1/ What would I have done to contain Covid if I were King of Europe? In the first phase, when we didn't know much about the disease, lockdowns until enough data had been gathered about risk/mortality/treatment, etc. Pour billions into vaccines starting Day 1, perhaps
2/ announcing a contest. During the late Spring/summer lull, which happens with all respiratory viruses, begin aggressive contact tracing. Temporarily suspend data-privacy regulations and create a vigorous, workable tracing app. Setting the GDPR aside is a whole lot
3/ less of a rights violation than a lockdown, isn't it? Organize massive track and trace teams to figure out where the virus is most likely to circulate. At the same time, during the summer, create thousands of portable container ICU beds and a staff of well-paid
4/ roving emergency room doctors and nurses on-call to deal with any flare-ups and the inevitable case spike in winter. China built an entire hospital in a few weeks; the only thing stopping Europe from doing this is, well, the European mentality. Which needs to be jettisoned.
5/ Lift the lockdowns in the early summer. Start an intensive voluntary public-health campaign about masks, social distancing, ventilation, enclosed spaces. Encourage people to spend as much time outside as possible. Rely on the good sense of the majority of people.
6/ When the inevitable winter wave hits, don't panic. Tell people this is normal with all viruses. Use the information gathered over the summer to aggressively track-and-trace outbreaks. Lockdown or restrict those activities/places which pose the greatest risk, and *only*
7/ those. Accommodate severely ill patients in ICU containers and exhibition centers, etc. transformed into overflow catchment areas. Import doctors from less hard-hit countries, and reward them generously. Above all, communicate accurate, clear, and sober information
8/ to the public: *this* is where your risk is highest, *this* is where it's lowest. Be honest about who is dying from Covid and why. Tell people the virus is here to stay, and will mutate, but that we can use technology and common sense to live with it
9/ without sacrificing our freedoms. When vaccines are finally approved, buy 3 times the population numbers. Pay every German/European €40 for each jab, which will put money in consumer pockets and stimulate demand. Flood every city with drive-through/walk-through vaccine
10/ one on every street corner. Have face-paint for the kiddies, cold beer for the adults. Do away with bureaucracy; have fresh vaccination passes for people who don't have one. Register everything online. And watch case numbers plummet.
11/ Would this be costly? Of course it would -- but lockdowns cost much, much more, both financially and emotionally. Will it allow more Covid cases than a total lockdown? Probably, but the benefits outweigh the extra cases. In my view, this is what a competent,
aggressive, but *balanced* and *proportional* response would have looked like. A pity Europe, with its vase pool of resources and talent, couldn't organize this. But then again, Europe gets the politicians it votes for...
*vast

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More from @AndrewHammel1

7 Apr
1/ Most lockdown supporters don't understand cost-benefit policy analysis. The question is not whether lockdowns reduce Covid rates. The answer to that is a clear "yes": how could they not? Banning movement reduces infections, much like banning cars would reduce traffic deaths.
2/ The question is whether lockdowns prevent enough additional Covid cases *as compared to other policies*, such as warnings and advice. The question is also whether lockdowns prevent significantly more Covid cases than *the normal response of average citizens* to rising case
3/ numbers. The vast majority of people will react to rising case numbers by limiting travel and taking precautions on their own. How much does a formal government lockdown add to these voluntary precautions? What is the *marginal* added effect of lockdowns over government advice
Read 9 tweets
6 Apr
@transatlantic @DavidVickery1 See, the problem with your reasoning is that whenever cases *fall* after governments impose lockdowns or other restrictions, you always attribute that to the lockdown. When cases *rise* after loosening, you attribute that to the loosening.
When cases *rise* after lockdowns, you say they would have risen further without them. When they *fall* after loosening, that just means other factors hindered the spread. It's a classic of selective biased reasoning, heads I win, tails you lose.
I'm inviting you to take the long-term perspective based on longitudinal time-series data, not random noisy news blips here and there. And when you look at that data thoroughly, as I have (and you haven't), it emerges that there is *no clear relationship* between
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov 20
1/ There are plenty of Euros smugly turning up their nose at America's "election chaos" who don't understand a number of key things about the USA. Almost all European countries (in fact, most countries) have mandatory government registration of all residents.
2/ Anytime you move, you must notify government authorities of your new address. Europeans, who have lived with strong centralized states for centuries, simply accept this and have a hard time imagining how it could be different. And it's easy to keep these records in small
3/ countries with small populations. So in Germany, when elections happen, the government sends a vote authorization notice to your address, which you then take to the polls along with your national ID card. This indeed makes for simple elections, since the state
Read 12 tweets

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