1/5: Yesterday I put out a post about Investor Rights and it’s definitely been the catalyst for some interesting conversations. I appreciate the thoughtful perspectives on the topic and in full disclosure, my firm has been on both sides of the issue so I “get it”.
2/5: Based on some DMs that I’ve received and the dialogue that followed (with Investors who I respect immensely), I think a few additional points are worth pointing out:
3/5: Many downstream investors can’t add nearly as much value as some of the best Angel and Seed Investors out there. Not all investors are the same and therefore being “fair and equitable” means treating different investors differently.
4/5: Issuing term sheets that allow everyone to be happy should be a normal practice. Sometimes a situation doesn’t allow this which really sucks. My main takeaway from being in the middle of many deals recently is that the environment is making collective happiness difficult.
5/5: So to all the people who reached out to chat – thank you. Debate and discussion help me refine frameworks. And while Twitter is a medium I’ve grown to love, the format isn’t fantastic for topics that require nuance. Too much context hits the cutting room floor.

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More from @fintechjunkie

8 Apr
1/22: The inflows of new participants to the stock market is impressive. Trading volumes are up and the % of everyday people holding stocks is on the rise. But there are signs that these new investors have non-traditional views about what owning a share of stock represents.👇 Image
2/22: Instead of immediately delivering the punchline (which I’ll get to), here are two charts that when combined define the crux of the mental shift.

The first is a chart that shows the correlation of share price to earnings per share (Source: @awealthofcs): Image
3/22: This chart is strong proof that over time there’s a near perfect correlation between stock prices and earnings. Stock prices go up when earnings go up. Therefore, the enterprise value of a company ultimately collapses to a function of how much money it makes.
Read 22 tweets
6 Apr
1/15: Early stage investors have gotten really creative over the past few years with the rights they’ve negotiated in their deals. But guess what? In today’s market the rights aren’t being honored like the Investors expected. A quick thread on what’s going on and why:
2/15: The issue starts with the nature of the asset class as a whole. Here are a few “facts” about VC investing:

First: The average VC investment delivers negative returns. A commonly sited statistic is that 75% of all VC backed startups don’t return capital to investors.
3/15: Second: Producing outsized returns requires finding right-hand tail companies. If you’re a typical early stage investor, you want to protect or grow your investment because the return profile of follow-ons is better than investing in a new unknown company.
Read 16 tweets
26 Mar
1/25: We’re witnessing one of the most exciting periods in VC history. Funding is flowing freely, valuations are stratospheric and gigantic exits have become the norm. As a VC this should feel great, but does it? Maybe not. What follows is a rant that bears my soul on the topic:
2/25: Many Investors have offered their insights on this topic, most of whom provide clever narratives that justify what’s unfolding in front of us. I felt that given the huge amount of speculation running rampant I’d share my inner dialogue rather than a buttoned-up perspective.
3/25: My inner dialogue starts with shock, awe and distrust. For those who are new to investing, it’s important to understand that what’s happening in the private and public markets is truly amazing. This isn’t a normal environment and it can’t be easily explained.
Read 25 tweets
19 Mar
1/21: Many people have asked why #Banks can’t just copy #Fintech functionality and then crush them with their scale and advantaged funding and regulatory apparatus. It’s because they’re in the “functional relief” business vs. the “magical transcendence” business. Unpacked:
2/21: While so many Banks want to believe that they can compete with best-of-breed Fintech companies, it’s a **mostly** true generalization that the two factions don’t approach product construction and service delivery in the same manner.
3/21: For any given product or service, Banks ask themselves: “What problem does the customer want us to solve?” and “How can we deliver a solution in a safe and compliant manner?” and “What friction can we reduce in the process that will remove costs and improve throughput?”
Read 21 tweets
16 Mar
1/18: My first post about #BTC and it’s a challenge for the #BTC community:

This🧵details 4 questions that I’m wrestling with regarding #BTC. In full disclosure, I have a very deep understanding of the benefits of #BTC but I’m not yet on board. Help me get there:
2/18: Q1: Having a central currency allows our government to print money for a variety of reasons. While not everyone agrees with every reason for printing money, it does help our country navigate urgent situations that require the government to procure goods and services.
3/18: A good example of this was WWII. The Fed wanted to finance the war with debt as much as possible to spread the distorting burden of higher taxation out over as many years as possible. 40% was paid for with increases in taxes but 60% was funded with debt.
Read 18 tweets
8 Mar
1/6: I've been spending a lot of time this past year thinking about inflation in the US. There are skeptics and there are some that believe the signs and portents are here.

(I think it's already here and that our systems aren't tuned to measure it correctly)

A few fun stats:
2/6: The highest inflation rate ever observed in the US was 29.78% in 1778.

Since the introduction of the CPI, the highest inflation rate observed in the US was 19.66% in 1917.
3/6: The most dramatic deflationary period in U.S. history took place between 1930 and 1933, during the Great Depression.

The closest the United States has ever gotten to hyperinflation was during the Civil War (1860–1865) and only in the Confederate states.
Read 6 tweets

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