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Jens von Bergmann Profile picture
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7 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
It would be extremely beneficial for everyone if the BCCDC could put out a document laying out the evidence behind this claim, showing how things are different in BC than in other places in the world.
BC public health has made this claim before and the "evidence" that was presented was ridiculously bad. Artificially shifted timelines, data not normalized, just amateur hour all the way.
Since then we have seen the relative incidence of children move up. We have seen something similar happen in England as B.1.1.7 became more prevalent, it's unclear if there are similar reasons here as we don't have proper data on VOC, let along broken down by age groups.
It's challenging to make robust arguments based on changes in relative incidence by age groups, it requires careful work. And when making claims that go against what other places have seen, it needs to be laid out openly and in detail.

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Jens von Bergmann Profile picture
7 Apr
BC got 6 days of data today, after the long weekend data blackout preceded by a day of technical difficulties that apparently could not get resolved before now. Trend line is now a little above 1050 cases a day and still trending upward.
All Health Authorities except Northern are at record levels. We should start to see the effect of the change in measures slowing growth this week, but they likely won't be enough to reverse the growth given the share of VOC we are at now.
Almost all health regions are growing strongly now. As we said before, in absence of VOC data that's the best indication we have that we have failed to prevent VOCs from spreading beyond their initial hot spots.
Read 4 tweets
Jens von Bergmann Profile picture
6 Apr
BC ties themselves into a knot with various competing layers of property taxes. Businesses are now paying the Speculation and Vacancy tax on the air parcels introduced to lessen the load of rising commercial property taxes. vancouversun.com/news/local-new…
It totally sucks for the businesses (and should probably get fixed), but it's a lot of fun for people following the various tax quirks. Let's unravel this. Firstly, commercial tenants in BC generally pay the property taxes as part of their "triple-net" lease.
Rent negotiations at the beginning of the (typically 5-year) lease will account for that, so long term the property taxes are borne by the landlord. But tenants have to deal with tax fluctuations during that lease, and they are generally not good at accounting for the risk.
Read 9 tweets
Jens von Bergmann Profile picture
31 Mar
New preprint with BC N501Y screening data is out! First time I have seen proper VOC data out in public. Data is old now, but let's take a look what we can learn about data up to week 9, so end of February. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Before we go there, the preprint also has this neat summary of the point-prevalence study that @PennyDaflos also wrote about. The data in the preprint is about the left branch, N501Y screening. Positive results are presumed to be VOC. In BC that will be B.1.1.7 in most cases.
There are also some (small) false positives. This shows 1% prevalence of VOC at the beginning of February. This is still news because our PHO has still not corrected this after repeatedly claiming prevalences was 0.1%, and did not correct this even when asked directly.
Read 12 tweets
Jens von Bergmann Profile picture
30 Mar
Over a year ago StatCan released the first set of CHS data that showed frighteningly high rates of forced moves in BC. @LausterNa and I dug into recently released PUMF data to add context, see how this varies within BC, and how it has changed over time. doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2021/03/2…
This is a follow-up on this over a year old post that looked at forced moved (and other data) from the CHS when the first tables were released. The PUMF data we got now allows to paint a fuller picture. doodles.mountainmath.ca/blog/2019/11/2…
What can be learned about forced moves from PUMF data? Firstly, instead of looking a share of moves that are forced, we can look at risk of forced moves in the past year. And Vancouver comes out in the middle of the pack.
Read 5 tweets
Jens von Bergmann Profile picture
30 Mar
It's Monday, and BC got 4 days worth of data after skipping Friday's update and the usual weekend data blackout. (What pandemic?) And as expected, it's looking bad. The trend is at almost 900 daily cases now.
Vancouver Coastal has now overtaken Fraser with the highest case incidence, and cases are also clearly rising in Island and Interior Health Authorities.
North Shore Garibaldi has the highest incidence in cases, but it's not the only health region with steep increases.
Read 7 tweets
Jens von Bergmann Profile picture
28 Mar
Hey, my favourite Vancouver single family lots are for sale! Lots of stories behind these lots, they have been tossed back and forth between investment companies over the years. The proposed homes look awful and are likely just an attempt to avoid the EHT. squamishchief.com/real-estate-ne…
These lots have featured prominently on the @ahvancouver walking tours of Vancouver's worst zoning. The biggest of the three lots is Vancouver's largest non-sub-dividable RS lot at almost 3 acres in size.
Apart from this being a prime example of how functionally useless some of Vancouver's zoning is, there are great stories connected to those lots. @ahvancouver dug up a lot of neat history, and @ron_usher has great stories about recent investors (and attempted scams).
Read 4 tweets

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