Tweet

Jawad Mian

Follow @jsmian

8 Apr, 12 tweets, 2 min read

A few simple realizations have changed the way I operate my life.

First, I don’t know everything.

(This took a shockingly long time to admit).

Second, I won’t know everything.

(Feeling exasperated seeing my pile of unread books).

Third, thankfully, realizing I don’t need to know everything.

(The older Jawad didn’t believe that).

It’s okay to say, “I don’t know.”

I don’t need to form my own opinions and judgement on everything.

Fourth, there are people out there way smarter than me.

(This is what made me lean on building a community).

Fifth, I can trust their experience and expertise.

(I don’t need to do the work myself).

I’m happy to surrender to their view.

I find all this very liberating.

When it comes to #bitcoin, I was a skeptic.

What changed for me was getting to know Wences Casares.

Wences is one of the smartest people I’ve ever met.

So, when he says something, I listen.

I’m happy to surrender to Wences when it comes to #bitcoin —just like I’m happy to surrender to Iqbal, Rumi, Emerson, my grandfather and many others in different areas of my life.

I don’t need to use my own intellect.

Recently, Wences joined us to share his wisdom about bitcoin.

You can watch the full interview here (members-only). stray-reflections.com/event/27/Bitco…

Here’s a pared-down version of our salon discussion. stray-reflections.com/article/179/Wi…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @jsmian

Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 Apr

Is our capacity to learn from experience and illusion?

Worth revisiting March 2020 in a non-reactive, non-judgmental way, simply a moment by moment reflection on events.

It started like any other year. Wall Street strategists published their bullish forecasts with expectations for a market melt-up.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, the most bearish strategist, increased his target for the S&P 500 to as high as 3,500 in the first half of 2020.

Read 65 tweets

Jawad Mian

@jsmian

13 Mar

1) There are some truths that are so obvious that we never question them. The virtues of value investing is one of them.

Time to renovate demonstrably false old truths. 🤓stray-reflections.com/article/166

2) Value investing has held a structural advantage when considered over multiple market cycles.

From 1927 through 2019, value stocks outperformed growth stocks 93 percent of the time over rolling 15-year time periods.

3) Value's worst-ever performance when compared to growth stocks last decade is vexing.

Should investors adjust to the changing landscape or side with a truism that has stood the test of time?

Read 16 tweets

Jawad Mian

@jsmian

11 Mar

Come, seek

For seeking is the foundation of fortune;
Every success depends on focusing the heart,

Unconcerned with the business of the world,
Keep saying with all your soul, “Ku,ku,” like the dove

Even though you’re not equipped, Keep searching
Whoever you see engaged in search,

Become her friend and cast your head in front of her,
For choosing to be a neighbor of seekers,
You become one yourself

Day and night you are a traveller in a ship,
You are under the protection of a life-giving spirit

Read 6 tweets

Jawad Mian

@jsmian

9 Mar

1) As we try to unscramble the complexity of markets, we are always seeking a measure of order from the apparent randomness.

It is interesting to us how markets (mis)behave. As Benoit Mandelbrot said, the chaos and irregularity of the world is something to be celebrated.

2) A self-described “wandering scientist,” pursuing what he called “unpredictable interests,” Benoit Mandelbrot moved across many disciplines at once to find new insights.

3) He spent much of his life as an outsider, seeking to extract an element of order in physical, mathematical, or social phenomena characterized by wild variability.

Read 19 tweets

Jawad Mian

@jsmian

5 Mar

1) Since the Second World War, there have been three secular bull cycles with numerous cyclical trends occurring in between.

Thinking through them, we can guess what might be coming next. 🤔
stray-reflections.com/article/145/On…

2) The first was from 1950 to 1968.

The S&P 500 rose from 20 to 109 for a gain of 440 percent.

But twelve years into the secular bull market, there was a violent correction.

3) In 1961, stocks had risen 27 percent, with leading technology stocks like Texas Instruments and Polaroid trading at up to 115 times earnings.

And then, stocks “broke,” as The Wall Street Journal described it, seemingly out of the blue.

Read 20 tweets

Jawad Mian

@jsmian

3 Mar

1) Five years ago, Ken Langone asked Stan Druckenmiller, "What is the biggest mistake you made and what did you learn from it?"

2) Druck said in 1999, after Yahoo and AOL had already gone up ten-fold, he decided to short internet stocks.

He placed a $200 million bet in February and was down $600 million by mid-March.

3) He was very proud of the fact that he never had a down year but now his fund was down 15%.

"I'm finished," he thought.

Read 10 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Share this page!

Jawad Mian

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @jsmian

Jawad Mian

Jawad Mian

Jawad Mian

Jawad Mian

Jawad Mian

Jawad Mian

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?