET tonight.

For this one, I'm gonna focus on how to target your messaging, whether in a negotiation, a cover letter, or as a freelancer.

twitch.tv/dmitryopines
FAQ

Q: "What is Twitch?"

A: It's a streaming site that also lets users interact with presenters by chatting with them or tipping them.

Q: "Why are you using it?"

A: Because I want to be able to interact and answer questions in real time. Also, I'm a massive nerd.
Q: "How much will this cost?"

A: "It's free, but you're welcome to tip if you find it useful. I'll be donating any tips to a good cause."

Q: "I'm not around then, will you release a recording?"

A: "Yup, I'll do my best to get a Youtube version up ASAP."
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
23 Mar
On the one hand, experts warned for years about the impact of Brexit red tape on British businesses.

On the other, I'm not sure ten trade nerds tweeting their hearts out in their spare time is the optimal way to deliver critical business information to a country of 65 million.
Probably the most followed pure customs expert in the discussion is @AnnaJerzewska. She's followed by 28,000 people.

If every single one of those people were a business owner trading with the EU (they're not), that's still less than 20% of the UK businesses that do so.
When Anna (or @SamuelMarcLowe, or @DavidHenigUK or @AllieRenison etc.) get invited to do TV or Radio, they generally get under 10 minutes, most of which is spent reacting to whatever insane thing is the Westminster Talking Point Du Jour.
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
22 Mar
In an alternate universe where the UK is lagging badly in vaccines and a Welsh factory is insisting on exporting them to the EU to honor some fine point of contract law, the UK papers would be calling for immediate nationalization of all pharma and the invasion of Belgium.
I think vaccine nationalism is terrible, and I hope the EU doesn't do (more of) what is being suggested they might. I think it's self-defeating, parochial and more likely to make things worse than better...

... but I don't pretend not to understand the political incentives.
All politics is local and all politics is at least a little bit shitty.

Every time foreign aid is in the news anywhere there are 10 headlines about how we should be 'spending that money at home'.

And that's with money, which the government can literally print. This is vaccines.
Read 4 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
15 Mar
1/ Legal action, Northern Ireland Protocol, the Single Market and salami tactics.

In "Yes, Prime Minister" the effectiveness of the nuclear deterrent is challenged through the 'salami' hypothetical.

The EU faces a similar dilemma on the Protocol.

2/ Salami tactics is where, when confronted with a really powerful but binary deterrent (like nuclear weapons or tearing up the Protocol and building a border), you achieve your goals bit by bit, never taking any one specific step so dramatic it justifies that deterrent's use.
3/ This is to an extent the situation the EU finds itself on the receiving end of with regard to Northern Ireland.

As part of the WA Boris Johnson agreed to put a goods border inside his own territory thus preserving the Single Market... while promising his own side he didn't.
Read 10 tweets
Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
7 Mar
1/ The UK government clearly feels it needs to deliver some tough messages to Brussels (and I suspect to be seen doing so by UK domestic audiences).

What baffles is why it keeps choosing as the messenger the one person it needs to have good, collaborative relations with the EU.
2/ Whatever one thinks of the Johnson Cabinet, it's clearly not lacking in people willing to criticize the EU on the front page of the Telegraph.

Why not tag in literally anyone else? I'm sure JRM has some thoughts to share, very possibly in Latin.
3/ The same message delivered by another senior figure at least leaves Frost SOME distance.

"Yes I can appreciate you didn't like reading that but you must understand tensions are high and this is a sensitive matter. Let's find some common ground and lower the temperature."
Read 5 tweets

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