1/18: My first post about #BTC and it’s a challenge for the #BTC community:

This🧵details 4 questions that I’m wrestling with regarding #BTC. In full disclosure, I have a very deep understanding of the benefits of #BTC but I’m not yet on board. Help me get there:
2/18: Q1: Having a central currency allows our government to print money for a variety of reasons. While not everyone agrees with every reason for printing money, it does help our country navigate urgent situations that require the government to procure goods and services.
3/18: A good example of this was WWII. The Fed wanted to finance the war with debt as much as possible to spread the distorting burden of higher taxation out over as many years as possible. 40% was paid for with increases in taxes but 60% was funded with debt.
4/18: I’ve heard the theory of reducing the effective cost of debt via modest inflation described as the avoidance of getting hit on the head with a hammer really hard once in return for getting tapped on the head with a hammer very gently for a decade.
5/18: So does this mean that if someone moved all their assets into #BTC that they would bear none of the costs of an effort equivalent to WWII? Our modern equivalency might be the upcoming battle against climate change so do #BTC HODLers avoid paying their share?
6/18: Q2: While true that #BTC is limited in supply, digital currencies are by definition infinitely abundant because they exist in code. It’s true that as long as everyone agrees that #BTC is valuable then it’s valuable. But this is true with every digital currency.
7/18: So if #BTC prices continue to rise and only a fraction of the world has any exposure of materiality, why wouldn’t someone create a new genesis block in a new digital currency that functions identically to #BTC and allow for newcomers to “get in early?”
8/18: It obviously would take people to back the infrastructure associated with the new chain and evangelists with glowing eyes to explain the “what” and the “why”, but given the prize at play this could be assembled relatively easily.
9/18: Q3: The immutability of transactions is seen by many as a feature but in some important contexts it can be seen as a major flaw. Banks rely on the reversibility feature every day to stop fraudulent activities and paper trails have their advantages.
10/18: The same is true with valuable physical goods. If they can be found, they can be recovered and put back in the hands of their rightful owner because the Provenance/Ownership hasn’t changed hands in a legal fashion.
11/18: Ex: The Stolen Jewelry Website of the Jewelers' Security Alliance provides a central clearinghouse for the jewelry industry, law enforcement, insurance agents and the public to share information on jewelry that has been stolen or recovered in the United States.
12/18: Consumers like protections. Businesses like legal help when they’ve been robbed. So is #BTC a “finders keepers” system or are there protocols or systems that allow transactions to be reversed and/or reclaimed if stolen and found?
13/18: Q4: I think it’s fair to say that it’s a truism that typical consumers lose stuff with regularity. In the digital world they lose passwords all the time. In the physical world they lose ATM and credit cards. They lose everything that isn’t nailed down.
14/18: But for just about everything in life, there’s a recovery protocol that allows a person or company to replace lost items or access accounts that they’ve lost credentials for. These protocols provide multiple methods and levels of proof depending on the circumstances.
15/18: And for just about everything in life, in case of impairment/death of an item’s owner, it can be recovered by family members/legal representatives. With proof, safety deposit boxes can be opened, bank accounts can be accessed, and household safes can be drilled.
16/18: The same is true in business. Even if a departing employee does their absolute best to change passwords and mess with the credentials to a business’s bank accounts (or software, etc), there are ways for a business to recover access.
17/18: So what happens to one’s #BTC if something were to happen suddenly and plans weren’t made in advance to provide access to another party? Is there a recovery protocol? Should there be? How has this ben handled by the various custodial services?
18/18: Speaking my own truth, I wish the best to all the #BTC believers out there. I’m trying to gain as much perspective as I can and would love the help of the community to sharpen my thinking on the topic. Tag someone who can help – and thanks to everyone in advance!

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More from @fintechjunkie

8 Mar
1/6: I've been spending a lot of time this past year thinking about inflation in the US. There are skeptics and there are some that believe the signs and portents are here.

(I think it's already here and that our systems aren't tuned to measure it correctly)

A few fun stats:
2/6: The highest inflation rate ever observed in the US was 29.78% in 1778.

Since the introduction of the CPI, the highest inflation rate observed in the US was 19.66% in 1917.
3/6: The most dramatic deflationary period in U.S. history took place between 1930 and 1933, during the Great Depression.

The closest the United States has ever gotten to hyperinflation was during the Civil War (1860–1865) and only in the Confederate states.
Read 6 tweets
4 Mar
1/33: So you want to be a top performing #VC investor. Here are six exercises you can practice as you evaluate #startups that will hone your skills, establish frameworks, and help identify great investments.

Read on if you’re interested:
2/33: Exercise 1: Describe the company’s magical experience

After reading a deck or hearing a pitch, can you easily articulate who their perfect customer is and how they’d interact with the company’s product/service in a perfect manner?
3/33: Only after you understand the experience that a company is trying to create can you evaluate it against currently available options. If the new experience is truly magical and differentiated then it might be worth your time.
Read 33 tweets
24 Feb
1/25: It was amazing to see the reaction to the thread by @dunkhippo33 about “why ownership doesn’t matter for early stage investing”. There are great nuggets in her thread but I have a very different perspective and counter-argument.

The case for why ownership DOES matter:
2/25: The main argument that @dunkhippo33 makes is that “multiples on invested capital” is all that matters. While this is a truism, the argument glosses over fund dynamics and how much easier it is to produce great fund returns with a concentrated vs dispersed portfolio.
3/25: Let’s start with the typical distribution of outcomes in an early stage fund. Most investments in the fund end up doing “OK” or they completely flame out. The bottom 75-90% of the investments will end up collectively returning 0.5-1.0X to the fund.
Read 25 tweets
19 Feb
1/19: I asked a number of institutional LPs that invest in VC funds what they thought about the recent rise in exit valuations and if the resulting VC results were going to impact their view of managers and allocations.

You might be surprised about what they said! Unpacked:
2/19: Theme #1: A significant number of VC funds are posting better than expected returns driven partially by companies in their portfolios going public in today’s crazy environment. The LPs have an interesting view of what this means/how it impacts their view of specific VCs.
3/19: Many funds that were forecasted to deliver 1.5X MOIC are going to end up as 3X+ MOIC funds due to today’s late stage private and public market valuations. They love the returns but care about how they were generated as much as the actual outcome.
Read 20 tweets
17 Feb
1/6: It seems to be a trend that’s hit peak levels during the pandemic, but people in the #startup ecosystem are throwing themselves into their jobs to the detriment of everything else in their lives. It reminds me of a funny story. Image
2/6: One day, a startup developer was walking down a road when a frog crossed his path. The frog hopped around to get his attention. The developer stopped out of curiosity and was amazed when the frog spoke. "If you kiss me, I will turn into a beautiful princess."
3/6: The developer picked up the frog and placed it in his pocket. The frog was confused and assumed the message wasn’t heard. So the frog went one step further. "If you kiss me, I’ll turn into a beautiful princess and we can go out on the town and have fun together.”
Read 6 tweets
15 Feb
1/25: It’s been 6-months since I posted a thread about the trend of early stage companies raising of 2-3 back-to-back rounds with minimal progress in-between. I asked some amazing VCs whether or not anything has changed since. They think it’s gotten worse. Their thoughts:
2/25: We still have the conversation with Founders every few weeks if not more often: “How much can you learn how quickly for how much money?” This is even true for first equity rounds which are the bigger problem for us right now. (@iamjakestream)
3/25: The why: Many large VCs are incented to put money to work because in they’re playing an AUM game and need to show their LPs they have access to all the “hot companies”. (@iamjakestream)
Read 25 tweets

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