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7 Apr, 7 tweets, 4 min read
$HIMX released Prelim Q1 results - & oh me days!

Q1 Rev +12.1% qoq to $309.6M (consensus was $295M & vs mngmt guidance of 5-10% qoq growth). Represents +67.7% yoy grwth

40.2% Gross margin (!!) vs guidance of 37-38%. Means gross profit = $125M or +197% yoy!

THIS IS MENTAL
$HIMX Q1'21 EPS of 38.3c vs 30-34c guidance.

Compares to 19.5c in Q4'20 (+96.5%!!) and 1.9c in Q1 last year - (we all love a 10x)

Rev, gross margin & EPS - all hit new RECORDS - due to high demand across all segments

Robust demand and no signs of semi shortage receding.
$HIMX Q1'21 consensus per Bloomberg was for $295M rev (+5% beat) and 38.4% gross margin (+180bps beat!)

Per my calcs, Operating Income = $62m - representing a +1,230% yoy growth (or +$57.3m)

Expect AT LEAST doubling of FCF to c$15m in Q1 alone.

EXPECT STRONG Q2 as well.
$HIMX post +5.2% pre-market to $15.2

Still see FV > $20-$25 & possibly even closer to $30 in FY21 on this perf.

Own $15 May'21 and $15 Jan'22 calls - $HIMX is my 2nd largest position at 11.9% of portfolio

Happy Days :)
@unai_k2 @alexcutler247 @FranciscoES2021 @cfromhert @BullishAngel @BahamaBen9 @Nick_HuynhMPLS @NiclasVestlund @FacelessTrader @DZierler @Retirefund
Let's just say the wife looks happy and looks like May will be a good month.

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More from @Yield_Fanatic

YieldFanatic Profile picture
3 Apr
@ChrisGuthrie A big part of my arg on existing games is that 'garbage' can still be monetized successfully.

There are many orgs out there that monetize what you & I may consider 'garbage' but off which a successful biz may be built.
@ChrisGuthrie For eg. The $AMZN bookstore concept was initially garbage to me....but the success speaks for itself.

I doubt we will see $SKLZ joining hands with large devs on existing titles like Call of Duty. The model only works if all both/all players in the specific game are betting...
@ChrisGuthrie ...so if you extend the existing title onto $SKLZ for monetisation - you run the risk of having the same game across 2 diff apps... Viability is questionable.

This however doesn't mean they don't join hands on new titles. All we need on $SKLZ is a new blockbuster hit...
Read 7 tweets
YieldFanatic Profile picture
2 Apr
1/
 Long read for the Long weekend: Mega thread on $SKLZ

This isn’t an easy investment – one needs to take the high risk here into account.

To me, the risk-adj return here warrants a position. $SKLZ is now my 3rd largest position given higher conviction – 11.3% of portfolio
2/
 Before I start, $SKLZ is a divisive name

I truly appreciate the different schools of thought.

We are allowed to have our own opinions – the difference in opinion is what creates a market

If we all had the same opinion, price would be crazy &there likely wouldn’t be a trade
3/
Differences in opinion are healthy….but arguments are not.

I do welcome an open constructive conversation, as at the end of the day, all our thesis, whether Bull or Bear, are built on assumptions.

However, I urge everyone to keep things civil :)

OK lets start.
Read 117 tweets
YieldFanatic Profile picture
26 Mar
$TRMR
Issues notice for EGM on 30 Apr. Shareholders asked to

- amend Articles of Association to allow for and adopt new director to enable $TRMR to comply with SEC requirements, and

- allow $TRMR to issue 15% of share capital and asking shareholders to waive pre-emption rights
2/
 Also includes no. of ExCo renumeration amendments including "entitlement to a special IPO bonus" of $500k each to CEO, CFO and CCO on successful completion of US Dual Listing.
3/
 Resolution no 11 - ala waiver of pre-emption rights - $TRMR states

"there may be occasions, however, when the directors need the flexibility to finance business opportunities by the issue of shares for cash without a pre-emptive offer to existing shareholders, such as in..
Read 9 tweets
YieldFanatic Profile picture
25 Mar
1/
 A nice little write up on $SKLZ. I couldn't have put it in a better way.

We cant compare $SKLZ's fin statements to monetization dynamics in pre deal preso.

(contd)
2/
A lot more goes into generating top line growth. For the foreseeable future at least, I expect $SKLZ's growth spend to quite clearly overshadow immediate revenue growth.

This needs to be factored into any analysis.
3/
 In other words, we are not going to see immediate substantial revenue growth here - rev growth is more likely to be lumpy than big qoq growth in most other SaaS biz. $SKLZ is not one of those.

Yes $SKLZ is reliant on a few too games - as is $SE and they have milked it so far.
Read 8 tweets
YieldFanatic Profile picture
25 Mar
$HIMX - bought a chunk of $15 May'21 calls at 60c

Short-ish dated calls are quite aggressive given my fundamental these here, but to me, $HIMX at these levels is a no brainer.

Either my wife gets v happy come May or I end up in the streets. Seems like an asymmetric payoff :D
Call expiry is 21st May. Q1 results expectation is 7 May.

So a couple of weeks in between for the stock price to reflect the expected outperformance for this year.

RV wise I have $HIMX at $20-$24 based on LTM rev, but with +30% rev growth exp, shld reprice to $25-$30 NTM
This is now my 2nd largest position at 8.9%. Overtook $TWTR calls given recent decline (but holding steady).

My original $HIMX thesis here:
Read 4 tweets
YieldFanatic Profile picture
4 Mar
1/THREAD

I strongly feel that we need a mkt correction but I do not believe this is the time when such a correction will materialise.

In other words, I expect a broad market rally in the near term, once the mkt digests what both politicians & central banks want to do, globally.
2/
 Powell's speech today was v interesting.

A. The short term rise in inflation we will see, will just be that - short term, not sustainable.

B. US economy is not even close to being in full employment which is what the Fed wants to see

I.e. no rate rises this yr at least.
3/
 Even more interesting was Powell mentioning the Fed had not met its own condition for rate rises, even before the pandemic!

So, employment figures will have to be much higher than pre pandemic levels.

Now we understand what he meant by 'nowhere close to' rate rises.
Read 21 tweets

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