This will be a long one

I am going to answer @TomCottonAR argument about "under-incarceration," not because I have any illusion of changing his mind but because I want everyone to understand why he and the "tough on crime" crowd are wrong about crime and incarceration
1. Crime rates

Crime is down, violent crime is down, but homicides and domestic violence have spiked during #COVID19

Any claim this is the result of particular reforms doesn't make sense because the rates have increased uniformly across jurisdictions

There are a lot of alternative explanations

a) The pandemic - Strain, stress, correlated unemployment, (maybe) lethal Domestic Violence under lockdown conditions as @Abt_Thomas put it:

b) Police illegitimacy - fter George Floyd’s murder there was a decrease in public trust in police and policing...As @Abt_Thomas put it:

Gun sales: 19.2 million more guns were sold between January and June than during the same period in 2019. As Phillip Cook put it:

2. Incarceration doesn't solve crime

Mr. Cotton assumes that more enforcement and incarceration is a solution, but it is not

a) Even accounting for incapacitation, incarceration causes more crime than it solves
b) Increased enforcement isn't the answer either, in fact the federal government tried to respond to the increase in homicides last year with "Operation Legend" - the result was an increase in incarceration BUT NOT A DECREASE IN HOMICIDES or CRIME

c) Also, and this is important, believe it or not, the police are not particularly good at solving crimes....especially crimes like the one Cotton is upset about
3. We most assuredly don't have an under-incarceration problem....

We are the most over-incarcerated country on the face of planet earth, we incarcerate more people - and for longer time - than ANYONE and far more than most combinations of countries.
4. We know what works:

a) Structural reform of the systems that generate insecurity and crime

As Adam Gelb put it

b) Criminal justice reform works, in 34 states reform and declines in crime and recidivism worked hand-in-hand

c) we know homicide reduction programs work, when they are actually funded....when their funding gets cut, homicides increase

And let us not forget, what Mr. Cotton is actually asking for is to double down on a system that incarcerates black and brown people at a level way disparate to their proportion in the population

5. Other bad arguments

a) The spike is not because of progressive prosecutors, you can see plenty of evidence of this on the feed of @JohnFPfaff
b) The spike is not because of bail reform

I answered this above but crime and recidivism decreased in New Jersey, Philadelphia, Kentucky, DC, and many other places after Bail Reform

The New York arguments are also fraudulent

We also need a lot better from the press on this issue

Anyway, the whole assumption that if crime increases that incarceration is the answer is deeply problematic and counterproductive.....we have to stop doubling down on long-failed solutions

I have zero illusion that Tom Cotton or Tucker Carlson will stop saying these deeply troubling things, that is how they keep the outrage machine rolling.

But it is important that all of us out here in the world outside of their political bubble understand why they are wrong


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More from @JoshuaBHoe

6 Apr
I will repeat for any Governors wondering if they should vaccinate the people inside their prisons

Since Michigan started vaccinating prisoners deaths have dropped to almost zero and the step-down units are down by almost 1000 folks

It is good policy
And I think it is only fair to thank @GovWhitmer for accelerating vaccinations for incarcerated folks by placing incarcerated people over 65 in Phase One C and moving to the rest of the population soon after

Yes, I wish it would have happened earlier, but very glad it happened
A lot of us worked hard to move her on vaccinations after we failed to move many public-health commutations....but many Governors did not move and there are still states with zero vaccinations, have to give credit when due and this saved lives
Read 4 tweets
5 Apr
Doctors I trust more than Dr. Drew:

* Dimento
* Zhivago
* Doolittle (yes, even the Robert Downy Jr. version)
* Buckaroo Banzai
* Evil
* McCoy
* Caligari
* Van Helsing

Dude used to televise recovery......
I mean, he took people who had an entirely unhealthy relationship with fame and used that to get them on a television show about their own recovery.....which people consumed as entertainment......so yeah....
He aired something incredibly private and personal and built on trust (recovery) by using people who were in crisis but wanted a shot at resuscitating their careers badly enough to put their own recovery on live television
Read 4 tweets
21 Mar
I read a story this morning where the author strongly implied that President Biden tripping on stairs, misstating that VP Harris was President, and forgetting one of the names of his cabinet members in the moment was evidence of dementia

No medical expert quoted...shameful
We have moved to an era where we are weaponizing common gaffes as mental illness and calling it news....

That is where we are now....
Every single one of us stumbles, we all trip over words sometimes (and Biden is a stutterer), and I couldn't tell you the names of half of the cabinet....and you couldn't either.

Just stop being absurd, report on actual news
Read 4 tweets
21 Mar
I remember a place called the "transportation center" where we were kept in kennels (like for dogs but taller), still cuffed, and if you needed to urinate, you had to do it a pitcher in front of everyone and still cuffed...so many ways incarcerated people are treated like animals
And I am sure anyone who has ever been arrested remembers the casual barbarity of jail holding cells, where they pack tons of people in a small room, with one toilet at the end (and the toilet is rarely cleaned) in full few of everyone and where violence is normal
Or, how when you first get processed into prison you are stripped and inspected....or how you are strip searched entering and leaving the visitation room every time...
Read 20 tweets
20 Mar
I did not care when Trump stumbled, I did not care when Biden tripped, I though Chase's take on Ford was cruel and unfair....and I am tired of all of this NONSENSE opinion journalism

TALK ABOUT ISSUES - do some work for God's sake, stop pandering
I also could give zero damns about if the Dr. Seuss estate takes some books off the shelf, if Disney+ doesn't let 7-year-olds watch whatever they want, or if Cardi B sings about sex at 10 pm on television
Side note, if you were really concerned about sex and violence on TV,, you would have been screaming about the fact that pretty much any movie or show can now be on television at any hour....and you would not be upset about the Disney+ thing (which gives parents more control)
Read 4 tweets
19 Mar
Another thing that really is starting to get well-beyond tired....

Calling out President Biden for stumbling over text and acting like that means he is "seriously ill"

Biden has always done that and is a stutterer....it is not funny anymore, stop being jerks
If you want to go after him on substance, great....but seriously, stop being terrible human beings
This would be like mocking FDR for not being an "appropriately Presidential dancer".....yes, Biden stumbles with words and sometimes says the wrong words....He is a life long stutterer and has always struggled at times...at other times, he repeats poems from memory
Read 4 tweets

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