1/n Update on my home-town 'interesting' SARS-Cov-2 'non-situation'. If you haven't read the thread I am citing, read that one first because this is an update on that.
2/n As I stated there I have been tracking the disease there because my parents and my grandparents live there. So, I have invested interest into understanding the situation.
3/n I also know the infectious disease expert in charge there too and I discussed with her the strategy back in August after they detected their first 50 cases and we did a estimation on the sizing of the hospital ICU care necessary and final death toll.
4/n Our estimation back then was that the hospital care was going to be enough AND that the deaths would be depending on the strategy they allow them to follow in the range of 120 to 180 deaths. For a 150K city, not bad.
5/n Yesterday I got a call from mom and she told me that there had been already 2 days of ZERO 'detected' cases and when they were, it was usually a few cases all typically in the same household. So obviously I called to confirm that.
6/n The interesting thing though is I obviously follow it by remote control using the state provided data. I seen the data not moving much, but then I say, what the hell... show me the last 10 days of deaths. SURPRISE!!!
7/n It's been almost a month without any death AND a month with less than 5 deaths. So where does that leave us? Well that put my home town with 156 into the 104 deaths per 100K inhabitants. And where did I hear that number before?
8/n Ouuuhhh yes, I remember a very old tweet where someone has made an estimation with absolutely NO data based only on growth dynamics comparison with H1N1 revised IFR.
9/n Why did that happen? By the time this city got their first case they had like 3 months of government intervention where they weren't even able to go to walk. People was fed up, so the spread run rampant. In 3 months they got the brunt of it. By November it was almost done.
10/n But then on December the B1.1.7 variant was already gaining prevalence in Argentina. That would translate into a new smaller wave that went through late December to February and added roughly 25 more deaths. That is compatible with 10% increase in HIT with less isolation.
11/n As noted by my research associate and modeling mastermind @LDjaparidze the expected scenario for my home-town was 166 deaths. Not bad for some 'non-epidemiologists'
12/n All in all, if you are in Argentina and want to feel safe; you know where you can go. But most importantly, this gives a baseline of what would have happen if we haven't done stupid.

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More from @federicolois

19 Mar
@martinmoline @Gus_Noriega @nytimes 1/n Vamos a hacer una cosa, el que no entiende de ciencia te va contar algo que obviamente vos ya sabes, pero decime donde me estoy equivocando.
@martinmoline @Gus_Noriega @nytimes 2/n Ritter et al. [1975] “the wearing of a surgical face mask had no effect upon the overall operating room environmental contamination.” Oops. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1157412/
@martinmoline @Gus_Noriega @nytimes 3/n Ha’eri and Wiley [1980] le pusieron microesferas de albumina al interior de las máscaras (source control) y las buscaron en las heridas luego de 20 operationes. “Particle contamination of the wound was demonstrated in all experiments.” Mhhh. europepmc.org/article/med/73…
Read 14 tweets
16 Mar
1/n Probably this is not too well known, I know I didn't though @andrey_akinshin has a blog post about it. If your software uses a lot of Stopwatch [QueryPerformanceCounter] and we do for showing a lot of detailed measurements to our users, there are a few gotchas. That is 30%.
2/n That measurement for me was strange, its like: How on earth could I miss 30% of the runtime cost just calling the Stopwatch Start/Stop on a core routine? It's the kind of thing that just don't escape the WTF?!?! label.
3/n I hypothesize, the only reason how that can happen is because we are somehow transitioning into kernel space. It didn't add up, at all. And when I mentioned @ayende though similarly to me.
Read 7 tweets
10 Mar
How better the world would be if people would exercise some brain activity before activating the muscles to hit keyboard keys at pseudo random. The masks ninjas clearly have absolutely no advantage.
And that is IF I would look away from evidence. It is highly probable that most influenza strains comes from... GUESS WHERE!!!! Asia, and I am pretty sure that is not a shock to anyone. A simple google search: "where does influenza comes from" suffices

Obviously a young and inquiring mind like @jamesbleekerPL would notice also that massive (no other word would suffice) influenza on 2019... Let me guess... What did happen at the end of 2019... Anyone said 13 different SARS-Cov-2 sequences by December??? independent.co.uk/news/world/asi…
Read 4 tweets
9 Mar
Let's play a game shall we? I will post mobility charts from countries. Let's see if you can pin down which one is which.
What is the location I posted.
This one is gonna be easy.
Read 14 tweets
7 Mar
I live in a country that has mandated masks even in outdoors (where I don't use it, period). I vote with my wallet, BUT, for maximum civil disobedience this is my mask for when I have no choice (shops, kids school, etc). It reads: "Doesn't filter aerosols. Doesn't work for CV19" Image
For maximum irony, this is a triple layer, high quality, medical grade mask (even though ear loop design is quite crappy IMHO), next step: N95 (but they are a pain to wear). So when anyone says something I tell: "Come on? Haven't you read the evidence?" and then I explain.
Then I point them to the hilarious European CDC study and explain the how 19 out of 20 are just bad evidence and the only one that its actually good, is compatible with higher infection rates. Details here:
Read 5 tweets
1 Mar
1/ Because by judging from other countries (mine for example) that is completely true. Just took my kid to primary school, all parents packed together (with their 'masks on' of course). Who would have known? Right?
2/ But let's make it fun. Every thread is better with a poll. Do people use masks properly in your city? Keep distance, don't touch it, over the nose... you know the usual.
3/ That's why I wrote this small rant a few weeks ago. Because using PPE in the wrong way is worse than not use it at all.
Read 15 tweets

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