Further drop in cases in the most recent week following a bit of a flattening off in previous weeks - with some of this due to school holidays and fewer LFD tests.
Worth noting that for March, both REACT and ONS surveys suggest that case rates are generally static.
Big drop in LFD use, which is mainly due to a drop in test use by secondary schools (see T&T data).
The drop off has accelerated with the school holidays, but the move from testing in school to at home may have contributed over the past few weeks.
The % of tests coming back positive has really encouragingly fallen both for PCR tests (now just 1.6% from 1.9%) and for LFD tests (now 0.18% down from 0.25%).
However, T&T data to 31st March suggest positivity in secondary schools is largely unchanged at 0.17% compared to 0.19% wk before.
Start of school hols (therefore stopping LFD test use) has seen case rates for 10-19y/o dramatically fall back into the pack.
And T&T data show that wk ending 31st March, positivity in 2ndry schools has only dropped a little (to 0.17% from 0.19%).
This suggests fall in case rates among 10-19y/o seen in PHE data is likely mainly from less LFD test use rather than necessarily fewer people infected.
But encouragingly it also doesn't point to clear spread into older ages, where case rates and positivity continue to fall.
Both REACT-1 & ONS surveys show that population prevalence remains highest in 5-9y/o, but this doesn't show in the PHE data on case rates as they are only based on those getting tested.
However, the PHE positivity data does point to this.
The differences by ethnicity are less marked, which will also reflect how a greater proportion of younger people - where case rates have fallen - are from Black, Asian and mixed ethnic groups.
When broken down by age, differences by deprivation remain, although interesting to see narrower differences among 17-19y/os.
REACT again today highlighted the big differences in infection rates by deprivation.
In terms of outbreaks reported to PHE, great to see that last week's rise in care home outbreaks may have just been a one off.
And school hols also mean a big drop for school outbreak/incident notifications.
Outbreak notifications also remain low in hospitals and workplaces.
Hospitalisations generally lag 1-3wks behind infections, so it's v positive that despite ONS and REACT data suggesting falls in infection rates may have stalled in March, hosp admissions are still falling.
As do deaths.
Finally, vaccine uptake rates remain incredibly high - a remarkable 90%+ among all age groups over 65yrs.
This will mask variation by ethnicity and deprivation, so continued efforts here remain v important.
Looks 11-30 March (schools fully reopened on 8th March).
- Suggests infection rates fell by around 60% between Feb and March to 0.2%
- Big differences by age, region, and deprivation
- R now estimated at approx 1.
PHE latest COVID surveillance report now out, as is ONS.
Covers 22nd-28th March 🧵
tl,dr:
-cases down all ages except 10-19yrs.
-Significant geographical variation.
-Vax still motoring.
Fall in case rates in all age gps (incl 5-9y/o) *except* for 10-19y/o where they've increased by 7% to 110 cases/100,000.
Lowest cases rates are among 70-79y/o at just 11/100,000, and generally there's a step decrease in case rates for ages 60yrs+ compared to those <60yrs.
And among 10-19y/o, case rates seem to be rising mainly among 10-16y/os.
Nearly one in four reception age children and one in three children at year 6 are overweight or obese.
And there are stark inequalities - children in yr 6 are *more than twice* as likely to be obese if living in the most deprived areas compared to the least.
The government is aiming to halve childhood obesity by 2030 and reduce inequalities.
You can't do this with one or two policies here and there. Obesity is complex and multifaceted. To make any kind of dent, you need a multifaceted solution.
This week's PHE surveillance report is now out, covering 15-21 March. 🧵
Tl,dr:
- increasing case rates among 5-9y/o and 10-19y/o
- important geographic variation
- hospital data still improving
- vax going strong
- and inequalities persist.
Number of PCR and LFD tests done similar to the previous week, but positivity (percentage of tests that are positive) for PCR still trending down and is now 2.1%
For LFDs it's 0.19% compared with 0.15% the week before.
Case rates are falling less slowly, but they're still falling across all ages...
*except* 5-9y/o where they're up 59% to 63.5/100,000, and 10-19y/o where they're up 26% to 100.7/100,000.