1/ Most lockdown supporters don't understand cost-benefit policy analysis. The question is not whether lockdowns reduce Covid rates. The answer to that is a clear "yes": how could they not? Banning movement reduces infections, much like banning cars would reduce traffic deaths.
2/ The question is whether lockdowns prevent enough additional Covid cases *as compared to other policies*, such as warnings and advice. The question is also whether lockdowns prevent significantly more Covid cases than *the normal response of average citizens* to rising case
3/ numbers. The vast majority of people will react to rising case numbers by limiting travel and taking precautions on their own. How much does a formal government lockdown add to these voluntary precautions? What is the *marginal* added effect of lockdowns over government advice
4/ and voluntary compliance? *That* is the proper way to calculate the benefit of lockdowns -- the extra *marginal* behavior change they achieve (by coercion). The evidence suggests this *marginal extra* reduction from lockdowns is not large. cspicenter.org/blog/waronscie…
5/ But this isn't the end! We also have to calculate the *cost* of lockdowns. These are (1) tangible costs -- reductions in economic activity; (2) psychological costs (depression, substance abuse), and (3) liberty costs -- governments preventing citizens from exercising many
6/ fundamental rights -- to travel, to demonstrate, to operate their business, the list goes on. Now of course there will be tangible and psychological costs to voluntary behavior change -- people will reduce risky activites, and this will have an economic effect.
7/ This voluntary reduction in activity will also have psychological effects. But lockdowns certainly contribute significant *additional* tangible and psychological harm -- there's a difference between deciding not to vacation because you think it's risky, and being forced to.
8/ stay home against your will. And only lockdowns damage liberty. Nobody should welcome governments shutting down major liberties for literally months on end. That is a political and social disaster which should be taken very seriously.
9/ So the question is: Do lockdowns -- as opposed to less intrusive measures -- *prevent* so much harm that the harm they *cause* is justified? Based on the situation right now, when we know much more about Covid and have better treatments, I say the answer is a clear "no". END
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